Matchday 13 opens on Friday night with Sheffield United against Wrexham and finishes on Saturday — one at 8pm on Friday, then three at 12.30pm and eight at 3pm on Saturday. The model calls the home side in eleven of the twelve, which is more than it has called in any round so far this season; the one exception is Birmingham at Lincoln, and it calls the draw nowhere, as in every round this season. Every club has now played twelve with nothing owed from an earlier round, so the table compares like with like for the second round in a row. Matchday 12 returned thirty-six goals in twelve.
Gameweek 13 – Stats & Historical Data
All Fixtures — Head to Head, Form & Historical Positions
Championship - Matchday 13 Preview
Season 2026-27 | Powered by 6 seasons of historical data
Sheffield Utd10th
Wrexham18thxGF: 7.6 | xGA: 6.0 (+1.6)
xGF: 6.2 | xGA: 5.1 (+1.0)
30 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Norwich15th
Watford21stxGF: 5.1 | xGA: 7.8 (-2.6)
xGF: 6.2 | xGA: 10.0 (-3.8)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Stoke City7th
Preston24thxGF: 5.0 | xGA: 7.7 (-2.7)
xGF: 4.0 | xGA: 9.7 (-5.7)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Lincoln16th
Birmingham6thxGF: 6.1 | xGA: 10.2 (-4.1)
xGF: 9.2 | xGA: 6.9 (+2.4)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Wolves3rd
Cardiff17thxGF: 8.7 | xGA: 4.7 (+4.0)
xGF: 9.2 | xGA: 8.6 (+0.6)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Southampton5th
QPR9thxGF: 8.5 | xGA: 5.6 (+3.0)
xGF: 8.1 | xGA: 5.4 (+2.7)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Burnley22nd
Portsmouth11thxGF: 8.2 | xGA: 6.9 (+1.3)
xGF: 5.4 | xGA: 6.0 (-0.6)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
West Ham8th
West Brom4thxGF: 8.7 | xGA: 6.4 (+2.3)
xGF: 10.0 | xGA: 6.8 (+3.3)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Millwall12th
Derby23rdxGF: 9.0 | xGA: 5.4 (+3.6)
xGF: 5.0 | xGA: 10.3 (-5.3)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Bolton19th
Bristol City14thxGF: 8.1 | xGA: 12.2 (-4.1)
xGF: 8.1 | xGA: 5.4 (+2.6)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Middlesbrough1st
Charlton20thxGF: 12.3 | xGA: 3.6 (+8.7)
xGF: 6.7 | xGA: 9.0 (-2.3)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Swansea2nd
Blackburn13thxGF: 7.8 | xGA: 6.7 (+1.2)
xGF: 4.8 | xGA: 10.9 (-6.0)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Matchday 13 - Historical Insights
Playoff Race: Teams in 6th place at matchday 13 have averaged 21 points historically.
Relegation Battle: Teams in 22nd at matchday 13 have averaged 11 points historically.
Current Championship Table
Championship Table
Key Storylines This Week
What to Watch For
- Eleven home calls, more than any round so far: The model makes the home side favourite in eleven of the twelve fixtures on this card. That is the most it has done in a single round this season — the previous high was ten, back at Matchday 2 — and it leaves Birmingham at Lincoln as the only away call of the weekend. The draw is called nowhere, which is now true of every round the model has covered: across 144 fixtures spanning twelve rounds it has not once made the draw its most likely outcome, and the highest draw probability it has produced is 28.2%. That is a property of how the pick is read — the most likely of three — rather than a claim that draws are rare.
- 71.1% is the firmest call of the round, and the second firmest so far: Middlesbrough at home to Charlton is the model’s strongest opinion on the card at 71.1%. It is not its strongest of the season: Matchday 3 produced 72.9%, and that remains the high watermark of the twelve rounds so far. Middlesbrough have twenty-five points from twelve matches, more than anyone in the division, and have lost one of them; Charlton have fourteen from the same twelve, have scored eleven goals all season and have drawn five of the twelve. After twelve rounds the goal rates the model works from all sit between 0.88 and 1.87 a side, and rates in that range keep winning margins tight.
- Two models, and where they part company: The probability bars are goals_logreg_v1_cal, the 1X2 model. The likeliest scorelines beneath them come from goals_poisson_v1, a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction, and they are its outright three likeliest scores listed as they stand rather than filtered to agree with the bars. On one of the twelve the two reach different conclusions about the result outright, and that is reported rather than resolved.
Championship Top Scorers
Top Scorers Heading into Gameweek 13
Top Assists — 2026/27 season
Top Assist Providers
Championship Top Assists
Head to Head
Southampton vs QPR
Last 4 league meetings
| Date | Home | Score | Away | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 2026-27 | Southampton | 4 - 1 | QPR | 1.3 - 0.8 |
| 24 Feb 2026 2025-26 | Southampton | 5 - 0 | QPR | 1.6 - 0.3 |
| 05 Nov 2025 2025-26 | QPR | 1 - 2 | Southampton | 1.7 - 0.7 |
| 23 Dec 2023 2023-24 | QPR | 0 - 1 | Southampton | 0.4 - 1.6 |
Recent Form Comparison — this season
Form Comparison - Last 6 Games
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southampton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 13 | LWWDWW |
| 2 | QPR | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 8 | DDWLWL |
Southampton - Recent Results
QPR - Recent Results
xG Trends — 2026/27 season
Southampton - 10-Match Rolling xG 2026/2027
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
QPR - 10-Match Rolling xG 2026/2027
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Goals by Period — 2026/27 season
Southampton - Goals by Time Period 2026/2027
QPR - Goals by Time Period 2026/2027
Historical Position at Matchday 13
Historical Position Comparison
Southampton - Saturday 31st October 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 (now) | 5th | 23 | +15 | - |
| 2025-26 | 21st | 12 | -6 | 5th |
| 2023-24 | 5th | 21 | -3 | 4th |
Historical Position Comparison
QPR - Saturday 31st October 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 (now) | 9th | 20 | +5 | - |
| 2025-26 | 12th | 18 | -5 | 14th |
| 2024-25 | 23rd | 10 | -8 | 15th |
| 2023-24 | 23rd | 8 | -15 | 18th |
| 2022-23 | 5th | 21 | +4 | 21st |
| 2021-22 | 5th | 21 | +4 | 11th |
| 2020-21 | 13th | 17 | -3 | 9th |
| 2019-20 | 5th | 23 | +0 | 14th |
Player to Watch
Cyle Larin — Southampton
Cyle Larin has seven goals this season for Southampton, seven of the twenty-four they have scored. QPR have conceded twelve in twelve, as few as any club in the division.
Radar: 2026/27 season data, 12 rounds in.
Cyle Larin
Southampton • F • 2026-2027 Season
BTP Verdict
The number worth reading here is the margin rather than the score: the model puts 67% on this finishing within a goal, and the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12.3%, 1-0 10.7%, 0-1 9.1%. Two clubs on the same points with the same goals conceded, separated by 26.6 percentage points — which is a reminder that the model reads more than the league table.
Twenty points each, twelve conceded each, and 26.6 percentage points between them
Southampton and QPR arrive on the same number of points, twenty, having conceded the same number of goals, twelve — the fewest in the division, a figure they share with Birmingham. Southampton have scored twenty-four to QPR’s twenty, and QPR have drawn five of their twelve. The model does not treat them as equals: it makes the hosts 53.6% against QPR’s 27.0% — the model reads more than points and goals conceded.
Matchday 12 produced thirty-six goals and left every club on twelve played
Twelve matches, thirty-six goals, six home wins, three draws and three away wins. Middlesbrough won 5-1 at Bolton, QPR beat Swansea 5-0, Lincoln beat Burnley 4-1 and Southampton won 3-2 at West Ham. This round the model makes eleven home calls out of twelve, reading a five-match in-division rate for each side rather than one round.
The only away call on the card is at Lincoln
Birmingham at Lincoln is the single fixture this weekend the model does not call for the home side: 49.0% to 32.5%. Lincoln have fifteen points from twelve and have conceded twenty, and they beat Burnley 4-1 in the last round. Birmingham have twenty points and have conceded twelve, as few as anyone in the division. The model weighs the defences rather than the last result alone.
Norwich are the only club in the division yet to draw
Norwich have four wins and eight defeats from twelve matches and not one draw, the only such record in the division; every other club has at least two. They host Watford, who have scored ten goals all season. Elsewhere the one adjustment still standing between the table and a straight reading of it is Southampton’s: their twenty is after the four-point deduction applied from Matchday 1, so their record is worth twenty-four. Preston have five points from twelve and a goal difference of minus fifteen, the lowest in the division on both counts, and they travel to Stoke.
Player Watchlist
Three players to keep an eye on this weekend.
- Will Lankshear (Middlesbrough) — Eleven goals from Middlesbrough’s twelve matches, eleven of the twenty-seven they have scored.
- Andri Guðjohnsen (Blackburn) — Eight goals from Blackburn’s twelve matches, eight of the nineteen they have scored.
- Cyle Larin (Southampton) — Seven goals from Southampton’s twelve matches, seven of the twenty-four they have scored.
BTP Predictions — Gameweek 13
Final Thoughts
A Friday opener at Sheffield United, a full Saturday, and the card on which the model has leaned home more often than in any round this season: eleven home calls, one away call and no draw anywhere. Its firmest opinion is 71.1% on Middlesbrough — the firmest of this round, though Matchday 3 went higher at 72.9% — and its closest is 8.1 percentage points at Burnley. Read the margins rather than the scorelines.
Sheffield United vs Wrexham
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Sheffield United, at 48.3% / 18.6% / 33.1% home, draw and away. It puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12.2%, 1-0 11.4%, 2-1 9.0%, none of them close to certain.
Lincoln vs Birmingham
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Birmingham, at 32.5% / 18.5% / 49.0% home, draw and away. It puts 65% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 11.8%, 0-1 10.7%, 1-2 9.3%, none of them close to certain.
Norwich vs Watford
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Norwich, at 58.1% / 21.5% / 20.4% home, draw and away. It puts 66% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-0 12.2%, 1-1 11.9%, 2-1 9.4%, none of them close to certain.
Stoke City vs Preston
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Stoke City, at 60.4% / 21.1% / 18.5% home, draw and away. It puts 62% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-0 12.9%, 1-1 11.1%, 2-0 11.0%, none of them close to certain.
Bolton vs Bristol City
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Bolton, at 45.1% / 22.2% / 32.7% home, draw and away. It puts 68% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12.6%, 1-0 11.3%, 0-1 9.7%, none of them close to certain.
Burnley vs Portsmouth
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Burnley, at 42.3% / 23.5% / 34.2% home, draw and away. It puts 68% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12.5%, 1-0 11.2%, 0-1 9.8%, none of them close to certain.
Middlesbrough vs Charlton
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Middlesbrough, at 71.1% / 19.6% / 9.3% home, draw and away. It puts 59% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-0 11.8%, 2-0 10.9%, 1-1 10.4%, none of them close to certain.
Millwall vs Derby
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Millwall, at 55.4% / 20.4% / 24.2% home, draw and away. It puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12.3%, 1-0 11.8%, 2-1 9.0%, none of them close to certain.
Southampton vs QPR
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Southampton, at 53.6% / 19.4% / 27.0% home, draw and away. It puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12.3%, 1-0 10.7%, 0-1 9.1%, none of them close to certain.
Swansea vs Blackburn
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Swansea, at 49.9% / 17.5% / 32.6% home, draw and away. It puts 68% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12.7%, 1-0 11.1%, 0-1 10.2%, none of them close to certain.
West Ham vs West Brom
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is West Ham, at 64.5% / 19.7% / 15.8% home, draw and away. It puts 65% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-0 12.0%, 1-1 11.8%, 2-1 9.4%, none of them close to certain.
Wolves vs Cardiff
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Wolves, at 46.3% / 16.0% / 37.7% home, draw and away. It puts 68% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12.4%, 0-1 10.1%, 1-0 10.0%, none of them close to certain. The two models part company here: the bars come from the 1X2 model, while the goal rates behind those scorelines read it 36.7% / 26.2% / 37.2% home, draw and away, level. We publish both rather than pick between them — a fixture the two disagree about is one neither is confident in.
🤖 Model Notes — GW13
Two models run on every fixture. The probability bars are goals_logreg_v1_cal, the 1X2 model; the scorelines come from goals_poisson_v1, a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction. The three beside each fixture are the grid’s outright three likeliest, unfiltered — which is why a fixture’s top entry can be a draw while the bars favour a home or away win. The single score quoted for the match of the week is a different number: the likeliest cell consistent with the 1X2 call. On one of the twelve fixtures this round the two disagree about the winner outright, and that is reported rather than resolved. Both are re-run every morning, so a figure here can differ from one printed later in the week.
Model: logistic regression with player-quality features, calibrated so its percentages match observed frequencies (goals_logreg_v1_cal), trained on 3,266 Championship matches (2019/20–2024/25). Log loss 1.064 vs baseline 1.073. Full methodology here.
Check back after the weekend for our full Gameweek 13 Championship review with match reports and updated standings!
