Ballard’s Chase, Cardiff’s Coronation and a Westcountry Survival Derby — League One Gameweek 43
Competition: Sky Bet League One
Dates: Saturday 11 April 2026
Number of Fixtures: 10 (Stockport & Luton at Wembley on Sunday — EFL Trophy Final)
Leyton Orient: AWAY vs Lincoln City (Sat, 11:30am)
Lincoln City are promoted — the first time in 65 years — and Sincil Bank will be celebrating. But there’s still a League One season to finish, and Saturday’s 10-fixture programme is anything but a formality. Cardiff host Bolton in what could be a decisive moment in the race for second, Exeter desperately need points at Plymouth to keep survival hopes alive, and Leyton Orient head to a party atmosphere in Lincoln knowing three points could ease a nervy end-of-season run-in. Meanwhile Stockport and Luton are absent — both preparing for Sunday’s EFL Trophy Final at Wembley.
Gameweek 43 – Stats & Historical Data
All Fixtures — Head to Head, Form & Historical Positions
League One - Matchday 43 Preview
Season 2025-26 | Powered by 6 seasons of historical data
Cardiff2nd
Bolton3rdxGF: 5.7 | xGA: 5.1 (+0.6)
xGF: 7.7 | xGA: 4.0 (+3.7)
11 Apr 2026 - 2025-26
Plymouth8th
Exeter City21stxGF: 11.5 | xGA: 3.0 (+8.5)
xGF: 7.6 | xGA: 4.2 (+3.3)
11 Apr 2026 - 2025-26
Lincoln1st
Leyton Orient17thxGF: 9.9 | xGA: 7.0 (+2.9)
xGF: 5.3 | xGA: 7.6 (-2.2)
11 Apr 2026 - 2025-26
Wigan13th
Mansfield Town14thxGF: 4.6 | xGA: 9.7 (-5.0)
xGF: 6.8 | xGA: 5.6 (+1.2)
11 Apr 2026 - 2025-26
Rotherham22nd
Barnsley12thxGF: 7.3 | xGA: 8.3 (-1.1)
xGF: 3.9 | xGA: 8.8 (-4.8)
11 Apr 2026 - 2025-26
Burton Albion18th
AFC Wimbledon20thxGF: 2.7 | xGA: 7.9 (-5.2)
xGF: 3.5 | xGA: 6.4 (-2.9)
11 Apr 2026 - 2025-26
Bradford4th
Stevenage6thxGF: 4.2 | xGA: 7.1 (-3.0)
xGF: 5.6 | xGA: 6.0 (-0.5)
11 Apr 2026 - 2025-26
Doncaster15th
Reading9thxGF: 10.4 | xGA: 5.7 (+4.7)
xGF: 6.1 | xGA: 4.8 (+1.3)
11 Apr 2026 - 2025-26
Blackpool19th
Peterborough16thxGF: 8.3 | xGA: 4.4 (+3.9)
xGF: 5.6 | xGA: 10.3 (-4.8)
11 Apr 2026 - 2025-26
Huddersfield7th
Wycombe11thxGF: 7.7 | xGA: 5.3 (+2.4)
xGF: 8.5 | xGA: 6.3 (+2.2)
11 Apr 2026 - 2025-26
Luton10th
Northampton24thxGF: 7.1 | xGA: 10.0 (-2.9)
xGF: 3.6 | xGA: 9.2 (-5.6)
25 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Stockport County5th
Port Vale23rdxGF: 5.8 | xGA: 4.4 (+1.4)
xGF: 6.5 | xGA: 8.3 (-1.7)
27 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Matchday 43 - Historical Insights
Playoff Race: Teams in 6th place at matchday 43 have averaged 72 points historically.
Relegation Battle: Teams in 22nd at matchday 43 have averaged 39 points historically.
Leyton Orient at Matchday 43:
- 2024-25: 6th with 69 pts → Finished 6th
- 2023-24: 10th with 62 pts → Finished 12th
Current League One Table
League One Table
League One
Updated: 15 Apr 2026, 6:00 PM
Leyton Orient at Matchday 43 — Through The Years
Leyton Orient Historical Comparison
Historical Position Comparison
Leyton Orient at Matchday 43
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 (now) | 17th | 51 | -9 | - |
| 2024-25 | 6th | 69 | +19 | 6th |
| 2023-24 | 10th | 62 | +0 | 12th |
Data from 6 League One seasons (2019–2025)
Key Storylines This Week
What to Watch For
- Cardiff vs Bolton — the race for second: Lincoln are up, but the fight for automatic promotion isn’t over. Cardiff lead Bolton by 8 points with 5 games left, but a Bolton win here would reduce that to 5 with four games remaining. Cardiff’s Yousef Salech (12 goals) against a Bolton side who are unbeaten in four needs to be the story of the afternoon.
- Exeter’s great escape bid at Plymouth: Exeter ended a 15-game winless run last week with a 3-0 win over Doncaster, Jayden Wareham scoring twice to reach 18 for the season. But they remain 21st — just three points clear of the bottom three — and Plymouth are a tough ask. A home win for Plymouth, combined with results elsewhere, could put Exeter back in real danger.
- The three-way relegation battle below Exeter: Rotherham (22nd, 37pts), Northampton (23rd, 35pts) and Port Vale (24th, 34pts) are in serious trouble with 5 games left. Rotherham host Barnsley — a tough assignment — while the other two don’t play this weekend. Every point Rotherham drop tightens the noose around their own neck.
League One Top Scorers
Top Scorers Heading into Gameweek 43
Top Assists
Top Assist Providers
League One Top Assists
Head to Head
Cardiff vs Bolton
Last 2 league meetings
| Date | Home | Score | Away | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2026 2025-26 | Cardiff | 2 - 0 | Bolton | - |
| 25 Oct 2025 2025-26 | Bolton | 1 - 0 | Cardiff | - |
Recent Form Comparison
Form Comparison - Last 6 Games
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 | WLDDWD |
| 2 | Bolton | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 8 | DLWDLW |
Cardiff - Recent Results
Bolton - Recent Results
xG Trends
Cardiff - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Bolton - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Goals by Period
Cardiff - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Bolton - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Historical Position at Matchday 43
Historical Position Comparison
Cardiff - Saturday 11th April 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 (now) | 2nd | 82 | +34 | - |
Historical Position Comparison
Bolton - Saturday 11th April 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 (now) | 3rd | 73 | +19 | - |
| 2024-25 | 8th | 66 | -1 | 8th |
| 2023-24 | 3rd | 82 | +33 | 3rd |
| 2022-23 | 6th | 72 | +22 | 5th |
| 2021-22 | 11th | 64 | +12 | 9th |
Player to Watch
Head to Head
Leyton Orient vs Lincoln
Last 5 league meetings
| Date | Home | Score | Away | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2026 2025-26 | Lincoln | 2 - 1 | Leyton Orient | - |
| 25 Oct 2025 2025-26 | Leyton Orient | 1 - 0 | Lincoln | - |
| 15 Feb 2025 2024-25 | Leyton Orient | 3 - 2 | Lincoln | - |
| 05 Oct 2024 2024-25 | Lincoln | 2 - 1 | Leyton Orient | - |
| 29 Mar 2024 2023-24 | Lincoln | 1 - 0 | Leyton Orient | - |
Recent Form Comparison
Form Comparison - Last 6 Games
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lincoln | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 16 | WDWWWW |
| 2 | Leyton Orient | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | WDDLLD |
Leyton Orient - Recent Results
Lincoln - Recent Results
xG Trends
Leyton Orient - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Lincoln - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Goals by Period
Leyton Orient - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Lincoln - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Historical Position at Matchday 43
Historical Position Comparison
Leyton Orient - Saturday 11th April 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 (now) | 17th | 51 | -9 | - |
| 2024-25 | 6th | 69 | +19 | 6th |
| 2023-24 | 10th | 62 | +0 | 12th |
Historical Position Comparison
Lincoln - Saturday 11th April 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 (now) | 1st | 93 | +43 | - |
| 2024-25 | 11th | 58 | +9 | 11th |
| 2023-24 | 6th | 74 | +19 | 7th |
| 2022-23 | 12th | 58 | +4 | 11th |
| 2021-22 | 18th | 49 | +1 | 17th |
| 2020-21 | 3rd | 80 | +33 | 5th |
Leyton Orient Recent Form
Leyton Orient - Recent League Form
Player to Watch
BTP Predictions — Gameweek 43
Our Predictions
Season record: 73/300 (24%)
Final Thoughts
Gameweek 43 is one of those weekends where the table will look very different come 5pm Saturday. If Cardiff win and Rotherham lose, the relegation picture sharpens dramatically with five games to go. And if Orient can sneak a point or three from Sincil Bank, the golden boot race between Dominic Ballard and Jayden Wareham (both on 18 after last week) becomes one of the most compelling end-of-season stories in League One.
Best case for Leyton Orient: Ballard fires them to a shock win at Lincoln — his 22nd of the season — while Cardiff win to ease relegation concerns elsewhere. Orient move up to 13th and the golden boot race stays tight going into the final weeks.
Worst case: Lincoln celebrate in style with a comfortable home win, Ballard is well marshalled, and Orient’s end-of-season malaise continues. Three points dropped in a fixture they should have approached as a free hit.
Leyton Orient Upcoming Fixtures
Next Fixtures
Leyton Orient - Upcoming League Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Leyton Orient | Rotherham |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Blackpool | Leyton Orient |
| 02 May 2026 | Leyton Orient | Burton Albion |
🤖 BTP Machine Learning Model — League One GW43
Probability estimates for all League One GW43 fixtures. The model outputs a home win / draw / away win probability for each match based on rolling form, goals data, and league position over the current season.
Full methodology: ML Model Explainer.
Cardiff vs Bolton
📊 ML Probability — Model: Home win (50.8% / 29.8% / 19.4%)
Match Prediction
Cardiff (2nd, 78pts) vs Bolton (4th, 70pts). The model makes Cardiff clear home favourites at 50.8% with Bolton on just 19.4%. The 8-point gap in the table is doing most of the work here. Bolton’s 29.8% draw probability is the highest of the weekend — away sides in big games often settle for a point.
Plymouth vs Exeter City
📊 ML Probability — Model: Home win (52.2% / 30.8% / 17.0%)
Match Prediction
Plymouth (7th, 62pts) vs Exeter City (21st, 46pts). A 14-place gap produces a strong Plymouth prediction at 52.2%. Exeter’s 3-0 win over Doncaster last week improves their rolling form slightly, but the model sees a 14-position gap as too much to overcome. The 17% away probability reflects how deep in trouble Exeter still are.
Lincoln vs Leyton Orient
📊 ML Probability — Model: Home win (74.2% / 17.8% / 8.0%)
Match Prediction
The model’s most one-sided prediction of GW43 and arguably the whole season — 74.2% Lincoln. As League One champions on 90 points, their rolling form metrics are at their peak, and Orient (15th, 50pts) simply can’t match them on paper. The 8% away win probability is the lowest in both previews this weekend.
Huddersfield vs Wycombe
📊 ML Probability — Model: Away win (40.2% / 18.4% / 41.4%)
Match Prediction
The most evenly contested match in the model — 40.2% home vs 41.4% away, with Wycombe (11th, 59pts) marginally preferred away at Huddersfield (9th, 61pts). Two teams level on form with just 2 points separating them. The model essentially calls this a toss-up with a slight away lean.
Wigan vs Mansfield Town
📊 ML Probability — Model: Home win (35.6% / 32.2% / 32.2%)
Match Prediction
Three-way split: 35.6% Wigan, 32.2% draw, 32.2% Mansfield. The model has virtually no opinion here beyond a slight home lean — Wigan (18th, 49pts) and Mansfield (12th, 53pts) are evenly matched by rolling form despite the 6-position gap. The 32.2% draw is a realistic outcome.
Rotherham vs Barnsley
📊 ML Probability — Model: Home win (50.4% / 15.0% / 34.6%)
Match Prediction
A home-leaning prediction despite Rotherham (22nd, 37pts) being in serious relegation trouble. Barnsley (14th, 51pts) are the away favourites at 34.6% but the model still gives Rotherham a slight home edge — their home rolling form must be marginally better than their overall position suggests. The 15% draw probability is low, pointing to a result-heavy fixture.
Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon
📊 ML Probability — Model: Home win (45.2% / 17.8% / 37.0%)
Match Prediction
Burton (19th, 48pts) vs AFC Wimbledon (16th, 50pts) — a slight home lean of 45.2% with Wimbledon on 37% away. Two mid-to-lower table sides with similar form metrics; Burton’s home advantage is the deciding factor in the model’s call.
Bradford vs Stevenage
📊 ML Probability — Model: Home win (40.4% / 27.6% / 32.0%)
Match Prediction
Bradford (3rd, 71pts) host Stevenage (6th, 64pts) in a playoff-zone battle. The model gives Bradford a 40.4% home win with Stevenage 32% away — a notable away probability for the higher-seeded home side, reflecting Stevenage’s own strong form. The 27.6% draw is elevated, suggesting the model expects a tight game.
Doncaster vs Reading
📊 ML Probability — Model: Away win (30.0% / 20.2% / 49.8%)
Match Prediction
Reading (8th, 62pts) are almost even-money away favourites at 49.8% against Doncaster (17th, 50pts). Jack Marriott (16 goals) driving Reading’s attack means their goal-scoring metrics are high, and their league position makes this one of the clearest away calls of the weekend.
Blackpool vs Peterborough
📊 ML Probability — Model: Away win (23.4% / 35.6% / 41.0%)
Match Prediction
Peterborough (13th, 51pts) are away favourites at 41% over Blackpool (20th, 48pts). The 35.6% draw probability is the highest in the League One round — two sides without strong recent form metrics producing a cautious model output. Peterborough edge it but this is far from certain.
🤖 Model Notes — League One GW43
All 43 predictions were generated fresh after the GW42 import completed, using rolling form windows up to the point of each fixture’s kickoff. Position bands update each matchday so the model always reflects the current table.
Model: Random Forest (500 estimators), trained on 3,266 League One matches (2019/20–2024/25). Log loss 1.040 vs baseline 1.072. Full methodology here.
Check back after the weekend for our full Gameweek 43 League One review with match reports and updated standings!
