Matchday 14 opens on Friday night and finishes on Saturday afternoon — one at 7.45pm on Friday, then two at 12.30pm and nine at 3pm on Saturday. The model gives the home side the edge in all twelve fixtures and calls neither a draw nor an away win anywhere — the second full card we have published that it has read that way, after Matchday 9; it also read Matchday 5 that way, before this division’s previews began. Salford City, seven straight wins and the only club past twenty-five points, host Exeter City and the meanest defence in the division. Matchday 13 produced forty goals and four draws, and clubs arrive on between eleven and thirteen matches played.
Gameweek 14 – Stats & Historical Data
All Fixtures — Head to Head, Form & Historical Positions
League Two - Matchday 14 Preview
Season 2026-27 | Powered by 6 seasons of historical data
Newport County14th
Chesterfield10thxGF: 7.2 | xGA: 6.1 (+1.2)
xGF: 7.3 | xGA: 5.1 (+2.2)
30 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Port Vale18th
Rochdale19thxGF: 9.0 | xGA: 4.6 (+4.4)
xGF: 4.7 | xGA: 11.0 (-6.3)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Grimsby6th
York7thxGF: 11.7 | xGA: 8.3 (+3.4)
xGF: 5.3 | xGA: 7.3 (-2.0)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Fleetwood Town16th
Bristol Rovers17thxGF: 8.9 | xGA: 5.4 (+3.5)
xGF: 6.7 | xGA: 8.4 (-1.7)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Oldham21st
Crawley Town24thxGF: 7.5 | xGA: 7.1 (+0.4)
xGF: 6.9 | xGA: 7.3 (-0.3)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Shrewsbury15th
Gillingham8thxGF: 9.4 | xGA: 6.6 (+2.8)
xGF: 6.5 | xGA: 8.5 (-2.0)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Swindon Town13th
Rotherham22ndxGF: 7.0 | xGA: 8.9 (-1.9)
xGF: 5.6 | xGA: 8.8 (-3.2)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Accrington ST9th
Northampton20thxGF: 6.1 | xGA: 3.6 (+2.5)
xGF: 5.5 | xGA: 8.2 (-2.8)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Colchester23rd
Walsall3rdxGF: 6.4 | xGA: 7.1 (-0.7)
xGF: 8.9 | xGA: 10.2 (-1.3)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Crewe4th
Barnet2ndxGF: 4.9 | xGA: 6.0 (-1.1)
xGF: 9.3 | xGA: 6.5 (+2.8)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Tranmere11th
Cheltenham5thxGF: 6.2 | xGA: 5.9 (+0.3)
xGF: 5.2 | xGA: 7.9 (-2.7)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Salford City1st
Exeter City12thxGF: 6.8 | xGA: 5.2 (+1.5)
xGF: 5.6 | xGA: 5.7 (0.0)
31 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Matchday 14 - Historical Insights
Playoff Race: Teams in 6th place at matchday 14 have averaged 24 points historically.
Relegation Battle: Teams in 22nd at matchday 14 have averaged 11 points historically.
Current League Two Table
League Two Table
League Two
Updated: 03 Nov 2026, 1:57 PM
Key Storylines This Week
What to Watch For
- Seven straight, and nobody left unbeaten: Salford City have won their last seven league matches and have twenty-eight points from thirteen, more than any other club in the division, a record of nine wins, one draw and three defeats. The last of those seven wins was the one that changed the division’s shape: Walsall went into Monday night as the only club in the Championship, League One or League Two still unbeaten, and Salford beat them 4-2 at the Bescot. There is now no unbeaten side left in the EFL. Walsall remain awkward — seven draws in twelve and only eleven conceded — but the run is gone. After thirteen rounds the goal rates the model works from all sit between 1.04 and 1.56 a side, and rates in that range keep winning margins tight.
- Twelve home calls out of twelve: The model gives the home side the edge in every one of these twelve fixtures. That is not a statement of confidence: its draw probabilities add up to 3.28 across the round, so it expects three or so draws without being able to name one, and its firmest opinion all week is Swindon Town against Rotherham at 49.0% — still under half. What it is saying is that on a card with no obvious mismatch, home advantage is the only signal left standing. Budgets sit closer together in this division than in the two above it, so the probabilities sit closer to the base rates, and home advantage is a base rate.
- One model here, not two: Unlike the divisions above, League Two has no separate 1X2 model. The home, draw and away figures and the scorelines all come from leaguetwo_poisson_v1, a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction: the percentages are that grid’s cells summed into the three outcomes. There is therefore nothing here for two models to agree or disagree about, and any post that says otherwise is wrong.
League Two Top Scorers
Top Scorers Heading into Gameweek 14 — clubs have played between eleven and thirteen matches, so these tallies are not directly comparable
Top Assists — 2026/27 season
Top Assist Providers
League Two Top Assists
Head to Head
Salford City vs Exeter City
Last 5 league meetings
| Date | Home | Score | Away | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 2026-27 | Salford City | 2 - 1 | Exeter City | 1.2 - 0.9 |
| 12 Mar 2022 2021-22 | Exeter City | 0 - 0 | Salford City | - |
| 30 Oct 2021 2021-22 | Salford City | 1 - 2 | Exeter City | - |
| 27 Mar 2021 2020-21 | Exeter City | 1 - 0 | Salford City | - |
| 12 Sep 2020 2020-21 | Salford City | 2 - 2 | Exeter City | - |
Recent Form Comparison — this season
Exeter City did not play in League Two in 2025/26, so this block shows 2026/27 form for both clubs rather than last season’s.
Form Comparison - Last 13 Games
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 12 | +12 | 31 | LLWWDWWWWWWWW |
| 2 | Exeter City | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 19 | WLDDLDLWWDWWL |
Salford City - Recent Results
Exeter City - Recent Results
There is no xG Trends chart for League Two. Expected-goals coverage in this division is uneven: clubs have expected goals for between ten and twelve of their matches, so a rolling average would cover a different stretch of the season for each one. It is omitted deliberately, not missing.
Goals by Period — this season so far
Salford City - Goals by Time Period 2026/2027
Exeter City - Goals by Time Period 2026/2027
Historical Position at Matchday 14
Exeter City’s 2025/26 line is missing: they were outside League Two that season.
Historical Position Comparison
Salford City - Saturday 31st October 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 (now) | 1st | 31 | +10 | - |
| 2025-26 | 3rd | 25 | +2 | 4th |
| 2024-25 | 13th | 20 | -2 | 8th |
| 2023-24 | 16th | 17 | -1 | 20th |
| 2022-23 | 4th | 27 | +9 | 7th |
| 2021-22 | 17th | 16 | +0 | 10th |
| 2020-21 | 4th | 25 | +11 | 8th |
| 2019-20 | 18th | 17 | -6 | 10th |
Historical Position Comparison
Exeter City - Saturday 31st October 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 (now) | 12th | 19 | +2 | - |
| 2021-22 | 4th | 23 | +9 | 2nd |
| 2020-21 | 6th | 24 | +9 | 9th |
| 2019-20 | 4th | 26 | +3 | 4th |
Player to Watch
Macaulay Langstaff — Salford City
Macaulay Langstaff has five goals in thirteen matches for Salford City, five of the twenty-three they have scored. Exeter City have conceded seven in thirteen.
Radar: 2026/27 season data, 13 rounds in.
Macaulay Langstaff
Salford City • F • 2026-2027 Season
BTP Verdict
The number worth reading here is the margin rather than the score: the goals model puts 68% on this finishing within a goal, and the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13.4%, 1-0 10.8%, 0-0 9.0%. The home side are the lean, by 11.9 percentage points — a side on seven straight wins against the division’s tightest defence, and the model still cannot get past the low forties. A tight, low-scoring afternoon is the shape it projects.
Three clubs are two matches behind
Crawley Town, Northampton and Port Vale have played eleven, four clubs have played twelve and seventeen have played thirteen — all twenty-four accounted for — and five fixtures from earlier rounds are still owed. Northampton are the ones it matters most for: thirteen points from eleven matches, a goal difference of nothing, and eight conceded — only Exeter City have conceded fewer, and Northampton have played two games fewer than most.
Crewe and Barnet are split by 1.2 percentage points in the model
Crewe against Barnet is the closest call of the round at 1.2 of a percentage point, and the only fixture on the card where the home edge is nearly nothing. Crewe have twenty-one points from thirteen with six draws, while Barnet have twenty-five from twelve and a goal difference of +10. Six draws for Crewe against a Barnet side with a game in hand: that is what a coin-flip looks like here.
Matchday 13 produced forty goals in twelve
Four of the twelve finished level and the round produced forty goals in all, an average of 3.33 a game. All three away winners scored at least four: Accrington won 5-0 at Rochdale, Grimsby 4-1 at Gillingham and Salford 4-2 at Walsall. Chesterfield’s 5-1 against Crewe was the widest home margin of the round, and the only home win by more than two. The model answers that with twelve home calls, reading a five-match in-division rate for each side rather than one round.
Exeter City have conceded seven in thirteen
Nobody in the division has conceded fewer than Exeter City’s seven, and they have scored only ten. Seventeen goals in thirteen matches is 1.31 a game, the lowest rate of any club in the division, and it has carried them to nineteen points. They go to Salford City, who have scored twenty-three and won seven in a row, which is the clearest contrast of styles on the card.
Player Watchlist
Three players to keep an eye on this weekend.
- Kabongo Tshimanga (Barnet) — Ten goals from Barnet’s twelve matches, ten of the twenty-seven they have scored.
- Aaron Drinan (Swindon Town) — Eight goals from Swindon Town’s thirteen matches, eight of the thirteen they have scored.
- Aaron Pressley (Walsall) — Eight goals from Walsall’s twelve matches, eight of the eighteen they have scored.
BTP Predictions — Gameweek 14
Final Thoughts
A Friday opener and eleven on Saturday, seven straight wins against the division’s meanest defence, and a model that backs the home side in all twelve fixtures without once calling a draw or an away win. Its firmest opinion all week is 49.0%, which is the honest summary of a division this tightly packed. Five fixtures are still owed and three clubs are two matches behind, so read the points and the matches played together.
Newport County vs Chesterfield
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Newport County, at 41.7% / 26.5% / 31.8% home, draw and away. The goals model puts 66% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12.6%, 2-1 8.9%, 1-0 8.9%, none of them close to certain.
Grimsby vs York
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Grimsby, at 40.4% / 27.9% / 31.7% home, draw and away. The goals model puts 68% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13.3%, 1-0 10.2%, 0-1 8.7%, none of them close to certain.
Port Vale vs Rochdale
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Port Vale, at 44.8% / 27.8% / 27.4% home, draw and away. The goals model puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13.2%, 1-0 11.3%, 2-1 9.0%, none of them close to certain.
Accrington Stanley vs Northampton
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Accrington Stanley, at 48.9% / 26.5% / 24.6% home, draw and away. The goals model puts 65% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12.6%, 1-0 11.0%, 2-1 9.4%, none of them close to certain.
Colchester vs Walsall
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Colchester, at 40.1% / 27.8% / 32.1% home, draw and away. The goals model puts 68% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13.3%, 1-0 10.0%, 0-1 8.7%, none of them close to certain.
Crewe vs Barnet
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Crewe, at 37.0% / 27.2% / 35.8% home, draw and away. The goals model puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12.9%, 1-0 8.7%, 0-1 8.5%, none of them close to certain.
Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Fleetwood Town, at 44.8% / 28.0% / 27.2% home, draw and away. The goals model puts 68% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13.3%, 1-0 11.5%, 0-0 9.2%, none of them close to certain.
Oldham vs Crawley Town
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Oldham, at 43.4% / 27.4% / 29.2% home, draw and away. The goals model puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13.0%, 1-0 10.3%, 2-1 9.0%, none of them close to certain.
Salford City vs Exeter City
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Salford City, at 41.9% / 28.1% / 30.0% home, draw and away. The goals model puts 68% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13.4%, 1-0 10.8%, 0-0 9.0%, none of them close to certain.
Shrewsbury vs Gillingham
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Shrewsbury, at 46.0% / 26.6% / 27.4% home, draw and away. The goals model puts 65% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12.7%, 1-0 10.1%, 2-1 9.3%, none of them close to certain.
Swindon Town vs Rotherham
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Swindon Town, at 49.0% / 26.5% / 24.5% home, draw and away. The goals model puts 65% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12.6%, 1-0 11.0%, 2-1 9.4%, none of them close to certain.
Tranmere vs Cheltenham
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Tranmere, at 42.1% / 27.8% / 30.1% home, draw and away. The goals model puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13.2%, 1-0 10.4%, 2-1 8.8%, none of them close to certain.
🤖 Model Notes — GW14
One model runs on every League Two fixture. leaguetwo_poisson_v1 is a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction: it produces a grid of scoreline probabilities, and the home, draw and away percentages beside each fixture are that grid summed into three outcomes. The three scorelines shown are the grid’s outright likeliest, unfiltered, which is why a fixture’s top entry can be a draw while the bars favour a win. The single score quoted for the match of the week is the likeliest cell consistent with the outcome the bars give. The model is re-run every morning, so a figure here can differ from one printed later in the week.
Model: Poisson + Dixon-Coles goals model (leaguetwo_poisson_v1, deployed September 2026), trained across six League Two seasons (2019/20–2024/25). Both the probabilities and the scorelines come from its grid. A dedicated result model was trained for this division and rejected as no better than the base rates.
Check back after the weekend for our full Gameweek 14 League Two review with match reports and updated standings!
