The Model’s Weekend Stack — GW43/GW44: Two Patents + a Heinz Where the Model Beats Bet365
Championship GW43 and League One GW44 — two 3-pick Patents (model top calls only) plus a combined 6-pick Heinz across ...
Tag: football statistics
Cooked! The Midweek Yankee Post-Mortem — 1 From 4, But the Filters Held
The Yankee went 1-3. The picks missed, but every drop and skip the filter made was correct. A short accountability ...
Midweek Yankee — Four League One Value Picks Where the Model Beats Bet365
Four midweek League One selections where our model's probability estimate diverges from Bet365's price. Three match the model's top call. ...
The Model’s Heinz — GW42 & GW43: Six Fixtures Where the Model Beats Bet365
⚠️ A brief word from our legal department (who are also a Random Forest model): The BTP model is a ...
Predicting the WSL
Predicting the WSL: When the Model Tells You Something Unexpected 🤖 BTP Machine Learning Series The WSL model was built ...
Predicting League One: How the BTP Model Works
Predicting League One: How the BTP Model Works 🤖 BTP Machine Learning Series League One returns after the international break ...
Predicting the Championship
Predicting the Championship: How the BTP Model Works 🤖 BTP Machine Learning Series The Championship resumes after the international break ...
The Championship Lottery
Championship Analysis • 2019/20–2024/25 The Championship Lottery What does it actually take to win promotion — and how thin is ...
Hull City’s Run-In: The Data Behind the Playoff Push
Hull City's Run-In: The Data Behind the Playoff Push Run-In Analysis: Current Position: 4th | Points: 50 pts Form (Last ...
Hull City 2024/25 Season Analysis: Did xG Tell the Story?
Hull City 2024/25 Season Analysis: Did xG Tell the Story? Season Expectations: For the 2024-2025 Championship season, Hull City's expectations ...
Beyond The Prem
Data-first football writing
This site is a hobby project run by a former healthcare professional and computing graduate who likes football and data. There's no monetisation agenda, no ads, and no ambition to become the next big football media brand.
What there is: ML-backed match previews, honest accountability when the model gets it wrong, and analysis covering the Championship, League One and WSL that tries to be genuinely data-driven rather than just opinion dressed up in numbers.
Hull City season ticket holder and Leyton Orient follower — both covered on the site, no bias applied.
Posts go up most days during the season. The model's predictions are published before kick-off and the results tracked openly — good weeks and bad ones.
No agenda. No spin. Just the numbers.