League One Gameweek 40 Preview: Orient Flying, Port Vale Sinking — and the BTP Model Makes Its Debut
Gameweek 40 Preview: Competition: Sky Bet League One Dates: Saturday 28 March 2026 Number of Fixtures: 5 (Bradford vs Plymouth postponed) Leyton Orient: AWAY vs Exeter City (Sat, 3:00pm)
The international break is over and League One returns with a tight five-game card this Saturday. Lincoln City’s march towards the title continues from the summit, but there’s plenty of drama below — Leyton Orient arrive at St James Park on a four-game winning run, Port Vale are 11 points adrift at the foot of the table following another defeat in midweek, and Stockport County have a chance to put serious pressure on the play-off spots. This is also the first gameweek in which the BTP machine learning prediction model goes live for League One — see the ML Predictions tab for probabilities on all five fixtures.
Gameweek 40 – Stats & Historical Data
All Fixtures — Head to Head, Form & Historical Positions
League One - Matchday 40 Preview
Season 2025-26 | Powered by 6 seasons of historical data
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Wycombe 3 wins, 3 draws, Port Vale 0 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Wycombe 4-0 Port Vale (xG: 2.8-0.8)
2025-26: Port Vale 0-0 Wycombe (xG: 1.2-2.3)
2023-24: Port Vale 1-2 Wycombe
Exeter City vs Leyton Orient - Historical Insights
Exeter City at Matchday 40:
2024-25: 15th with 49 pts → Finished 16th
2023-24: 16th with 48 pts → Finished 13th
2022-23: 11th with 53 pts → Finished 14th
Leyton Orient at Matchday 40:
2024-25: 8th with 62 pts → Finished 6th
2023-24: 11th with 59 pts → Finished 12th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Exeter City 1 wins, 2 draws, Leyton Orient 3 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Exeter City 0-0 Leyton Orient (xG: 1.7-1.4)
2025-26: Leyton Orient 2-1 Exeter City (xG: 1.5-1.9)
2024-25: Exeter City 2-6 Leyton Orient
Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon - Historical Insights
Stockport County at Matchday 40:
2024-25: 5th with 72 pts → Finished 3rd
AFC Wimbledon at Matchday 40:
2021-22: 22nd with 34 pts → Finished 23rd
2020-21: 19th with 40 pts → Finished 19th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Stockport County 1 wins, 0 draws, AFC Wimbledon 0 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Stockport County 3-0 AFC Wimbledon
Huddersfield vs Cardiff - Historical Insights
Huddersfield at Matchday 40:
2024-25: 9th with 61 pts → Finished 10th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Huddersfield 0 wins, 1 draws, Cardiff 1 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Huddersfield 1-1 Cardiff
2025-26: Cardiff 3-2 Huddersfield
Bolton vs Stevenage - Historical Insights
Bolton at Matchday 40:
2024-25: 7th with 63 pts → Finished 8th
2023-24: 3rd with 75 pts → Finished 3rd
2022-23: 6th with 67 pts → Finished 5th
2021-22: 11th with 59 pts → Finished 9th
Stevenage at Matchday 40:
2024-25: 14th with 49 pts → Finished 14th
2023-24: 6th with 65 pts → Finished 9th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Bolton 3 wins, 3 draws, Stevenage 0 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Bolton 5-1 Stevenage
2025-26: Stevenage 0-0 Bolton
2024-25: Bolton 1-1 Stevenage
Rotherham vs Luton - Historical Insights
Rotherham at Matchday 40:
2024-25: 13th with 51 pts → Finished 13th
2021-22: 2nd with 81 pts → Finished 2nd
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Rotherham 0 wins, 1 draws, Luton 0 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Luton 0-0 Rotherham (xG: 0.3-0.1)
Bradford vs Plymouth - Historical Insights
Plymouth at Matchday 40:
2022-23: 1st with 86 pts → Finished 1st
2021-22: 4th with 74 pts → Finished 7th
2020-21: 16th with 52 pts → Finished 18th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Bradford 1 wins, 0 draws, Plymouth 0 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Plymouth 0-1 Bradford
Doncaster vs Lincoln - Historical Insights
Doncaster at Matchday 40:
2021-22: 23rd with 30 pts → Finished 22nd
2020-21: 12th with 58 pts → Finished 14th
Lincoln at Matchday 40:
2024-25: 12th with 53 pts → Finished 11th
2023-24: 7th with 65 pts → Finished 7th
2022-23: 15th with 50 pts → Finished 11th
2021-22: 18th with 48 pts → Finished 17th
2020-21: 5th with 70 pts → Finished 5th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Doncaster 4 wins, 1 draws, Lincoln 1 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Lincoln 2-1 Doncaster (xG: 0.5-3.1)
2021-22: Lincoln 0-1 Doncaster
2021-22: Doncaster 0-0 Lincoln
Northampton vs Barnsley - Historical Insights
Northampton at Matchday 40:
2024-25: 19th with 43 pts → Finished 19th
2023-24: 13th with 53 pts → Finished 14th
2020-21: 20th with 39 pts → Finished 22nd
Barnsley at Matchday 40:
2024-25: 11th with 54 pts → Finished 12th
2023-24: 5th with 71 pts → Finished 6th
2022-23: 4th with 75 pts → Finished 4th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Northampton 0 wins, 3 draws, Barnsley 2 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Barnsley 2-2 Northampton
2024-25: Northampton 1-2 Barnsley
2024-25: Barnsley 2-2 Northampton
Peterborough vs Mansfield Town - Historical Insights
Peterborough at Matchday 40:
2024-25: 16th with 48 pts → Finished 18th
2023-24: 4th with 74 pts → Finished 4th
2022-23: 5th with 67 pts → Finished 6th
2020-21: 2nd with 74 pts → Finished 2nd
Mansfield Town at Matchday 40:
2024-25: 17th with 47 pts → Finished 17th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Peterborough 1 wins, 0 draws, Mansfield Town 2 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Mansfield Town 1-2 Peterborough
2024-25: Mansfield Town 4-2 Peterborough
2024-25: Peterborough 0-3 Mansfield Town
Current League One Table
League One Table
League One
Pos
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
1
Lincoln
42
28
9
5
79
36
43
93
2
Cardiff
42
24
10
8
77
43
34
82
3
Bolton
43
19
16
8
64
45
19
73
4
Stockport County
42
21
8
13
52
46
6
71
5
Bradford
42
21
8
13
52
46
6
71
6
Stevenage
42
19
10
13
44
43
1
67
7
Huddersfield
43
17
12
14
66
57
9
63
8
Plymouth
42
19
6
17
66
58
8
63
9
Reading
43
16
14
13
62
55
7
62
10
Luton
41
17
10
14
57
50
7
61
11
Wycombe
43
16
12
15
63
51
12
60
12
Barnsley
41
14
13
14
63
65
-2
55
13
Wigan
43
14
13
16
49
56
-7
55
14
Mansfield Town
41
13
15
13
50
43
7
54
15
Doncaster
42
15
8
19
43
64
-21
53
16
Peterborough
41
15
6
20
60
58
2
51
17
Leyton Orient
43
14
9
20
57
66
-9
51
18
Burton Albion
43
13
12
18
46
56
-10
51
19
Blackpool
43
14
9
20
51
65
-14
51
20
AFC Wimbledon
42
14
8
20
49
63
-14
50
21
Exeter City
43
12
11
20
47
55
-8
47
22
Rotherham
42
9
10
23
36
65
-29
37
23
Port Vale
40
8
11
21
30
54
-24
35
24
Northampton
41
9
8
24
34
60
-26
35
← scroll →
Updated: 15 Apr 2026, 6:00 PM
Leyton Orient at Matchday 40 — Through The Years
Leyton Orient Historical Comparison
Historical Position Comparison
Leyton Orient at Matchday 40
Season
Pos
Pts
GD
xGD
Form
Final
2025-26(now)
17th
51
-9
-4.6
DDLLD
-
2024-25
8th
62
+16
+0.0
LWWLW
6th
2023-24
11th
59
+0
+0.0
LLDWD
12th
Data from 6 League One seasons (2019–2025)
Key Storylines This Week
What to Watch For
Ballard Closing In: Dominic Ballard’s 21-goal tally gives him a four-goal lead at the top of the League One scoring charts. An away trip to a side that has shipped four in one game this week represents an ideal opportunity to extend it further before the run-in.
Port Vale’s Survival Nightmare: Tuesday night’s 1-0 defeat at Doncaster — sealed by an unfortunate own goal — leaves the Valiants 11 points from safety with just six games remaining. A win at Wycombe is essentially non-negotiable. Mathematically it remains possible; practically, it is looking increasingly bleak.
Cardiff’s Wobble — and Lincoln’s Opportunity: With Cardiff having drawn their last home fixture and concerns growing about their tempo dropping from earlier in the season, Lincoln’s seven-point lead at the top looks increasingly secure. The title may effectively be decided over the next fortnight.
League One Top Scorers
Top Scorers Heading into Gameweek 40
1.
Dominic Ballard (Leyton Orient)
21
2.
Kyle Wootton (Stockport County)
17
3.
Jayden Wareham (Exeter City)
16
4.
Jack Marriott (Reading)
16
5.
Ashley Fletcher (Blackpool)
15
← scroll →
Top Assists
Top Assist Providers
League One Top Assists
Rank
Player
Team
Assists
1
Reyes Cleary
Barnsley
12
2
Lewis Wing
Reading
11
3
Ilmari Niskanen
Exeter City
11
← scroll →
⭐ Match of the Week: Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon
Saturday 28 March, 3:00pm — Edgeley Park
Stockport County sit fifth with two games in hand on Bradford City directly above them. Three points here and they move level on points with Bradford, with those games in hand still to come — a genuine play-off position could be consolidated or even improved significantly before the end of March. AFC Wimbledon arrive as opposition who will make this difficult, but the gulf in league position and form is substantial. This is exactly the kind of fixture Stockport need to win if their promotion push is to be taken seriously.
Head to Head
Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon
Last 1 league meetings
Stockport County1Wins
0Draws
AFC Wimbledon0Wins
Total Goals: 3 - 0
Date
Home
Score
Away
xG
28 Mar 2026 2025-26
Stockport County
3 - 0
AFC Wimbledon
-
Recent Form Comparison
Form Comparison - Last 6 Games
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
Form
1
Stockport County
6
3
2
1
12
7
+5
11
LWDWWD
2
AFC Wimbledon
6
0
1
5
3
13
-10
1
LDLLLL
Stockport County - Recent Results
L1-3vs Lincoln (A)
W2-1vs Northampton (H)
D1-1vs Luton (A)
W3-0vs AFC Wimbledon (H)
W3-0vs Wycombe (H)
D2-2vs Bolton (A)
AFC Wimbledon - Recent Results
L2-4vs Leyton Orient (H)
D1-1vs Peterborough (H)
L0-3vs Stockport County (A)
L0-1vs Lincoln (A)
L0-3vs Luton (H)
L0-1vs Burton Albion (A)
xG Trends
Stockport County - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
AFC Wimbledon - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Goals by Period
Stockport County - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Best Scoring Period
76-90+ mins
Most Vulnerable Period
76-90+ mins
AFC Wimbledon - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Best Scoring Period
61-75 mins
Most Vulnerable Period
76-90+ mins
Historical Position at Matchday 40
Historical Position Comparison
Stockport County - Saturday 28th March 2026
Season
Pos
Pts
GD
xGD
Form
Final
2025-26(now)
5th
71
+6
-2.3
DLWWL
-
2024-25
5th
72
+19
+0.0
WWLWW
3rd
Historical Position Comparison
AFC Wimbledon - Saturday 28th March 2026
Season
Pos
Pts
GD
xGD
Form
Final
2025-26(now)
20th
50
-14
-6.6
DLLLL
-
2021-22
22nd
34
-22
+0.0
LLLLD
23rd
2020-21
19th
40
-22
+0.0
WLLWD
19th
Player to Watch
Kyle Wootton — Stockport County
With 17 goals this season, Wootton is second only to Ballard in the League One scoring charts and the focal point of everything Stockport do going forward. In a match where Stockport are heavy favourites to control possession and territory, expect Wootton to have significant opportunities. He will be the difference if Stockport are to take the three points their league position demands.
Kyle Wootton
Stockport County • F • 2025-2026 Season
40 apps18 goals3 assists7.01 avg rating
BTP Verdict
Stockport have too much at stake and too much quality to drop points here. The games in hand on Bradford make this a must-win in all but name, and Edgeley Park should provide the atmosphere to drive them over the line. Wootton to be the difference.
Prediction
Stockport 2-0 Wimbledon
One to Watch
Kyle Wootton
Key Battle
Wootton vs Wimbledon CB
Leyton Orient at Exeter City — Saturday 3:00pm
The Opposition: Exeter City are in the midst of a serious slump — five defeats in their last six fixtures, including a 4-0 home loss to Cardiff. The appointment of Wilf Walsh as the club’s fourth chairman in under a year signals ongoing instability off the pitch, though Jayden Wareham’s 16 goals remain a genuine threat. A side this low on confidence and momentum at home is precisely the kind of fixture Orient will want to target.
Key Battle: Dominic Ballard versus Exeter’s central defensive partnership will be the decisive contest. Ballard is in the form of his life — four goals in the last four games — and Exeter have been shipping them at an alarming rate. If he finds space behind a defence that has been poorly organised lately, this could get uncomfortable for the hosts.
What We Think: Orient’s four-game winning run has the hallmarks of a side with real momentum — winning away at both Wimbledon (4-2) and Stevenage in recent weeks. Exeter’s form is as bad as anyone’s in the division right now. Even accounting for home advantage, the weight of evidence points one way.
Head to Head
Leyton Orient vs Exeter City
Last 5 league meetings
Leyton Orient2Wins
2Draws
Exeter City1Wins
Total Goals: 10 - 6
Date
Home
Score
Away
xG
28 Mar 2026 2025-26
Exeter City
0 - 0
Leyton Orient
1.7 - 1.4
15 Nov 2025 2025-26
Leyton Orient
2 - 1
Exeter City
1.5 - 1.9
28 Jan 2025 2024-25
Exeter City
2 - 6
Leyton Orient
-
01 Oct 2024 2024-25
Leyton Orient
0 - 1
Exeter City
-
09 Apr 2024 2023-24
Leyton Orient
2 - 2
Exeter City
-
Recent Form Comparison
Form Comparison - Last 6 Games
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
Form
1
Leyton Orient
6
1
3
2
4
4
0
6
WDDLLD
2
Exeter City
6
1
2
3
7
8
-1
5
LLDLWD
Leyton Orient - Recent Results
W2-0vs Wycombe (H)
D0-0vs Exeter City (A)
D0-0vs Wigan (A)
L1-2vs Huddersfield (H)
L1-2vs Lincoln (A)
D0-0vs Mansfield Town (H)
Exeter City - Recent Results
L2-3vs Luton (A)
L0-2vs Wigan (A)
D0-0vs Leyton Orient (H)
L0-1vs Blackpool (A)
W3-0vs Doncaster (H)
D2-2vs Plymouth (A)
xG Trends
Leyton Orient - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Exeter City - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Goals by Period
Leyton Orient - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Best Scoring Period
46-60 mins
Most Vulnerable Period
76-90+ mins
Exeter City - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Best Scoring Period
46-60 mins
Most Vulnerable Period
16-30 mins
Historical Position at Matchday 40
Historical Position Comparison
Leyton Orient - Saturday 28th March 2026
Season
Pos
Pts
GD
xGD
Form
Final
2025-26(now)
17th
51
-9
-4.6
DDLLD
-
2024-25
8th
62
+16
+0.0
LWWLW
6th
2023-24
11th
59
+0
+0.0
LLDWD
12th
Historical Position Comparison
Exeter City - Saturday 28th March 2026
Season
Pos
Pts
GD
xGD
Form
Final
2025-26(now)
21st
47
-8
-1.4
LDLWD
-
2024-25
15th
49
-12
+0.0
DDLWD
16th
2023-24
16th
48
-19
+0.0
LDWWD
13th
2022-23
11th
53
+6
+0.0
LWWDL
14th
Leyton Orient Recent Form
Leyton Orient - Recent League Form
DLLDDW
Player to Watch
Dominic Ballard — Leyton Orient
Twenty-one goals and counting — Ballard leads the League One scoring charts by four and has scored in each of Orient’s last four games. He is the central figure in everything Orient do offensively and represents an enormous threat for an Exeter side that has conceded 12 goals in their last five matches. With the golden boot increasingly within reach as the season enters its final straight, expect him to be highly motivated.
Dominic Ballard
Leyton Orient • F • 2025-2026 Season
37 apps22 goals4 assists6.96 avg rating
BTP Verdict
Orient’s form, Ballard’s goal threat, and Exeter’s alarming defensive collapse make this look a strong away win on paper. The only caveat is that Exeter still have Wareham, and a side fighting to avoid the lower reaches of the table can occasionally produce a gritty home performance. We’re backing Orient to win this comfortably.
Prediction
Exeter 0-2 Orient
One to Watch
Dominic Ballard
Key Battle
Ballard vs Exeter CB
BTP Predictions — Gameweek 40
Our Predictions
Season record: Updated after GW40
Blackpool vs Burton Albion
0-1
Exeter City vs Leyton Orient
0-2
Reading vs Wigan Athletic
2-0
Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon
2-0
Wycombe Wanderers vs Port Vale
2-0
← scroll →
Final Thoughts
A five-game card but no shortage of narrative. The top of the table is settling — Lincoln look increasingly like champions-elect — but the play-off places remain genuinely fluid, and Port Vale’s situation is becoming critical with the clock running down on the season. The international break may have come at an unwelcome time for sides in good form like Orient, though their last six suggests the momentum is carrying through regardless.
Best case for Leyton Orient: Ballard scores twice, Orient win 2-0, and he stretches his lead at the top of the scoring charts to six with five games to play.
Worst case: Exeter produce a desperate, high-energy home display driven by survival adrenaline and nick a draw — halting the four-game winning run and leaving Orient frustrated.
Leyton Orient Upcoming Fixtures
Next Fixtures
Leyton Orient - Upcoming League Fixtures
Date
Home
Away
18 Apr 2026
Leyton Orient
Rotherham
25 Apr 2026
Blackpool
Leyton Orient
02 May 2026
Leyton Orient
Burton Albion
🤖 BTP Machine Learning Model — League One Debut
This is the first gameweek in which the BTP ML model generates probability estimates for League One fixtures. The model is trained on 3,266 matches across six seasons (2019/20–2024/25), using rolling form, goals data, and league position. It outputs a probability for each of the three outcomes — home win, draw, away win — for every upcoming fixture.
For the full methodology, results and an honest assessment of what the model can and cannot do, see our ML Model Explainer.
How to read these charts: Each bar shows the model’s probability for home win (blue), draw (grey), and away win (red). The longer the segment, the more likely that outcome according to the model. These are not betting tips — they are a data-driven perspective on each fixture based on form and league position going into the game.
Blackpool vs Burton Albion
📊 ML Probability — Bloomfield Road
Match Prediction
Burton arrive as slight model favourites (51.6%) despite playing away — a reflection of the significant gap between the two sides in the table. The model assigns home advantage to Blackpool but judges Burton’s superior league position and form as the overriding factor.
Exeter City vs Leyton Orient
📊 ML Probability — St James Park
Match Prediction
The model’s most uncertain fixture of the week — a near three-way split at 29% / 35% / 36%. Orient are narrow favourites but the model is essentially saying this is a coin flip. When probabilities are this close to each other and to the baseline, it typically reflects two sides whose recent form and league position are difficult to separate statistically. The eye test, however, strongly favours Orient given Exeter’s slump.
Reading vs Wigan Athletic
📊 ML Probability — Select Car Leasing Stadium
Match Prediction
Reading are the model’s most confident home selection this week at 60.2%. A combination of home advantage, strong league position, and the rolling form of Jack Marriott (16 goals) gives Reading a clear edge in the model’s assessment. Wigan’s away record is likely a significant factor here too.
Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon
📊 ML Probability — Edgeley Park
Match Prediction
Stockport at 58.4% reflects the league position gap and their home record. The model is aligned with the match of the week analysis — this is a fixture Stockport should be winning at home, and the numbers support that view clearly.
Wycombe Wanderers vs Port Vale
📊 ML Probability — Adams Park
Match Prediction
Port Vale’s plight is fully reflected in the model — Wycombe are 59.6% home favourites against a side rooted to the foot of the table. Crucially, the model will have captured Tuesday night’s 1-0 defeat to Doncaster in Port Vale’s rolling form figures, making their away record look as bleak as it has all season. At 11 points from safety with six games left, the gap is severe.
🤖 Model Notes — GW40
Most confident: Reading vs Wigan (60.2% home) and Wycombe vs Port Vale (59.6% home). Both reflect large league position differentials — the single strongest signal in the model.
Most uncertain: Exeter vs Orient (29% / 35% / 36%). The model cannot find a strong statistical separation between these sides despite the eye-test narrative being clear. This is a genuine coin flip in the data.
Interesting call: Burton at Blackpool as 51.6% away favourites. Burton’s league position advantage overrides Blackpool’s home edge according to the model — worth watching to see if it’s right.
Model: Random Forest, trained on 3,266 League One matches (2019/20–2024/25). Log loss 1.040 vs baseline 1.072. Full methodology here.
Check back after the weekend for our full Gameweek 40 League One review with match reports and updated standings!
Kieron is a healthcare professional turned data analyst and football obsessive. BeyondThePrem was built from scratch as a passion project — the ML models, the pipeline and the plugin are all his own work. He thinks the Championship is the most interesting division in world football and has the spreadsheets to prove it.
Reading9th
Wigan13th
Blackpool19th
Burton Albion18th
Wycombe11th
Port Vale23rd
Exeter City21st
Leyton Orient17th
Stockport County5th
AFC Wimbledon20th
Huddersfield7th
Cardiff2nd
Bolton3rd
Stevenage6th
Rotherham22nd
Luton10th
Bradford4th
Plymouth8th
Doncaster15th
Lincoln1st
Northampton24th
Barnsley12th
Peterborough16th
Mansfield Town14th