Northampton 2–0 Colchester

🏟️ Sixfields Stadium

Northampton’s early opener from Matty Warhurst and Sam Hoskins’ finish five minutes after the restart settled a game their own expected goals (xG) of 0.75 hardly dominated. Colchester posted 1.04 xG, more than the hosts managed, so the two-goal margin flattered Northampton, but the visitors are now nine league games without a win and the pressure is becoming a results problem rather than a performance one. Chris Hogg’s Northampton have won two of their last three and look capable of grinding out low-event wins.

⚽ Goals: Matty Warhurst (9′), Sam Hoskins (50′)

Key Moment: Warhurst’s early goal forced Colchester to chase, but Hoskins’ strike five minutes into the second half removed any realistic route back.

What It Means: Northampton move to 13 points with a second win in three, while Colchester’s winless run stretches to nine and leaves them with little margin for error.

Bristol Rovers 0–0 Swindon Town

🏟️ Memorial Stadium

A goalless draw at the Memorial Stadium did little for either side’s momentum, though it stopped Bristol Rovers’ four-match losing sequence. The hosts generated 2.02 xG to Swindon’s 1.83, a sign that both had the chances to win. Swindon remain unbeaten in three but have now drawn twice in that sequence; Bristol Rovers leave with their first point in five and a clean sheet they badly needed.

⚽ Goals: No scorers recorded

Key Moment: A goalless draw in which both sides out-created the scoreline — 2.02 xG to Bristol Rovers, 1.83 to Swindon.

What It Means: Bristol Rovers halt their slide and move to 16 points; Swindon edge to 16 as well and extend their unbeaten run to three.

Cheltenham 1–0 Newport County

🏟️ Whaddon Road

Charlie McCann’s fifth-minute goal proved enough at Whaddon Road, ending Newport County’s seven-game unbeaten run in League Two. The xG split was 1.38 apiece, so Cheltenham did not out-create their visitors, but they made the early pressure count and defended the box with enough order to see the match out. Newport drop to three without a win and will rue a slow start; Cheltenham are now two straight wins and look much closer to the team that started the season strongly.

⚽ Goals: Charlie McCann (5′)

Key Moment: McCann’s early goal settled Cheltenham, and Newport did not find an equaliser.

What It Means: Cheltenham move to 21 points with back-to-back wins, while Newport stay on 15 and are now winless in three.

Exeter City 2–1 Fleetwood Town

🏟️ St James Park

Charlie Cummins put Exeter City ahead just before the hour. Ronan Coughlan equalised three minutes later for Fleetwood, but Luca Woodhouse’s 64th-minute strike restored the lead and gave Exeter back-to-back wins. Exeter’s xG of 1.26 was only marginally better than Fleetwood’s 0.90, so the scoreline was tight and the timing of Woodhouse’s goal the decisive factor. Fleetwood slide to two straight defeats.

⚽ Goals: Charlie Cummins (58′), Ronan Coughlan (61′), Luca Woodhouse (64′)

Key Moment: Woodhouse’s rapid response to Fleetwood’s equaliser swung the game back Exeter’s way before the visitors could build momentum.

What It Means: Exeter climb to 19 points with a fifth win, while Fleetwood stay on 14 and suffer a second straight loss.

Rochdale 0–5 Accrington Stanley

🏟️ Spotland Stadium

Accrington Stanley turned a modest xG of 1.89 into a five-goal away win at Spotland, while Rochdale could produce only 0.39 xG. Josh Woods opened the scoring early, Charlie Warren made it two before the break, and Tyler Walton added two of his own either side of half-time. Alex Henderson completed the rout. The result extends Accrington’s unbeaten run to seven, a sequence featuring three wins and four draws, and leaves Rochdale winless in four with questions about their defensive organisation.

⚽ Goals: Josh Woods (14′), Charlie Warren (38′), Tyler Walton (45+1′), Tyler Walton (51′), Alex Henderson (66′)

Key Moment: Walton’s goal in first-half stoppage time made it 3-0 at the break and left Rochdale needing a second-half response that never arrived.

What It Means: Accrington move to 18 points and seven unbeaten; Rochdale remain on 15 and have now gone four league games without a win.

Crawley Town 1–1 Tranmere

🏟️ Broadfield Stadium

Crawley Town took a 52nd-minute lead and looked capable of giving interim manager Kevin Blackwell a winning start, but Will Vaulks equalised for Tranmere eight minutes later. Tranmere’s 1.27 xG to Crawley’s 1.02 reflected a fairly even game, and the draw leaves Crawley without a win in nine. For Blackwell the point is a small foundation after his first match in charge; for Tranmere it keeps them unbeaten in two and rarely outclassed, but also with too many draws to climb.

⚽ Goals: Dylan Morgan (52′), Will Vaulks (60′)

Key Moment: Vaulks’ equaliser denied Crawley the full reward for their lead and kept the points shared.

What It Means: Crawley move to six points and winless in nine; Tranmere move to 16 and remain difficult to beat but short of wins.

York 2–0 Port Vale

🏟️ LNER Community Stadium

York City made their pressure count in the second half with Zac Johnson and Alex Hunt scoring within seven minutes of each other. Port Vale never found a way back, finishing with 0.71 xG to the hosts’ 1.21. The win ends a run of three straight draws for York and keeps their points total moving upward, while Port Vale have now lost two of their last five and managed just six league goals all season. York’s home form is becoming a reliable source of points.

⚽ Goals: Zac Johnson (54′), Alex Hunt (61′)

Key Moment: Johnson’s opener broke Port Vale’s resistance and Hunt’s quick second made the afternoon comfortable for York.

What It Means: York rise to 20 points with a fifth win, while Port Vale remain on 12 after a first defeat in four.

Gillingham 1–4 Grimsby

🏟️ Priestfield Stadium

Grimsby produced the more coherent away performance, reflected in a 2.94 xG tally, and left Priestfield with a deserved 4-1 win. Harvey Rodgers gave them an early lead, Ronan Hale levelled for Gillingham, but Iwan Morgan’s penalty, Géza Dávid Turi’s finish and Sonny Finch’s 70th-minute goal made the game safe. Gillingham’s 0.57 xG told the story of a side unable to create, and David Artell’s team deserved the points that end their difficult recent run.

⚽ Goals: Harvey Rodgers (7′), Ronan Hale (37′), Iwan Morgan (54′ pen), Géza Dávid Turi (63′), Sonny Finch (70′)

Key Moment: Morgan’s penalty restored Grimsby’s lead and marked the point at which Gillingham’s challenge evaporated.

What It Means: Grimsby climb to 17 points and end a five-game winless run with conviction; Gillingham remain on 17 and are now winless in three.

Barnet 1–1 Oldham

🏟️ The Hive Stadium

Barnet’s Kabongo Tshimanga struck in the 20th minute, but a 1.44 xG return from the hosts never made the game comfortable. Oldham finished with 2.51 xG, hit the equaliser in stoppage time through Mike Fondop-Talom, and might reflect that they created enough to win. The draw leaves Barnet winless in two after their home defeat by Swindon and offers Oldham a point their late pressure deserved.

⚽ Goals: Kabongo Tshimanga (20′), Mike Fondop-Talom (90+4′)

Key Moment: Fondop-Talom’s 94th-minute equaliser punished Barnet for failing to put the game away and rescued a point for Oldham.

What It Means: Barnet move to 22 points but are winless in two; Oldham move to 12 and show they can compete with the division’s stronger sides.

Chesterfield 5–1 Crewe

🏟️ SMH Group Stadium

Crewe came to the SMH Group Stadium as one of the division’s harder teams to beat, but left on the wrong end of a 5-1 scoreline that was only partially supported by the underlying data. Chesterfield’s xG of 1.87 produced five goals, with Josh Koroma, Tom Naylor, Fraser Bryden and Liam Mandeville all scoring alongside a Joshua Stephenson own goal. Charlie McNeill’s second-half consolation was all Crewe could muster from 0.49 xG. The result is Chesterfield’s second straight match unbeaten and Crewe’s second successive defeat.

⚽ Goals: Josh Koroma (3′), Tom Naylor (6′), Fraser Bryden (19′), Joshua Stephenson (35′ og), Liam Mandeville (45+1′), Charlie McNeill (57′)

Key Moment: Bryden’s strike, Chesterfield’s third inside 19 minutes, ended the contest early and exposed Crewe’s defensive disarray.

What It Means: Chesterfield climb to 19 points and underline their attacking threat; Crewe remain on 21 but have now lost two in a row.

Walsall 2–4 Salford City

🏟️ Bescot Stadium

Salford City made it seven straight league wins with a 4-2 victory at the Bescot that was more eventful than their xG of 2.37 suggested. Macaulay Langstaff and Jorge Grant had the visitors two up, but Walsall answered through Aaron Pressley and Lewis Simper to level at 2-2. Kallum Cesay restored Salford’s lead a minute later, and Adebola Oluwo made the points safe late on. Walsall’s 1.79 xG showed they contributed, but Cesay’s goal a minute after the equaliser kept Salford’s run going.

⚽ Goals: Macaulay Langstaff (45′), Jorge Grant (54′), Aaron Pressley (58′), Lewis Simper (66′), Kallum Cesay (67′), Adebola Oluwo (82′)

Key Moment: Cesay’s strike moments after Walsall’s equaliser halted the hosts’ momentum and set Salford back on course for a seventh straight win.

What It Means: Salford reach 28 points with a seventh consecutive league win; Walsall stay on 19 and suffer their first league defeat of the season.

⭐ Match of the Round: Rotherham 3–3 Shrewsbury

🏟️ Aesseal New York Stadium

Rotherham and Shrewsbury shared six goals at the Aesseal New York Stadium in a match that showed why Rotherham cannot yet relax. Paul Mullin scored twice in three minutes to put Rotherham 2-0 up early, but Josh Davison pulled one back on 24 minutes. The visitors grew into the game and their 2.24 xG was the better total; Josh Ruffels levelled just before the hour and William Boyle put Shrewsbury 3-2 ahead midway through the second half. Tom Bradshaw’s 76th-minute equaliser rescued Rotherham a point, but the hosts’ 1.48 xG told of a side riding individual moments rather than control. The draw extends Rotherham’s winless run to six.

⚽ Goals: Paul Mullin (15′), Paul Mullin (18′), Josh Davison (24′), Josh Ruffels (59′), William Boyle (67′), Tom Bradshaw (76′)

Key Moment: Shrewsbury’s third goal gave them a lead for the first time and exposed Rotherham’s fragility; the hosts needed Tom Bradshaw’s late equaliser to avoid another damaging home defeat.

What It Means: Rotherham move to 12 points and winless in six, while Shrewsbury extend their unbeaten run to three and now have 18 points.

⭐ Player of the Week: Tyler Walton (Accrington Stanley)

Tyler Walton’s two goals at Spotland turned Accrington’s win from comfortable to emphatic. He scored in first-half stoppage time and again six minutes after the restart, part of a performance in which Accrington converted 1.89 xG into five goals while keeping Rochdale to 0.39 xG.

🎯 Decisive Goal of the Week

Kallum Cesay (Salford City) vs Walsall — Salford had just been pegged back to 2-2 at the Bescot when Cesay struck in the 67th minute, restoring the lead a minute after Lewis Simper’s equaliser and putting Salford back on course for a seventh straight win.

💪 Performance of the Week

Accrington Stanley‘s 5-0 against Rochdale — Accrington produced the weekend’s most emphatic away performance, turning 1.89 xG into five goals at Spotland and allowing Rochdale only 0.39 xG. Tyler Walton scored twice, with Josh Woods, Charlie Warren and Alex Henderson also on target.

In the Spotlight

Alex Bruce (Rotherham) — Rotherham’s 3-3 draw with Shrewsbury extended their winless run to six, and the pattern of the match — 2-0 up after 18 minutes, then 3-2 down — was the fifth time this season Rotherham have led and failed to win. Twelve points from thirteen matches, two wins, and a trip to Swindon next.

⚽ League Two Top Scorers

👀 Key Fixtures Next Week

• Newport County vs Chesterfield (Fri 30 Oct 19:45)
• Port Vale vs Rochdale (Sat 31 Oct 12:30)
• Grimsby vs York (Sat 31 Oct 12:30)
• Oldham vs Crawley Town (Sat 31 Oct 15:00)
• Tranmere vs Cheltenham (Sat 31 Oct 15:00)
• Shrewsbury vs Gillingham (Sat 31 Oct 15:00)
• Salford City vs Exeter City (Sat 31 Oct 15:00)
• Swindon Town vs Rotherham (Sat 31 Oct 15:00)

🎯 Projected Final Points

Rows are ordered by projected total, not by current position, because the clubs have played different numbers of matches. ML xPts = sum of expected points from remaining fixtures per the BTP model (3·P(win) + 1·P(draw)). Projected total indicative only.

🎯 Projected Final Points

Rows are ordered by projected total, not by current position, because the clubs have played different numbers of matches. ML xPts = sum of expected points from remaining fixtures per the BTP model (3·P(win) + 1·P(draw)). Projected total indicative only.

🔮 Predictions Review

Correct Results: 4/12

Model Record: 40/91 (44.0%) this season (since 2026-09-07)

Best Call: The model nailed Exeter City’s home win over Fleetwood Town at 49.4% confidence, its strongest successful call of the round.

Worst Call: Its most confident miss was Barnet at home to Oldham, backed at 49.1% and drawn 1-1 to Mike Fondop-Talom’s stoppage-time equaliser. The heaviest reverse for any of its picks was Rochdale, backed at 39.1% and beaten 5-0 by Accrington Stanley.

The model’s usual home lean hurt it in a gameweek where Salford City, Grimsby and Accrington all won on the road.

📚 Five Things We Learned

1. Salford City’s 4-2 win at Walsall made it seven straight league wins, from 2.37 xG.
2. Accrington Stanley’s 5-0 win at Rochdale was a lesson in conversion: 1.89 xG produced five goals, and Tyler Walton’s two settled the contest before the hour.
3. Rotherham led 2-0 in 18 minutes against Shrewsbury, allowed 2.24 xG and trailed 3-2 before salvaging a point.
4. Chesterfield’s 5-1 victory over Crewe was more clinical than dominant on xG, but it left a previously resilient Crewe side with two straight defeats and a five-goal concession.
5. Grimsby’s 4-1 win at Gillingham was underpinned by a 2.94 xG away performance and ended a five-game winless run.