Matchday 11 opens on Friday night with Burnley against Wolves and finishes on Saturday — one at 8pm on Friday, then three at 12.30pm and eight at 3pm on Saturday. The model calls a home win in eight of the twelve and an away win in the other four, and it calls the draw nowhere. That is not this week’s quirk: it has not made the draw its single likeliest outcome in any of the 120 fixtures it has produced probabilities for this season — every one from Matchday 2 to this round, the model producing nothing for Matchday 1 because it needs a completed match from each side. Matchday 10 had forty-five goals and seven away wins in twelve, and the Friday fixture is the closest call on this card.
Gameweek 11 – Stats & Historical Data
All Fixtures — Head to Head, Form & Historical Positions
Championship - Matchday 11 Preview
Season 2026-27 | Powered by 6 seasons of historical data
Burnley22nd
Wolves3rdxGF: 8.2 | xGA: 6.9 (+1.3)
xGF: 8.7 | xGA: 4.7 (+4.0)
16 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Watford21st
Charlton20thxGF: 6.2 | xGA: 10.0 (-3.8)
xGF: 6.7 | xGA: 9.0 (-2.3)
17 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Millwall12th
Lincoln16thxGF: 9.0 | xGA: 5.4 (+3.6)
xGF: 6.1 | xGA: 10.2 (-4.1)
17 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Middlesbrough1st
Cardiff17thxGF: 12.3 | xGA: 3.6 (+8.7)
xGF: 9.2 | xGA: 8.6 (+0.6)
17 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Southampton5th
Bolton19thxGF: 8.5 | xGA: 5.6 (+3.0)
xGF: 8.1 | xGA: 12.2 (-4.1)
17 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Birmingham6th
QPR9thxGF: 9.2 | xGA: 6.9 (+2.4)
xGF: 8.1 | xGA: 5.4 (+2.7)
17 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Bristol City14th
Sheffield Utd10thxGF: 8.1 | xGA: 5.4 (+2.6)
xGF: 7.6 | xGA: 6.0 (+1.6)
17 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
West Brom4th
Blackburn13thxGF: 10.0 | xGA: 6.8 (+3.3)
xGF: 4.8 | xGA: 10.9 (-6.0)
17 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Derby23rd
Stoke City7thxGF: 5.0 | xGA: 10.3 (-5.3)
xGF: 5.0 | xGA: 7.7 (-2.7)
17 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Norwich15th
Portsmouth11thxGF: 5.1 | xGA: 7.8 (-2.6)
xGF: 5.4 | xGA: 6.0 (-0.6)
17 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Swansea2nd
West Ham8thxGF: 7.8 | xGA: 6.7 (+1.2)
xGF: 8.7 | xGA: 6.4 (+2.3)
17 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Wrexham18th
Preston24thxGF: 6.2 | xGA: 5.1 (+1.0)
xGF: 4.0 | xGA: 9.7 (-5.7)
17 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Matchday 11 - Historical Insights
Playoff Race: Teams in 6th place at matchday 11 have averaged 19 points historically.
Relegation Battle: Teams in 22nd at matchday 11 have averaged 9 points historically.
Current Championship Table
Championship Table
Key Storylines This Week
What to Watch For
- 120 fixtures, and not one draw called: The model has produced probabilities for 120 Championship fixtures this season — ten rounds, Matchday 2 to this one, with nothing at Matchday 1 because it needs a completed match from each side — and has not once made the draw its single likeliest result. Its highest draw probability all season is 28.2%. That is a property of the arithmetic rather than an opinion about football: home and away split the remaining probability between them, so a draw can be the most common single scoreline without ever being the most likely outcome. Across this card its draw probabilities add up to 2.4, so it expects two or three — it simply cannot say which.
- The Friday opener is the tightest call of the week: Burnley against Wolves is split by 2.2 percentage points, the narrowest on the card, and it kicks off before anything else. Burnley have won one of ten and are unbeaten in their last three; Wolves have fourteen points from nine. After ten rounds the goal rates the model works from all sit between 0.93 and 1.62 a side, and rates in that range keep winning margins tight.
- Two models, and they part company on four fixtures: The probability bars are goals_logreg_v1_cal; the scorelines come from goals_poisson_v1, a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction. They are separate models and on four fixtures this week they pick opposite winners. Where that happens the post says so rather than choosing a side for them.
Championship Top Scorers
Top Scorers Heading into Gameweek 11 — on five goals, three players are level and two are shown
Top Assists — 2026/27 season
Top Assist Providers
Championship Top Assists
Head to Head
No previous meeting between Swansea and West Ham appears anywhere in our records, so there is no head-to-head to show.
Recent Form Comparison — this season
West Ham did not play in the Championship in 2025/26, so this block shows 2026/27 form for both clubs rather than last season’s.
Form Comparison - Last 10 Games
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 13 | +16 | 20 | WWWWDDWWLL |
| 2 | Swansea | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 19 | WDLWWWWLLW |
Swansea - Recent Results
West Ham - Recent Results
xG Trends — 2026/27 season
Swansea - 5-Match Rolling xG 2026/2027
Rolling 5-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
West Ham - 5-Match Rolling xG 2026/2027
Rolling 5-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Goals by Period — this season so far
Swansea - Goals by Time Period 2026/2027
West Ham - Goals by Time Period 2026/2027
Historical Position at Matchday 11
West Ham have no earlier Championship season within the years our records cover, so there is nothing to chart.
Historical Position Comparison
Swansea - Saturday 17th October 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 (now) | 2nd | 26 | +7 | - |
| 2025-26 | 16th | 13 | -1 | 11th |
| 2024-25 | 14th | 13 | +1 | 11th |
| 2023-24 | 12th | 15 | +4 | 14th |
| 2022-23 | 17th | 13 | -2 | 10th |
| 2021-22 | 20th | 11 | -5 | 15th |
| 2020-21 | 6th | 19 | +6 | 4th |
| 2019-20 | 4th | 21 | +7 | 6th |
Historical Position Comparison
West Ham - Saturday 17th October 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 (now) | 8th | 22 | +15 | - |
Player to Watch
Jarrod Bowen — West Ham
Jarrod Bowen has six goals this season for West Ham, six of the twenty-nine they have scored. Swansea have conceded seven in ten.
Radar: 2026/27 season data, 10 rounds in.
Jarrod Bowen
West Ham • M • 2026-2027 Season
BTP Verdict
The number worth reading here is the margin rather than the score: the model puts 65% on this finishing within a goal, and the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12%, 0-1 9%, 1-2 9%. The lean is to the away side by 7.6 percentage points, which is a lean and not a verdict. What it turns on is whether the division’s best goal difference holds up against the side with the most points.
The most points hosts the best goal difference
Swansea have twenty-three points, more than anyone in the division, from ten matches, and have won their last four. West Ham arrive with a goal difference of plus seventeen, the best in the division, having won 6-0 at Lincoln in the last round. The model makes the visitors 46.1% against Swansea’s 38.5%, one of four away calls this week.
Matchday 10 produced forty-five goals and seven away wins
Twelve matches, forty-five goals and seven wins for the visiting side — the home team won four. West Ham won 6-0 at Lincoln, Cardiff beat Watford 5-1 and Birmingham beat Preston 4-0. The model answers a round like that with eight home calls out of twelve, which is the point worth making about it: it reads a five-match in-division rate for each side and does not treat one loud round as a trend.
Burnley have won once in ten and are unbeaten in three
Burnley have eight points from ten matches: one win, five draws and four defeats. Both halves of that are true at once — only one win, and no defeat in their last three. They open the round on Friday against Wolves, who have fourteen points from nine, and the model cannot separate them.
Two clubs are still a match behind
Portsmouth and Wolves have played nine where everyone else has played ten, so any points comparison involving them is a game out. Southampton’s total is sixteen after the four-point deduction applied from Matchday 1; their record is worth twenty. Preston have four points from ten and Derby six, each with a single win.
Player Watchlist
Three players to keep an eye on this weekend.
- Will Lankshear (Middlesbrough) — Eight goals from Middlesbrough’s ten matches, eight of the twenty they have scored.
- Cyle Larin (Southampton) — Seven goals from Southampton’s ten matches, seven of the twenty-one they have scored.
- Jarrod Bowen (West Ham) — Six goals from West Ham’s ten matches, six of the twenty-nine they have scored.
BTP Predictions — Gameweek 11
Final Thoughts
A Friday-night opener the model cannot separate, eight home calls and four away, and a draw called nowhere — as in every one of the 120 fixtures it has produced probabilities for from Matchday 2 onwards. Swansea have the most points and West Ham the best goal difference, and they meet with the lean against the hosts. Read the margins rather than the scorelines. These are not betting tips.
Burnley vs Wolves
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Wolves, at 37.6% / 22.6% / 39.8% home, draw and away. It puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12%, 1-0 12%, 2-1 9%, none of them close to certain. The two models part company here: the bars come from the 1X2 model, while the goal rates behind those scorelines read it 46.2% / 26.0% / 27.9% home, draw and away, favouring Burnley. We publish both rather than pick between them — a fixture the two disagree about is one neither is confident in.
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Middlesbrough, at 49.9% / 17.2% / 32.9% home, draw and away. It puts 65% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12%, 1-0 10%, 2-1 9%, none of them close to certain.
Millwall vs Lincoln
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Millwall, at 53.8% / 24.2% / 22.0% home, draw and away. It puts 66% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-0 13%, 1-1 12%, 2-0 10%, none of them close to certain.
Watford vs Charlton
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Watford, at 43.7% / 20.7% / 35.6% home, draw and away. It puts 68% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12%, 0-1 11%, 1-0 10%, none of them close to certain. The two models part company here: the bars come from the 1X2 model, while the goal rates behind those scorelines read it 34.7% / 26.3% / 39.0% home, draw and away, favouring Charlton. As above, both readings are published rather than one chosen.
Birmingham vs QPR
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Birmingham, at 56.5% / 20.0% / 23.5% home, draw and away. It puts 66% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12%, 1-0 11%, 2-1 9%, none of them close to certain.
Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Sheffield Utd, at 36.1% / 20.0% / 43.9% home, draw and away. It puts 68% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13%, 1-0 10%, 0-1 10%, none of them close to certain. The two models part company here: the bars come from the 1X2 model, while the goal rates behind those scorelines read it 37.1% / 26.4% / 36.6% home, draw and away, favouring Bristol City. As above, both readings are published rather than one chosen.
Derby vs Stoke City
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Stoke City, at 36.3% / 21.6% / 42.1% home, draw and away. It puts 68% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13%, 0-1 11%, 1-0 10%, none of them close to certain.
Norwich vs Portsmouth
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Norwich, at 46.9% / 18.4% / 34.7% home, draw and away. It puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12%, 0-1 10%, 1-0 10%, none of them close to certain. The two models part company here: the bars come from the 1X2 model, while the goal rates behind those scorelines read it 36.8% / 26.0% / 37.3% home, draw and away, favouring Portsmouth. As above, both readings are published rather than one chosen.
Southampton vs Bolton
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Southampton, at 50.6% / 21.7% / 27.7% home, draw and away. It puts 64% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-0 12%, 1-1 12%, 2-1 10%, none of them close to certain.
Swansea vs West Ham
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is West Ham, at 38.5% / 15.4% / 46.1% home, draw and away. It puts 65% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12%, 0-1 9%, 1-2 9%, none of them close to certain.
West Brom vs Blackburn
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is West Brom, at 45.7% / 20.3% / 34.0% home, draw and away. It puts 69% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13%, 1-0 12%, 0-1 10%, none of them close to certain.
Wrexham vs Preston
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Wrexham, at 55.1% / 20.7% / 24.2% home, draw and away. It puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12%, 1-0 11%, 2-1 9%, none of them close to certain.
🤖 Model Notes — GW11
Two models run on every fixture. The probability bars are goals_logreg_v1_cal, the 1X2 model; the scorelines come from goals_poisson_v1, a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction. The three beside each fixture are the grid’s outright three likeliest, unfiltered — which is why a fixture’s top entry can be a draw while the bars favour a home or away win. The single score quoted for the match of the week is a different number: the likeliest cell consistent with the 1X2 call. On four fixtures this round the two models disagree about the winner outright, and that is reported rather than resolved. Both are re-run every morning, so a figure here can differ from one printed later in the week.
Model: logistic regression with player-quality features, calibrated so its percentages match observed frequencies (goals_logreg_v1_cal), trained on 3,266 Championship matches (2019/20–2024/25). Log loss 1.064 vs baseline 1.073. Full methodology here.
Check back after the weekend for our full Gameweek 11 Championship review with match reports and updated standings!
