📖 Full match narrative: Championship Gameweek 43: Coventry Promoted, Hull Drop Points as Second Place Race Intensifies
ML Predictions — Matchday 43
Gameweek scorecard: 6/12 correct (50.0%).
| Kickoff | Fixture | Score | H | D | A | Model Pick | Hit? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 17 Apr 19:00 | Blackburn vs Coventry | 1-1 | 28% | 25% | 47% | Away Win medium confidence |
✗ |
| Sat 18 Apr 11:30 | Portsmouth vs Leicester | 1-0 | 46% | 21% | 33% | Home Win medium confidence |
✓ |
| Sat 18 Apr 11:30 | Derby vs Oxford United | 1-0 | 50% | 23% | 27% | Home Win medium confidence |
✓ |
| Sat 18 Apr 11:30 | Millwall vs QPR | 2-0 | 56% | 15% | 28% | Home Win medium confidence |
✓ |
| Sat 18 Apr 14:00 | Hull City vs Birmingham | 1-1 | 47% | 20% | 33% | Home Win medium confidence |
✗ |
| Sat 18 Apr 14:00 | Preston vs West Brom | 0-2 | 34% | 24% | 42% | Away Win low confidence |
✓ |
| Sat 18 Apr 14:00 | Bristol City vs Norwich | 2-4 | 57% | 23% | 19% | Home Win medium confidence |
✗ |
| Sat 18 Apr 14:00 | Swansea vs Southampton | 1-2 | 35% | 20% | 44% | Away Win low confidence |
✓ |
| Sat 18 Apr 14:00 | Wrexham vs Stoke City | 2-0 | 42% | 19% | 39% | Home Win low confidence |
✓ |
| Sat 18 Apr 14:00 | Watford vs Sheffield Utd | 0-2 | 46% | 20% | 34% | Home Win medium confidence |
✗ |
| Sat 18 Apr 14:00 | Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton | 1-1 | 35% | 24% | 40% | Away Win low confidence |
✗ |
| Sun 19 Apr 11:00 | Ipswich vs Middlesbrough | 2-2 | 50% | 23% | 27% | Home Win medium confidence |
✗ |
🎯 Most confident hit: Millwall vs QPR — model said Home Win at 56% and it came in (2-0).
🙈 Confident and wrong: Bristol City vs Norwich — model said Home Win at 57%; actual was Away Win (2-4).
Record since our current Championship model went live
(2026-04-14):
6 correct from 13
(46.2% accuracy).
Seeds for ‘5 things we learned’ — edit as you see fit:
- Blackburn and Coventry’s 1-1 draw was a close match, with xG values of 1.04 for Blackburn and 1.49 for Coventry, indicating a balanced encounter.
- Millwall’s decisive victory over QPR by 2-0 showcased strong form, supported by their higher xG (1.08) compared to QPR’s meagre xG of 0.13.
- The model accurately predicted the home wins for Millwall and Portsmouth, with high confidence probabilities of 56.2% and 46.2%, respectively, reflecting strong predictive power in these fixtures.
- Watford’s loss to Sheffield United was a notable upset; despite an xG advantage (0.93 vs 0.75), the model incorrectly favoured Watford with a confidence of 45.8%.
- The cumulative results suggest continued form struggles for teams like Bristol City and Blackburn, while others like Wrexham and Preston showed promising signs that could impact the promotion race in the Championship.
