BTP Player Verdict · April 2026
McBurnie: Is It Just In Your Head?
Hull fans think he’s a great player. With four games left and 14 goals to his name, the data has something to say about that.
14
Goals
7
Assists
21
G+A
60%
Shot Accuracy
Ask a Hull City fan whether Oli McBurnie has been good this season and you’ll get a resounding yes. But football crowds are not always reliable narrators — especially when a player has a big personality, works hard, and scores the occasional memorable goal. Is the fandom justified, or is it emotion dressing up a moderate season?
The numbers are more interesting than the debate suggests.
The Raw Numbers
With four gameweeks remaining, McBurnie stands at 14 goals and 7 assists from 34 appearances — 28 of them starts. That is 21 goal contributions in a Championship season. In context, only Jan Vipotnik of Swansea (23) sits above him for total G+A among Championship attackers this campaign. Haji Wright at Coventry has 17.
McBurnie has not been the highest-profile signing in the division, nor the most talked-about. But by combined contribution, he is one of the two most productive attacking players in the second tier.
Championship Top Scorers
Championship Top Assists
Efficiency — What the Shots Data Reveals
Here is where it gets interesting. McBurnie has taken 50 shots this season, with 30 on target — a 60% accuracy rate. Among the top five Championship scorers, that is the best figure. Vipotnik converts 53.2% of his shots on target. Wright 48.6%. Kieffer Moore 47.5%.
He is not a volume shooter. He picks his moments. When he shoots, he means it.
Oliver McBurnie
Hull City • F • 2025-2026 Season
The Home/Away Divide
There is a split worth acknowledging. At the MKM Stadium, McBurnie has scored 9 goals and laid on 5 assists in 16 home appearances. Away from home, those numbers drop to 5 goals and 2 assists from 17 trips.
That home/away gap — particularly in assists — hints at something. He feeds off the crowd, or he feeds off the space Hull create at home. Either way, it is a nuance. Not a verdict, but a variable.
The Season Arc — A Story in Monthly Chunks
Understanding McBurnie’s season requires looking at when he scored, not just how many. His September was extraordinary: 5 goals from 4 appearances at an average rating of 7.65. That kind of form puts him alongside anyone in the division at that point in the year.
March was his lean month — goalless in five games. But he did not go missing entirely: one assist and an average rating of 6.56 suggests a player who was working but not finishing. The important thing? He scored at Sheffield United in GW42 when it actually mattered — a goal away from home against a side fighting for promotion. That is a striker who turns up in big moments.
Oliver McBurnie - Form Chart
Average Rating: 6.91
This Is Not His First Championship Rodeo
McBurnie’s numbers at Sheffield United in 2022/23 tell a similar story: 13 goals and 2 assists in 38 Championship appearances. He was doing this before Hull, in a different shirt, under different management. It is not a fluke. It is not a system product.
The assists tally is notably different: 7 this season versus 2 at Sheffield United. Whether that reflects Hull’s style, his own evolution as a player, or a midfield that is delivering better ball into his feet is a useful question. The result is a more complete attacker — one who drops, links, and combines, not just finishes.
Recent Form
Oliver McBurnie - Recent Form
Hull City
| Date | Opponent | Result | Goals | Assists | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 May 2026 | Middlesbrough (H) | W 1-0 | 1 | 0 | 7.7 |
| 11 May 2026 | Millwall (A) | W 2-0 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 |
| 08 May 2026 | Millwall (H) | D 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 |
| 02 May 2026 | Norwich (H) | W 2-1 | 2 | 0 | 9.0 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Charlton (A) | L 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 |
| 21 Apr 2026 | Leicester (A) | D 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 18 Apr 2026 | Birmingham (H) | D 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 |
| 11 Apr 2026 | Sheffield Utd (A) | L 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 06 Apr 2026 | Coventry (H) | D 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 |
| 03 Apr 2026 | Oxford United (A) | D 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 |
Four Games to Go — What Can He Add?
Hull City have Birmingham (H), Leicester (A), Charlton (A) and one further game to play. That is a mix of a beatable home fixture, two away days — one against a title-chasing side at the top of the division.
With 14 goals already, a case can be made that McBurnie ends the season above 15 — which would represent an excellent Championship campaign by any measure. Against Birmingham at home, he has the ideal scenario. Away at Leicester is harder, but his away record (5 goals this season) shows he can deliver on the road.
The Model’s View — Hull City vs Birmingham (GW43)
Match Prediction
The Verdict
BTP Verdict
No — it is not just in their heads. Hull fans are right about Oli McBurnie.
21 goal contributions in a Championship season puts him among the very best attackers in the division. His shot accuracy (60%) is the highest in the top five scorers. His assists total (7) for a centre-forward is outstanding. There is a real home/away divide and March was poor — but those are nuances in an otherwise excellent campaign. The numbers back the belief.
The question is not whether McBurnie has been good. He has. The more interesting question is whether Hull have built enough around him — and that is an article for another day.
All stats from BTP Football Data plugin · Championship 2025/26 · Data through GW42 (11 April 2026) · EV content is for educational analysis only and does not constitute betting advice.
