Five rearranged fixtures, and a division still catching up

League One plays five rearranged fixtures on Tuesday 27 October 2026, 7.45pm — two from Matchday 8, three from Matchday 9. A rearranged fixture keeps its original matchday number, so these are still filed under Matchday 8 and Matchday 9 even though the division has moved past both. The model calls the home side in all five.

This does not clear the backlog. League One is owed eighteen fixtures from earlier rounds in all; five are played on Tuesday, which leaves thirteen still outstanding — one from Matchday 3, six from Matchday 8, six from Matchday 9. Clubs are described below by their points and records, because they have played different numbers of matches and a table read straight down does not compare like with like.

Leicester v Wigan

Leicester have fifteen points from eleven matches and Wigan seven from eleven. Leicester have won four, drawn three and lost four, scoring seventeen and conceding seventeen; Wigan have won two, drawn one and lost eight, scoring eight and conceding seventeen. The 1X2 model leans Leicester: 54.8% Leicester, 24.2% the draw, 21.0% Wigan. The goals model puts 64% on the match finishing within a goal, and its two likeliest scorelines are level at 11.7% — 1-0 and 1-1 — which is as close to no opinion about a scoreline as the grid gets. We hold no previous meeting between these two, so there is no head-to-head record to read.

Milton Keynes Dons v Bromley

Milton Keynes Dons have twelve points from eleven matches and Bromley nine from eleven. Milton Keynes Dons have won two, drawn six and lost three, scoring twelve and conceding eighteen; Bromley have won two, drawn three and lost six, scoring ten and conceding twenty-six. The 1X2 model leans Milton Keynes Dons: 49.9% Milton Keynes Dons, 24.6% the draw, 25.5% Bromley. The goals model puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal, and its likeliest scoreline consistent with that call is 1-0 at 10.9%. We hold four previous meetings between these two, all of them in League Two, the most recent in 2025/26.

Luton v Doncaster

Luton have seventeen points from eleven matches and Doncaster twelve from eleven. Luton have won five, drawn two and lost four, scoring twenty-one and conceding nineteen; Doncaster have won three, drawn three and lost five, scoring twelve and conceding thirteen. The 1X2 model leans Luton: 47.0% Luton, 27.2% the draw, 25.8% Doncaster. The goals model puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal, and its likeliest scoreline consistent with that call is 1-0 at 11.5%. We hold two previous meetings between these two, both of them in League One, the most recent in 2025/26.

Oxford United v Stockport County

Oxford United have nineteen points from ten matches and Stockport County twenty-three from twelve. The two have not played the same number of matches, which is what a rearranged fixture does to a table. Oxford United have won five, drawn four and lost one, scoring eighteen and conceding ten; Stockport County have won seven, drawn two and lost three, scoring twenty-four and conceding twelve. The 1X2 model leans Oxford United: 37.8% Oxford United, 26.9% the draw, 35.3% Stockport County. The goals model puts 69% on the match finishing within a goal, and its likeliest scoreline consistent with that call is 1-0 at 10.8%. We hold no previous meeting between these two, so there is no head-to-head record to read.

Sheffield Wednesday v Cambridge United

Sheffield Wednesday have eighteen points from eleven matches and Cambridge United twenty from twelve. Sheffield Wednesday have won five, drawn three and lost three, scoring twenty and conceding twelve; Cambridge United have won five, drawn five and lost two, scoring twenty and conceding seventeen. The 1X2 model leans Sheffield Wednesday: 50.0% Sheffield Wednesday, 24.2% the draw, 25.8% Cambridge United. The goals model puts 66% on the match finishing within a goal, and its likeliest scoreline consistent with that call is 1-0 at 10.6%. We hold four previous meetings between these two, all of them in League One, the most recent in 2022/23.

What the models say

The probability bars come from leagueone_lr_v3_cal, the 1X2 model. The scorelines come from leagueone_poisson_v1, a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Those are two different models and they are not asked to agree. The score quoted against each fixture above is the likeliest cell consistent with the 1X2 call, which is not the same thing as the grid’s outright likeliest: on four of the five the grid’s single most likely scoreline is 1-1, and on the other, Leicester v Wigan, 1-0 and 1-1 are level — even though the 1X2 model leans to the home side in all five. Both figures are real, and the difference is reported rather than tidied away. Both are re-run every morning, so a figure here can differ from one printed later in the week.

The table before kick-off

Oxford United have played ten, fewer than anyone else in the division. With thirteen fixtures still owed after Tuesday night, the points column and the played column have to be read together for a while yet.