The Playoff Shoot-Out — Three into One

Sixth on Friday felt like a two-way race. By Sunday evening Wrexham had lost at the champions, Hull had stumbled at safety-chasing Charlton, Derby had fought back from a goal down at QPR, and Norwich had drawn at home with Swansea. The cumulative effect: a three-team race for sixth, separated by 1 point and 6 goals of goal difference, going into a final-day Saturday in which all twelve fixtures kick off simultaneously at 12:30 BST.

The maths: with one fixture each, Wrexham max 73, Hull max 73, Derby max 72. The cleanest paths are: Wrexham win → near-locked at 73 with the GD edge. Hull win + Wrexham don’t → Hull 73, Wrexham ≤72, Hull take it on points. Derby win + Wrexham lose + Hull don’t win → Derby 72, Wrexham ≤70, Hull ≤72, Derby take it on goal difference. Three teams, one spot, one game each, one whistle for everyone at the same time.

Coventry Crowned — The Title Comes Home

Auto-Promotion — Still Up for Grabs

The second automatic spot is anything but settled. Ipswich (80 pts, 44 played) lead on the table but Millwall (80 pts from 45) match them on points, with Middlesbrough one point back on 79 and Southampton on 76 with a game in hand. Tuesday 28 April brings a high-stakes catch-up: Southampton v Ipswich at St Mary’s, a postponed MD40 fixture that hands Ipswich their game in hand. A Saints win and the auto-promotion door swings open for both Boro and the south-coast side; an Ipswich win and the second spot is theirs barring a final-day collapse.

Relegation Confirmed — Oxford Joins Sheffield Wednesday and Leicester

All MD45 Results

* MD45 fixture played early on 14 April due to Southampton’s FA Cup semi-final commitments.

Model: goals_logreg_v1_cal — Platt-calibrated logistic regression with player-quality features. 5/12 (42%) on outcome accuracy this gameweek — below the season average. Four draws and three away wins where the model leaned home; the running 3-way market hit rate sits in the 38–42% band over the season.

Updated Championship Table

Top Scorers — Final-Day Coda

Hull City — Where the Playoff Hopes Stand

Hull travelled to The Valley needing three points to keep the playoff race in their own hands. The 2-1 defeat means they head into the final day still tied with Wrexham on 70 points, but trailing by 1 on goal difference and unable to control their own destiny: even a final-day win at home to Norwich isn’t enough if Wrexham also beat Middlesbrough.

Hull’s Last Six

One win in six (the 3-1 over Sheffield Wednesday on 21 March). Two further league points dropped from a 1-1 at home to Birmingham and a 2-2 at Leicester. The Charlton defeat was the only one of the run that came against a side outside the top half — and at the worst possible moment.

Final-Day Test — Norwich at the MKM Stadium

Norwich are 9th, on 65 points after the 1-1 at home to Swansea — mathematically eliminated from the top six (their maximum is 68). They arrive at the MKM with nothing material to play for but a thoroughly mid-table side capable of an awkward away day, especially against a home crowd whose nerves will be visible from the kick-off whistle.

The model gives Hull a 47% home-win probability against Norwich’s 29% (24% draw) — the highest home-win lean Hull have enjoyed in any of their MD45–46 fixtures. The pure probability says Hull take three points more often than not from this match. But they need this one, and the playoff seat is occupied for as long as Wrexham don’t slip.

Hull Recent Form Chart

The Final Day — Saturday 2 May 2026, all kick off 12:30 BST

Twelve fixtures, simultaneous kick-off, three races still live: the second auto-promotion spot, the sixth playoff place, and the relegation pecking-order beneath the bottom three. The model’s pre-game leans are below — fixtures that decide a race are highlighted.

The Model — How MD45 Went

The BTP Championship model — a Platt-calibrated logistic regression with player-quality features (goals_logreg_v1_cal) — went 5 out of 12 on outcome accuracy this matchday. Below the season average and on the bad side of normal — but the misses are clustering in a way that’s worth a glance:

• Three draws missed — Leicester 1-1 Millwall, West Brom 0-0 Ipswich, Norwich 1-1 Swansea. The model rarely picks draws as the most-likely outcome and pays the price when several land in a single weekend.
• Three home leans that lost — Stoke 1-3 Portsmouth, Sheffield Utd 2-3 Preston, QPR 2-3 Derby. All three away wins from a model that had the home side as favourite.
• One away lean that lost — Charlton 2-1 Hull City. The model favoured Hull at 41%; Charlton, fighting their own relegation scrap, took three points.

That’s seven misses concentrated in a single matchday — a tough one. The model still beat the prior-only baseline on the season but had a rough week.

Season-to-date Model Accuracy

Accuracy by Predicted Outcome

Final-Day Picks (MD46)

The model’s 12 picks for Saturday’s simultaneous kick-offs. Probabilities are home / draw / away. Race-deciders are highlighted; the pure probabilities don’t change the storyline maths but they tell you where the model thinks the wind is blowing.

Model: goals_logreg_v1_cal (Platt-calibrated logistic regression with player-quality features). BeyondThePrem’s content is analytical and editorial; nothing here is betting advice.