Four Games to Go: What the Data Says About the Championship Run-In

CHAMPIONSHIP · RUN-IN ANALYSIS

Four Games to Go

13th April 2026 · After GW42 · 50 fixtures remaining (GW43–46) · ML xPts projections

85pts

Coventry — almost there

5pts

3rd to 6th — playoff seeding fight

−6pts

Leicester PSR deduction confirmed

All 12 GW42 fixtures are done. Coventry need two points from four games to be mathematically certain of the title. Ipswich are already confirmed as champions-elect in second. The real action is below them: three teams scrapping for the last four playoff spots, and a relegation battle that changed shape entirely on 8th April when Leicester’s PSR appeal was rejected.

Below is everything the BTP logistic regression model says about how the final 50 fixtures (plus two postponed games) play out. These are ML Expected Points Projections — not simulation outputs. xPts = (3 × win probability) + (1 × draw probability) per remaining fixture, summed. Model: Platt-calibrated logistic regression, log loss 1.064 vs baseline 1.073.

Jump to:
Current Table ·
ML xPts Projections ·
Playoff Race ·
Hull vs Wrexham ·
Relegation Battle ·
Fixture Probabilities ·
Methodology

The State of Play After GW42

Sheffield Wednesday are confirmed relegated. Leicester sit 23rd after their PSR deduction. Coventry lead by ten points. Here is the full table.

■ Auto promotion
■ Playoff zone
■ Relegation danger
■ Relegated

#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Left
1	Coventry	42	25	10	7	84	42	+42	85	4
2	Ipswich	40	21	12	7	71	40	+31	75	6
3	Millwall	42	21	10	11	56	47	+9	73	4
4	Middlesbrough	42	20	12	10	62	42	+20	72	4
5	Southampton	41	19	12	10	70	50	+20	69	5
6	Hull City	42	20	8	14	64	60	+4	68	4
7	Wrexham †	42	17	13	12	63	60	+3	64	4
8	Derby	42	18	9	15	61	53	+8	63	4
9	Norwich	42	17	7	18	55	50	+5	58	4
10	Bristol City	42	16	10	16	52	51	+1	58	4
11	QPR	42	16	10	16	58	63	−5	58	4
12	Watford	42	14	15	13	52	51	+1	57	4
13	Preston	42	14	15	13	50	53	−3	57	4
14	Swansea	42	16	9	17	50	54	−4	57	4
15	Birmingham	42	15	11	16	51	52	−1	56	4
16	Stoke City	42	15	10	17	49	46	+3	55	4
17	Sheffield Utd	42	16	6	20	59	59	0	54	4
18	Charlton	42	12	13	17	39	51	−12	49	4
19	Blackburn	42	12	12	18	38	50	−12	48	4
20	West Brom	42	11	13	18	42	56	−14	46	4
21	Portsmouth	41	11	12	18	41	57	−16	45	5
22	Oxford United	42	10	14	18	41	54	−13	44	4
23	Leicester −6pts PSR	42	11	14	17	54	64	−10	41	4
24	Sheffield Wed RELEGATED	42	1	11	30	25	82	−57	14	4

← scroll →

† Wrexham: fixture-count verified at 64pts. API shows incorrect 68pts. Ipswich have 6 games remaining including postponed GW26 (Portsmouth, Apr 14) and GW40 (Southampton, Apr 28). Portsmouth have 5 remaining.

Current Championship Standings

Championship Table

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Coventry	42	25	10	7	84	42	+42	85
2	Ipswich	40	21	12	7	71	40	+31	75
3	Millwall	42	21	10	11	56	47	+9	73
4	Middlesbrough	42	20	12	10	62	42	+20	72
5	Southampton	41	19	12	10	70	50	+20	69
6	Hull City	42	20	8	14	64	60	+4	68
7	Wrexham	42	17	13	12	63	60	+3	64
8	Derby	42	18	9	15	61	53	+8	63
9	Norwich	42	17	7	18	55	50	+5	58
10	Bristol City	42	16	10	16	52	51	+1	58
11	QPR	42	16	10	16	58	63	-5	58
12	Watford	42	14	15	13	52	51	+1	57
13	Preston	42	14	15	13	50	53	-3	57
14	Swansea	42	16	9	17	50	54	-4	57
15	Birmingham	42	15	11	16	51	52	-1	56
16	Stoke City	42	15	10	17	49	46	+3	55
17	Sheffield Utd	42	16	6	20	59	59	0	54
18	Charlton	42	12	13	17	39	51	-12	49
19	Blackburn	42	12	12	18	38	50	-12	48
20	West Brom	42	11	13	18	42	56	-14	46
21	Portsmouth	41	11	12	18	41	57	-16	45
22	Oxford United	42	10	14	18	41	54	-13	44
23	Leicester	42	11	14	17	54	64	-10	41
24	Sheffield Wednesday	42	1	11	30	25	82	-57	-4

← scroll →

ML Expected Points Projections

The table below shows each team’s current points, the model’s expected points (xPts) from their remaining games, and the projected final total. xPts = (3 × win prob) + (1 × draw prob) per fixture, summed across all remaining games. These are not guarantees — they are the model’s probability-weighted expectation.

Club	Cur Pts	Games Left	xPts	Proj Total	Zone
AUTO PROMOTION — CONFIRMED
Coventry	85	4	+7.2	92.2	Champions
Ipswich	75	6	+9.1	84.1	Auto P2
PLAYOFF ZONE — SEEDING BATTLE
Millwall	73	4	+6.7	79.7	Proj 3rd
Middlesbrough	72	4	+6.7	78.7	Proj 4th
Southampton	69	5	+9.0	78.0	Proj 5th
Hull City	68	4	+6.2	74.2	Proj 6th
OUTSIDE PLAYOFFS
Derby	63	4	+5.6	68.6	Proj 8th
Wrexham †	64	4	+4.1	68.1	Proj 7th
RELEGATION DANGER ZONE
Blackburn	48	4	+5.0	53.0	Proj safe
West Brom	46	4	+5.6	51.6	Proj safe
Portsmouth	45	5	+5.7	50.7	Proj safe
Oxford United	44	4	+5.4	49.4	RELEGATION ZONE
Leicester City	41	4	+4.9	45.9	RELEGATION ZONE
Sheffield Wed	14	4	+4.3	18.3	CONFIRMED DOWN

← scroll →

† Wrexham: using fixture-verified 64pts. API figure is incorrect. xPts projections are model estimates only — not betting advice.

Story 1: The Playoff Seeding Battle

Millwall, Middlesbrough, Southampton and Hull are separated by just five points. Playoff seeding matters: 3rd plays 6th in the semis, 4th plays 5th. Getting the home leg advantage in the first leg of a two-legged semi-final is a tangible edge.

3RD SEED

Millwall

73pts → 79.7 proj

Remaining: Stoke (A), QPR (H via 44), Leicester (H), Millwall vs Oxford (H GW46)

4TH SEED

Middlesbrough

72pts → 78.7 proj

Remaining: Ipswich (A), Sheff Wed (H), Watford (H), Wrexham (A GW46)

5TH SEED — WILDCARD

Southampton

69pts → 78.0 proj

5 games — highest xPts of any side. Model makes them favourite in 4 of 5. Could finish 3rd or 6th.

6TH SEED — HULL CITY

Hull City

68pts → 74.2 proj

Remaining: Birmingham (H), Leicester (A), Charlton (A), Norwich (H GW46)

Southampton are the key wildcard. With five games left and the model rating them as favourites in four of them, they could climb past both Millwall and Middlesbrough. Their GW43 game at Swansea (50% Southampton) already looks like a must-win if they want to threaten 3rd. But if results go against them, they could also slip to 6th, putting them in the toughest possible semi-final draw.

Seeding matters: If the final order is Millwall 3rd, Middlesbrough 4th, Southampton 5th, Hull 6th — Hull face Millwall at The Den in the first leg. If Southampton surge to 3rd, Hull play them at St Mary’s. The model’s projected draw keeps Hull in 6th, meaning they enter the playoffs as the lowest seed.

Story 2: Hull City vs Wrexham — The Sixth Place Fight

Hull City are 6th on 68pts (fixture-verified). Wrexham are 7th on 64pts (fixture-verified — the API is wrong, showing 68pts, but the fixture count confirms 64pts). Hull have a four-point cushion with four games each remaining.

Hull City — 68pts

Birmingham (H) GW4349% win

Leicester (A) GW4437% win

Charlton (A) GW4538% win

Norwich (H) GW4647% win

+6.2 xPts → 74.2 proj

Wrexham — 64pts †

Stoke (H) GW4333% win ⚠

Oxford (A) GW4429% win

Coventry (A) GW4520% win ⚠

Middlesbrough (H) GW4626% win ⚠

+4.1 xPts → 68.1 proj

The model is clear: Hull should hold 6th. The projected gap at the end is 74.2 vs 68.1 — six points. Wrexham’s remaining schedule is brutal. They are underdogs at home against Stoke in GW43, heavy underdogs at Coventry in GW45, and underdogs at home to Middlesbrough on the final day. Even if Hull had a poor run, Wrexham’s xPts yield from this fixture list is too low to close a four-point gap.

🏆 The verdict on sixth place: Hull City hold a four-point lead in the table and a six-point edge in xPts projections. Barring a near-collapse from the Tigers and a near-perfect run from Wrexham — underdogs in three of four — Hull finish the season in the playoff places.

Story 3: The Relegation Battle — Leicester’s PSR Crisis

Sheffield Wednesday are already down — 14pts, 30 defeats, mathematically confirmed. One more place is to be decided.

Before 8th April, Leicester were 20th on 47pts and the model considered them very likely to survive. Then their PSR appeal was rejected. A six-point deduction was confirmed, dropping them to 41pts — and into 23rd place, in the relegation zone, with four games left.

SAFE (MODEL)

Portsmouth

45pts → 50.7 proj

5 games left — projects safe

DANGER ZONE

Oxford United

44pts → 49.4 proj

In zone — model projects survival

GOING DOWN (MODEL)

Leicester City

41pts → 45.9 proj

3.5pts below Oxford projected total

Leicester’s remaining fixtures are: Portsmouth away (34% win), Hull City away (36% win at Leicester — wait, Hull play Leicester away — Hull are the away team at Leicester), Millwall home (33% win), Blackburn away (27% win). The model makes them underdogs in all four. Their xPts yield of +4.9 from four games as an underdog in each is the lowest of any relegation-threatened side.

Oxford’s remaining fixtures: Derby away (30% win implied — Derby 50% vs Oxford 28%), Wrexham home (47%), Sheffield Wednesday home (53%), Millwall away on the final day (22%). That Millwall away fixture is punishing, but Oxford could be mathematically safe before they get there if they beat Wrexham and Sheffield Wednesday at home.

The GD safety net: If both Oxford and Leicester end level on points, goal difference separates them. Currently: Leicester GD −10, Oxford GD −13. Leicester would survive on GD if the teams finish equal on points. That gives Leicester a slight margin that the raw points gap does not show. But to get there, they need a near-perfect final four games as underdogs.

📅 Model verdict: Leicester go down. Oxford survive. Portsmouth are safe. Sheffield Wednesday are already down. But if Leicester win two of their four games and Oxford fail to beat Wrexham at home, this is still live on the final day.

Fixture Probabilities: Teams in Contention

Win/draw/loss probabilities from the BTP logistic regression model for the remaining fixtures of the six teams still in meaningful contention. Bars show home win / draw / away win probability — the widths are proportional to percentage (200px total).

Millwall — 73pts, 4 remaining

Millwall vs QPR (H)
GW43 · Apr 18

50%

20%

29%

Millwall winDrawQPR win

Stoke City vs Millwall (A)
GW44 · Apr 21

28%

29%

42%

Stoke winDrawMillwall win

Leicester vs Millwall (A)
GW45 · Apr 24

33%

28%

39%

Leicester winDrawMillwall win

Millwall vs Oxford United (H)
GW46 · May 2

61%

18%

22%

Millwall winDrawOxford win

Middlesbrough — 72pts, 4 remaining

Ipswich vs Middlesbrough (A)
GW43 · Apr 19

45%

25%

31%

Ipswich winDrawMiddlesbrough win

Middlesbrough vs Sheff Wed (H)
GW44 · Apr 22

64%

17%

20%

Boro winDrawSheff Wed win

Middlesbrough vs Watford (H)
GW45 · Apr 25

53%

21%

26%

Boro winDrawWatford win

Wrexham vs Middlesbrough (A)
GW46 · May 2

26%

28%

47%

Wrexham winDrawBoro win

Southampton — 69pts, 5 remaining (wildcard alert)

⚠ Southampton have the highest xPts yield of any side in contention (+9.0). Five games, model makes them favourite in four. They could finish 3rd or 6th — this is the most volatile position in the top six.

Swansea vs Southampton (A)
GW43 · Apr 18

23%

27%

50%

Swansea winDrawSouthampton win

Southampton vs Bristol City (H)
GW44 · Apr 21

56%

20%

24%

Southampton winDrawBristol City win

Southampton vs Blackburn (H — GW45 rescheduled)
Apr 14 *played today*

62%

17%

20%

Southampton winDrawBlackburn win

Southampton vs Ipswich (H — postponed GW40)
Apr 28

47%

23%

30%

Southampton winDrawIpswich win

Preston vs Southampton (A)
GW46 · May 2

24%

28%

48%

Preston winDrawSouthampton win

Hull City — 68pts, 4 remaining

Hull City vs Birmingham (H)
GW43 · Apr 18

49%

22%

29%

Hull winDrawBirmingham win

Leicester vs Hull City (A)
GW44 · Apr 21

36%

27%

37%

Leicester winDrawHull win

Charlton vs Hull City (A)
GW45 · Apr 25

34%

28%

38%

Charlton winDrawHull win

Hull City vs Norwich (H)
GW46 · May 2

47%

24%

29%

Hull winDrawNorwich win

Oxford United — 44pts, 4 remaining

⚠ Oxford are in the relegation zone on 44pts. The model projects +5.4 xPts, putting them at 49.4 — just above the relegation cut. Home games against Wrexham and Sheffield Wednesday are the key. The Millwall away fixture on the last day is brutal but may not matter if Oxford pick up enough points earlier.

Derby vs Oxford United (A)
GW43 · Apr 18

50%

22%

28%

Derby winDrawOxford win

Oxford United vs Wrexham (H)
GW44 · Apr 21

47%

25%

29%

Oxford winDrawWrexham win

Oxford United vs Sheffield Wed (H)
GW45 · Apr 25

53%

21%

26%

Oxford winDrawSheff Wed win

Millwall vs Oxford United (A)
GW46 · May 2

61%

18%

22%

Millwall winDrawOxford win

Leicester City — 41pts, 4 remaining −6pts PSR

🚨 Leicester are underdogs in all four remaining fixtures. The model projects only +4.9 xPts, giving a projected finish of 45.9pts — 3.5pts below Oxford’s projected total of 49.4. They need to significantly outperform their model probabilities to survive.

Portsmouth vs Leicester (A)
GW43 · Apr 18

41%

25%

34%

Portsmouth winDrawLeicester win

Leicester vs Hull City (H)
GW44 · Apr 21

36%

27%

37%

Leicester winDrawHull win

Leicester vs Millwall (H)
GW45 · Apr 24

33%

28%

39%

Leicester winDrawMillwall win

Blackburn vs Leicester (A)
GW46 · May 2

49%

23%

27%

Blackburn winDrawLeicester win

Methodology

Model: BTP Logistic Regression with Platt calibration. Log loss 1.064 vs baseline 1.073 on 2024/25 hold-out test data.

Features: Rolling 5-game and 10-game form (goals scored, goals conceded, points), current league position at kickoff, position band (one-hot encoded). No xG — Championship xG data only covers 2023/24 onwards, insufficient for training.

Training data: 2019/20 – 2023/24 Championship seasons. Rolling windows reset at season boundaries (no cross-season leakage). Crowd-present flag applied for 2019/20 and 2020/21 bubble seasons.

xPts formula: For each remaining fixture, xPts = (3 × win probability) + (1 × draw probability). Summed across all remaining games to produce expected points gain. Added to current points for projected total.

What this is not: These projections are not simulation outputs and are not betting advice. They do not account for injuries, suspensions, managerial sackings, or motivational factors (e.g. a relegated side with nothing to play for). Treat them as a probability-weighted expectation from a trained model — a useful reference point, not a prediction.

Postponed fixtures: Portsmouth vs Ipswich (GW26, Apr 14) and Southampton vs Ipswich (GW40, Apr 28) are included in the respective teams’ xPts calculations. Southampton vs Blackburn (GW45, rescheduled to Apr 14) is also included.

BeyondThePrem.co.uk · Championship Run-In Analysis · Generated 13th April 2026 · After GW42 · Not betting advice · Model log loss 1.064

Tags: championship Championship Predictions League One League One Predictions xG analysis

Four Games to Go: What the Data Says About the Championship Run-In

Kieron

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