Hull City’s Run-In: The Data Behind the Playoff Push
Current Position: 4th | Points: 50 pts
Form (Last 6): WWWLWD | PPG: 2.17
Games Remaining: 16 | Article Date: 28/01/2026
With 16 games remaining in the Championship season, Hull City sit 5th on 50 points. The playoffs are within touching distance – but can the Tigers navigate their run-in successfully?
Current Form Check
Championship Form Table (Last 6 Games)
Championship Form Table (Last 6 Games)
| Pos | Team | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | WWWLWD | |
| 2 | 12 | DDDWWW | |
| 3 | 12 | WWDDWD | |
| 4 | 11 | WWDWDL | |
| 5 | 11 | DLWDWW | |
| 6 | 11 | LWDWWD | |
| 7 | 11 | DWLWDW | |
| 8 | 10 | WLWWDL | |
| 9 | 9 | DWWDDL | |
| 10 | 9 | DDWWDL | |
| 11 | 9 | LDWDDW | |
| 12 | 9 | WLWLWL | |
| 13 | 9 | LWWLLW | |
| 14 | 8 | WDLDLW | |
| 15 | 7 | DWLLWL | |
| 16 | 7 | DWLLWL | |
| 17 | 7 | LLWWLD | |
| 18 | 6 | DLLDDW | |
| 19 | 6 | DDLDWL | |
| 20 | 6 | DDDLLW | |
| 21 | 5 | DLDLWL | |
| 22 | 2 | DDLLLL | |
| 23 | 1 | LDLLLL | |
| 24 | 1 | DLLLLL |
Updated: 01 Jun 2026, 9:35 AM
13
Points (Last 6)
4
Wins
2.17
PPG (Form)
1.79
PPG (Season)
Hull City Last 10 Results
Hull City - Recent League Form
The Underlying Numbers
5-Match Rolling xG Average
Hull City - 5-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 5-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Actual vs Expected Points
Hull City - Actual Points vs xG Points 2025/2026
Conversion Efficiency
Hull City - Conversion Rates 2025/2026
100% = converting exactly as xG predicts | Attack: higher is better | Defence: lower is better
Home Fortress or Road Warriors?
Home vs Away Split
Hull City - Home vs Away 2025/2026
Home
42 pts from 25 games
Away
38 pts from 24 games
The Critical Run-In
Fixture Difficulty Analysis
Hull City – Upcoming Fixture Difficulty
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Position | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Jan 15:00 |
Blackburn | A | 22th | 1.5 |
| Tue 3 Feb 19:45 |
Watford | H | 8th | 4 |
| Sat 7 Feb 15:01 |
Bristol City | H | 7th | 4 |
| Sat 21 Feb 12:30 |
QPR | H | 12th | 3 |
| Tue 24 Feb 19:45 |
Derby | H | 11th | 3 |
| Sat 28 Feb 12:30 |
Portsmouth | A | 21th | 1.5 |
| Tue 3 Mar 19:45 |
Ipswich | A | 3rd | 5 |
| Sat 7 Mar 15:00 |
Millwall | H | 5th | 4 |
| Tue 10 Mar 19:45 |
Wrexham | A | 6th | 4.5 |
| Sat 14 Mar 15:00 |
West Brom | A | 20th | 1.5 |
| Sat 21 Mar 15:00 |
Sheffield Wednesday | H | 24th | 1 |
| Fri 3 Apr 14:00 |
Oxford United | A | 23th | 1.5 |
| Mon 6 Apr 14:00 |
Coventry | H | 1st | 5 |
| Sat 11 Apr 14:00 |
Sheffield Utd | A | 17th | 1.5 |
| Sat 18 Apr 14:00 |
Birmingham | H | 13th | 2 |
| Wed 22 Apr 18:45 |
Leicester | A | 14th | 2.5 |
| Sat 25 Apr 14:00 |
Charlton | A | 19th | 1.5 |
Difficulty: 1 (easiest) – 5 (hardest) | Updated: 30 Jan 2026, 12:30 PM
Key Fixtures: Hull face 4 games against top-6 sides and 5 against bottom-6. Average difficulty rating of ALL remaining 16 games: 2.8/5.
Current Playoff Picture
Championship – Top 8
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coventry | 29 | 29 | 58 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 29 | 17 | 55 |
| 3 | Ipswich | 28 | 21 | 50 |
| 4 | Hull City | 28 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Millwall | 29 | 1 | 49 |
| 6 | Wrexham | 29 | 6 | 44 |
| 7 | Bristol City | 29 | 9 | 43 |
| 8 | Watford | 28 | 6 | 43 |
The Men to Watch
Yu Hirakawa – Midfielder
Yu Hirakawa Season Stats
Yu Hirakawa
Multiple Clubs • M
Includes: Seasons: 2025; Teams: Bristol City, Hull City; Competitions: CH;
Yu Hirakawa Form Chart
Yu Hirakawa - Form Chart
Average Rating: 6.67
Oliver Robert McBurnie – Striker
Oliver Robert McBurnie Season Stats
O. McBurnie
Hull City • Attacker
Includes: Seasons: 2025; Teams: Hull City; Competitions: CH;
Oliver Robert McBurnie Form Chart
Oliver McBurnie - Form Chart
Average Rating: 6.86
Tactical Patterns
When Hull Score & Concede
Hull City - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
First Goal Impact
Hull City - First Goal Impact 2025/2026
The Verdict: Will Hull Make the Playoffs?
Working in Hull’s Favour
- Finishing is clinical when they get a chance – converting at 142.9% efficiency, well above league average.
- Great team spirit – manager has galvanised the team, performance is greater than the sum of the parts.
- New signings look great so far and more players to return from injury will help maintain the momentum.
- They’ve already banked those 50 points – even with regression, they only need 1.5 PPG for playoffs.
- Favourable fixture list with 5 games against bottom-6 sides and average difficulty of just 2.8/5.
Potential Pitfalls
- Poor record when the first goal goes against them – need to score first to control games.
- High profile cup game against premier league opposition (Chelsea) and former manager could divert attention.
- Massively over-performing xG (+19 points!) – their underlying numbers suggest 15th place, not playoffs.
- Defensive metrics at 90.6% efficiency mask concerning shot quality being conceded.
- Conversion rate of 142.9% is statistically unsustainable – regression to the mean is inevitable.
Final Prediction
Projected Points
74 pts
Final Position
6th
Playoff Chance
70%
Bottom Line: Hull’s staggering +19 xG point over-performance reveals a team punching 19 points above their statistical weight – their underlying numbers (31 xG points) suggest 15th place, not playoff contention. However, they’ve already banked those “lucky” points, and with a favourable run-in (2.8/5 difficulty), even modest regression to 1.5 PPG secures around 74 points and a nervous 6th-place finish. The playoffs are theirs to lose, but this is mathematical borrowed time – enjoy the ride while it lasts.
