Leicester Go Down, Hull Slip Out: Championship Matchday 44 & League One Catch-Up Review
Competitions: Sky Bet Championship (MD 44), Sky Bet League One (6 postponed catch-ups)
Dates: Tuesday 21st – Wednesday 22nd April 2026
Matches: 18 played, 48 goals (avg 2.67 per game)
Previews we wrote: Championship MD 44 preview and League One midweek backlog
Two narratives tightened their grip across the Championship and League One midweek programme. Leicester City’s relegation became mathematical after a 2-2 draw with Hull City at the King Power Stadium, confirming a fall from the 2015/16 Premier League title to the third tier within ten years. For Hull, that same result ended a run of 17 consecutive matchdays inside the top six; they slid to 7th for the first time since 3 February. Twelve Championship fixtures and six League One catch-ups were crammed into 21–22 April, compressing the season’s final sprint. Below, we unpick the data behind the key outcomes across both divisions.
🦊 The Fall of Leicester City — Relegated Ten Years After the Title
23rd place, 42 points, two games left. Charlton in 21st already on 50. Even winning both remaining fixtures, Leicester cannot reach safety. Matchday 44 delivered the mathematical confirmation of what the table had been pointing at all season: the 2015/16 Premier League champions will play second-tier football next year in League One.
The numbers tell the story in the coldest possible terms. Leicester have 42 points from 44 games. Their maximum achievable total is 48 points. Charlton, sitting 21st, are already on 50 and could only drop out of that figure by losing both of their remaining matches heavily while Leicester win both of theirs by substantial margins — at which point head-to-head and goal difference still go the wrong way. Relegation was arithmetically confirmed when Leicester drew 2-2 with Hull on Tuesday night.
The symmetry is painful. April 2016: Leicester are crowned Premier League champions, 5,000-to-1 outsiders who turned Riyad Mahrez, N’Golo Kanté, Jamie Vardy and a first-time winning manager into one of the most unlikely title stories in English football history. April 2026: Leicester finish a Championship season 23rd. Ten years, to the month. Sky Sports’ Leicester coverage has the fuller 2015/16 retrospective for anyone who wants to reach for the context.
I won’t pretend I’m not enjoying this one — every football fan has a Leicester fan in their life who made 2015/16 insufferable, and tonight the universe is levelling up. But even for the neutral it’s a remarkable case study in how quickly institutional momentum collapses when the money stops lining up with the football: two relegations in three seasons, FFP pressure, a managerial merry-go-round, and a squad that has been outscored by its own expected goals only in the wrong direction.
The 2-2 with Hull was, in fairness, not the performance of a beaten side. Leicester out-expected-goals Hull 3.18 to 1.38 and created enough chances to have put the game to bed before the hour. Luke Thomas’s 54th-minute goal gave them a 2-1 lead; Oliver McBurnie’s equaliser nine minutes later was entirely out of keeping with the balance of the match. But a point wasn’t going to be enough. Two wins on the remaining two matchdays, same story.
Leicester’s second relegation in three seasons carries significant financial consequences, further constrained by Premier League profit-and-sustainability rules. A squad overhaul is unavoidable, with key assets likely to be sold. Next season they will face League One opponents such as Stevenage, Barnsley, and Stockport County — clubs they have not met competitively in decades. No path back is guaranteed.
🐯 Hull Drop Out of the Playoffs — First Time Since February
Hull City exit the top six after 17 straight matchdays inside it. A 2-2 draw at Leicester — the week’s most over-examined match — left Hull level on 70 points with Wrexham but behind them on goal difference (+4 to +6). Coventry’s rampant 5-1 win over Portsmouth pushed the champions-elect to 89 points. With two matches remaining, Hull are on the outside of the playoff picture for the first time since 3rd February.
The stretch speaks to how remarkable Hull’s run had been. They were last outside the top six at Matchday 26 on 3 February — back when Leicester still had a safety gap to defend and the Championship’s spring run-in looked like it would settle a different way. From Matchday 27 onwards Hull were a top-six fixture: 3rd for a spell, 4th, 5th for a long stretch, 6th briefly. Seventeen consecutive matchdays inside the playoffs, roughly eleven calendar weeks, came to an end on Tuesday.
Their draw at the King Power was not the story on paper. Hull created enough at 2-1 up — Liam Millar’s 18th-minute opener, Luke Thomas capitalising on a Leicester spell of pressure — to have taken three points home. But Leicester’s underlying numbers (3.18 xG to Hull’s 1.38) reflect the reality: Hull spent large parts of the second half under pressure, and the 63rd-minute McBurnie equaliser was a fair enough reward for the hosts’ territorial dominance. Hull have now drawn three of their last five, and two of those draws have come from matches they were winning with under half an hour to play.
The Run-In: Hull Still Hold the Cards
Here’s the case for Hull, and it holds up to scrutiny. Both teams play two more matches. Hull’s remaining fixtures total 114 combined league points between the two opponents. Wrexham’s? 165 points.
- Hull MD 45 (away): Charlton — 21st, 50 points, already safe from relegation. Nothing to play for beyond pride.
- Hull MD 46 (home): Norwich — 9th, 64 points, mid-table. Too far off the playoffs to chase, too far above the drop to sweat.
- Wrexham MD 45 (away): Coventry — 1st, 89 points, champions-in-waiting. A team that has just put five past Portsmouth.
- Wrexham MD 46 (home): Middlesbrough — 5th, 76 points, still in a live fight for automatic promotion.
Wrexham’s run-in is, by any reasonable measure, significantly harder. Beating Coventry away would be a story of the season in its own right; beating Middlesbrough at home while Boro are still chasing automatic promotion will not be a routine afternoon. Hull face an already-safe Charlton and a Norwich side with nothing to play for. On fixture difficulty alone, Hull have a real chance of a run back into the top six; Wrexham need to find points in the two hardest matches they have left.
None of which makes Hull favourites — they are, remember, behind on goal difference, and “easier opponents” is a gradient, not a guarantee. But if you were a Hull supporter walking out of the King Power on Tuesday night, the realistic read is: we’re still in the driving seat on fixtures, even if the points column has slipped against us. Two wins almost certainly puts Hull back in the top six. Wrexham, by contrast, need to take points from Coventry and Middlesbrough just to keep pace.
All Championship MD 44 Results (Goals vs xG)
Championship - Matchday 44 Review
Season 2025-26 | Post-Match Analysis
Southampton
Bristol City
West Brom
Watford
Norwich
Derby
QPR
Swansea
Stoke City
Millwall
Oxford United
Wrexham
Coventry
Portsmouth
Leicester
Hull City
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Wednesday
Birmingham
Preston
Sheffield Utd
Blackburn
Charlton
IpswichGoals vs Expected Goals
🏆 Updated Championship Table
Championship Table
📝 Match-by-Match
Eleven matches beyond Leicester v Hull. A promotion-relevant win for Wrexham, a statement from Coventry, and a half-dozen scorelines that tighten the playoff race further.
Southampton 2-2 Bristol City
Ryan Manning’s own goal gave Bristol City a fifth-minute lead, but Manning atoned by setting up Cyle Larin for the equaliser. Sam Bell restored the visitors’ advantage before Ross Stewart’s 74th-minute strike ensured a 2-2 draw. Southampton remain fourth on 76 points, while Bristol City sit 12th with 59.
West Brom 3-0 Watford
Isaac Price opened the scoring, Daryl Dike doubled the lead before half-time, and Daniel Imray sealed a 3-0 win at The Hawthorns. An xG of 1.48-0.61 reflected West Brom’s dominance. The Baggies move to 18th on 52 points, while Watford drop to 15th on 57.
Norwich 2-1 Derby
Mohamed Touré put Norwich ahead after 33 minutes, but David Ozoh equalised for Derby. Liam Gibbs struck six minutes later to decide the game, earning Norwich a vital 2-1 win. Norwich climb to ninth on 64 points; Derby slip to eighth on 66.
QPR 1-2 Swansea
Ronald struck inside two minutes to give Swansea an early lead. Žan Vipotnik’s penalty doubled the advantage before Rhys Norrington-Davies pulled one back for QPR deep into stoppage time. A 2.61 xG reflected Swansea’s dominance. The Swans rise to 11th on 60 points; QPR stay 13th on 58.
Stoke 1-3 Millwall
Camiel Neghli and Femi Azeez put Millwall two up before Caleb Taylor’s own goal gifted Stoke a lifeline. Josh Coburn restored the visitors’ two-goal cushion, sealing a 3-1 win. Millwall solidify third on 79 points, while Stoke remain 17th on 55.
Oxford 0-1 Wrexham
Josh Windass’s first-half strike from Sam Smith’s assist proved decisive as Wrexham edged Oxford 1-0. An xG of 1.34-0.76 favoured the visitors. Wrexham hold sixth on 70 points, while Oxford languish in 22nd with 44, deep in relegation trouble.
Coventry 5-1 Portsmouth
Haji Wright opened the scoring, Ephron Mason-Clark netted twice, and a Regan Poole own goal powered Coventry to a 5-1 rout. Adrian Segecic scored a consolation for Portsmouth. Coventry extend their lead at the top to 89 points; Portsmouth stay 20th on 51.
Middlesbrough 1-0 Sheff Wed
Morgan Whittaker’s 11th-minute strike was enough to give Middlesbrough a 1-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday. An xG of 1.82-0.51 underlined Boro’s dominance. Middlesbrough stay fifth on 76 points, while Sheffield Wednesday remain rooted to the bottom on 15.
Birmingham 2-1 Preston
Jay Stansfield and Ibrahim Osman struck inside 16 minutes for Birmingham, but Andrew Hughes pulled one back for Preston. Despite a higher xG (2.25), Preston could not find an equaliser. Birmingham climb to 10th on 60 points; Preston drop to 16th on 57.
Sheff Utd 1-3 Blackburn
Yuki Ohashi scored twice and Ryoya Morishita once as Blackburn raced to a 3-0 half-time lead at Bramall Lane. Harrison Burrows netted a consolation for Sheffield United. Blackburn move to 19th on 52 points; Sheffield United stay 14th on 57.
Charlton 1-2 Ipswich
Greg Docherty gave Charlton a dream start after just one minute, but Darnell Furlong equalised before Jaden Philogene-Bidace’s penalty sealed a 2-1 win for Ipswich. With a game in hand, Ipswich remain second on 79 points, while Charlton slip to 21st on 50.
Six postponed League One fixtures finally played in the midweek, cutting across four different original matchdays (7, 36, 40, 41). None were promotion-defining; a couple were relegation-critical.
League One Catch-Up Results
| Original MD | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| MD 7 | Stevenage | 1–0 | Barnsley |
| MD 36 | Stockport County | 0–1 | Mansfield Town |
| MD 40 | Rotherham | 0–2 | Luton |
| MD 40 | Bradford | 1–1 | Plymouth |
| MD 40 | Doncaster | 0–2 | Lincoln |
| MD 41 | Cardiff | 1–0 | Port Vale |
Lincoln continued their march toward the League One title with a 2-0 win at Doncaster on April 21, Ben House scoring in the 43rd and 72nd minutes to take the Imps to 97 points, nine clear at the top. Cardiff maintained second place with a 1-0 home victory over Port Vale on April 22, Rubin Colwill netting in the 79th minute to lift the Bluebirds to 88 points. Luton kept their promotion push alive with a 2-0 triumph at Rotherham, Kasey Palmer bagging a brace in the 8th and 44th minutes, while the Millers remained second-from-bottom with 40 points and face a serious relegation threat. Mansfield earned a valuable 1-0 win at Stockport County, Tyler Roberts scoring the only goal in the 63rd minute to take the Stags to 58 points; the defeat left Stockport in fifth with 71 points, their top-six hopes suffering a setback. Bradford played out a 1-1 draw at home to Plymouth, Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu opening the scoring for the visitors in the 8th minute before Will Swan equalised for the Bantams in the 72nd. The result kept Bradford fourth with 73 points and Plymouth eighth with 67. Stevenage completed a 1-0 win over Barnsley in their rearranged matchday seven fixture, Daniel Kemp scoring the decisive goal in the 22nd minute at the Lamex Stadium. Stevenage moved level on 71 points with Stockport in sixth, while Barnsley remained 13th on 56 points.
🏆 Updated League One Table
League One
Updated: 25 Apr 2026, 2:48 PM
🔮 How Our Model Did This Week
Championship — Season Through Matchday 44
Correct Outcomes by Matchday (2025)
Bars show correct outcomes per matchday; blue line is the running season total. Outcome-only accuracy — home win, draw, or away win. Random baseline for a three-way outcome is 33%.
League One — 21–22 April Catch-Ups
3 / 6 correct (50%) across six fixtures spanning original matchdays 7, 36, 40 and 41 — not a single-matchday chart, as the catch-ups don’t map to one MD.
Season Record
Championship: 21/62 (34%)
League One: 28/64 (44%)
Five Things We Learned
The midweek delivered one of the season’s most consequential single gameweeks — Leicester’s mathematical relegation in the Championship, Hull’s playoff exit, and six postponed League One catch-ups that reshaped the promotion and relegation battles in the third tier. Before the final fortnight begins in earnest, here is what the data tells us about where the Championship and League One run-ins now sit.
- Leicester’s fall is complete, and the symmetry is the story. Ten years, title to League One. The arithmetic is routine; the institutional lesson isn’t.
- Hull’s playoff slip matters less than the fixture list suggests. Dropping to 7th hurts the points column but Hull’s run-in (Charlton away, Norwich home) is significantly softer than Wrexham’s (Coventry away, Middlesbrough home).
- Coventry are champions-elect in everything but confirmation. 89 points, +46 goal difference, and a 5-1 demolition of Portsmouth that suggests they’ve got the finishing gears for a top-flight return.
- Sheffield Wednesday’s season reads like an error log. 15 points from 44 games. The Middlesbrough defeat was their 31st loss. Relegation was confirmed weeks ago; the remaining fortnight is housekeeping.
- The League One catch-ups clarified the relegation picture more than the promotion race. Rotherham’s loss to Luton leaves them needing to win both remaining games and hope others slip, while Stockport’s home defeat to Mansfield edges them closer to the playoff bubble rather than elimination. The margin for error is shrinking rapidly for those outside the top six.
Looking Ahead: Matchday 45
👀 Championship Fixtures — Matchday 45
- Saturday 26 April, 12:30 BST — Charlton v Hull City (Hull’s run-in starts)
- Saturday 26 April, 15:00 BST — Coventry v Wrexham (Wrexham travel to the league leaders)
- Saturday 26 April, 15:00 BST — Middlesbrough v QPR (Boro still chasing automatic)
- Saturday 26 April, 17:30 BST — Ipswich v Southampton (both fighting for a top-four finish)
Two fixtures on Matchday 45 will shape the Championship playoff chase. Hull travel to Charlton needing a win against a side still fighting for survival, while Wrexham face a far sterner test at Coventry, the champions-elect. The BTP model continues to track the run-in probabilities, updating after every result. The final two rounds will separate the contenders from those who simply held on too long.
