Matchday 10 is a midweek card, six at 7.45pm and two at 8pm on Tuesday, then three at 7.45pm and one at 8pm on Wednesday. The model calls a home win in seven of the twelve and an away win in the other five. It calls the draw nowhere, for the second round running — Matchday 9 returned three of them. Its firmest call of the season so far is not a meeting of the two highest points totals: it is Cardiff, on 7 points from nine, at home to Watford, on 8, at 68.4%.
Gameweek 10 – Stats & Historical Data
All Fixtures — Head to Head, Form & Historical Positions
Championship - Matchday 10 Preview
Season 2026-27 | Powered by 6 seasons of historical data
Wolves3rd
Bolton19thxGF: 8.7 | xGA: 4.7 (+4.0)
xGF: 8.1 | xGA: 12.2 (-4.1)
13 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Cardiff17th
Watford21stxGF: 9.2 | xGA: 8.6 (+0.6)
xGF: 6.2 | xGA: 10.0 (-3.8)
13 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Burnley22nd
Charlton20thxGF: 8.2 | xGA: 6.9 (+1.3)
xGF: 6.7 | xGA: 9.0 (-2.3)
13 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Bristol City14th
Blackburn13thxGF: 8.1 | xGA: 5.4 (+2.6)
xGF: 4.8 | xGA: 10.9 (-6.0)
13 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Millwall12th
Swansea2ndxGF: 9.0 | xGA: 5.4 (+3.6)
xGF: 7.8 | xGA: 6.7 (+1.2)
13 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Wrexham18th
West Brom4thxGF: 6.2 | xGA: 5.1 (+1.0)
xGF: 10.0 | xGA: 6.8 (+3.3)
13 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Birmingham6th
Preston24thxGF: 9.2 | xGA: 6.9 (+2.4)
xGF: 4.0 | xGA: 9.7 (-5.7)
13 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Stoke City7th
Middlesbrough1stxGF: 5.0 | xGA: 7.7 (-2.7)
xGF: 12.3 | xGA: 3.6 (+8.7)
13 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Norwich15th
Southampton5thxGF: 5.1 | xGA: 7.8 (-2.6)
xGF: 8.5 | xGA: 5.6 (+3.0)
14 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
QPR9th
Derby23rdxGF: 8.1 | xGA: 5.4 (+2.7)
xGF: 5.0 | xGA: 10.3 (-5.3)
14 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Portsmouth11th
Sheffield Utd10thxGF: 5.4 | xGA: 6.0 (-0.6)
xGF: 7.6 | xGA: 6.0 (+1.6)
14 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Lincoln16th
West Ham8thxGF: 6.1 | xGA: 10.2 (-4.1)
xGF: 8.7 | xGA: 6.4 (+2.3)
14 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Matchday 10 - Historical Insights
Playoff Race: Teams in 6th place at matchday 10 have averaged 17 points historically.
Relegation Battle: Teams in 22nd at matchday 10 have averaged 8 points historically.
Current Championship Table
Championship Table
Key Storylines This Week
What to Watch For
- No draw called anywhere, for the second round running: The model’s single likeliest outcome is a home win in seven of the twelve and an away win in the other five. It lands on the draw nowhere — in the week after Matchday 9 returned three of them. That is normal rather than a contradiction: a draw is rarely any model’s single likeliest result. Its draw probabilities across the twelve add up to 2.7, so it does expect two or three — it just cannot say which fixtures. The highest is Millwall against Swansea at 28.2%.
- The widest split is between two of the division’s lowest totals: Cardiff at home to Watford is 68.4% to 11.5%, a gap of 56.9 points and the widest on the card. Cardiff are unbeaten at home and have not won away; Watford have not won away either, and have lost their last three.
- Two fixtures tie as the closest call: Stoke against Middlesbrough and Wrexham against West Brom are both 1.7 points apart. In the Wrexham fixture, and in three others, the bars and the goals grid disagree about who wins.
Championship Top Scorers
Top Scorers Heading into Gameweek 10 — on four goals, seven players are level and one is shown
Top Assists — 2026/27 season
Top Assist Providers
Championship Top Assists
Head to Head
Cardiff vs Watford
Last 8 league meetings
| Date | Home | Score | Away | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 2026-27 | Cardiff | 5 - 1 | Watford | 3.8 - 1.5 |
| 14 Jan 2025 2024-25 | Cardiff | 1 - 1 | Watford | 0.8 - 0.8 |
| 29 Dec 2024 2024-25 | Watford | 1 - 2 | Cardiff | 0.7 - 1.5 |
| 03 Feb 2024 2023-24 | Watford | 0 - 1 | Cardiff | 1.1 - 0.5 |
| 07 Oct 2023 2023-24 | Cardiff | 1 - 1 | Watford | 0.7 - 2.0 |
| 19 Apr 2023 2022-23 | Watford | 1 - 3 | Cardiff | - |
| 02 Nov 2022 2022-23 | Cardiff | 1 - 2 | Watford | - |
| 13 Mar 2021 2020-21 | Cardiff | 1 - 2 | Watford | - |
Recent Form Comparison — this season
Cardiff did not play in the Championship in 2025/26, so this block shows 2026/27 form for both clubs rather than last season’s.
Form Comparison - Last 9 Games
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 | LDLWLWDWL |
| 2 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 6 | LWLLLLWLL |
Cardiff - Recent Results
Watford - Recent Results
xG Trends — 2026/27 season
Cardiff - 5-Match Rolling xG 2026/2027
Rolling 5-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Watford - 5-Match Rolling xG 2026/2027
Rolling 5-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Goals by Period — this season so far
Cardiff - Goals by Time Period 2026/2027
Watford - Goals by Time Period 2026/2027
Historical Position at Matchday 10
Cardiff’s 2025/26 line is missing: they were outside the Championship that season.
Historical Position Comparison
Cardiff - Tuesday 13th October 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 (now) | 17th | 14 | -1 | - |
| 2024-25 | 22nd | 8 | -9 | 24th |
| 2023-24 | 8th | 16 | +2 | 12th |
| 2022-23 | 18th | 11 | -4 | 22nd |
| 2021-22 | 19th | 11 | -6 | 19th |
| 2020-21 | 13th | 13 | +2 | 8th |
| 2019-20 | 10th | 16 | +2 | 5th |
Historical Position Comparison
Watford - Tuesday 13th October 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 (now) | 21st | 11 | -11 | - |
| 2025-26 | 15th | 12 | -1 | 16th |
| 2024-25 | 8th | 16 | -3 | 14th |
| 2023-24 | 21st | 9 | -2 | 15th |
| 2022-23 | 7th | 16 | +2 | 11th |
| 2020-21 | 4th | 18 | +4 | 2nd |
Player to Watch
Amin Nabizada — Watford
Amin Nabizada has three of the seven goals Watford have scored this season, which is more than anyone else at the club, and he has them from 455 minutes across eight starts in nine appearances — he has not finished a match yet. The radar below is this season’s, nine rounds in, so it is drawn from that same short sample rather than a full campaign. The scale of what he is carrying is the other way of reading it: Watford have scored one goal in four away matches all season.
Radar: 2026/27 season data, 9 rounds in.
Amin Nabizada
Watford • F • 2026-2027 Season
BTP Verdict
The number worth reading here is the margin rather than the score: the model puts 67% on this finishing within a goal, and the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12%, 1-0 12%, 2-1 9% — none of them close to certain. A 68.4% call still leaves a third of the probability somewhere else, and the goals grid is less sure again about the same fixture, reading it 47% / 26% / 27%. Cardiff have not lost at home; Watford have not won away. One of those two gives way, or it finishes level — which is what three of Cardiff’s four home matches have done.
The lowest combined points total on the card
Cardiff against Watford is the widest split on the card, 56.9 percentage points. Between them the two clubs have fifteen points from eighteen games — Cardiff on 7, Watford on 8 — and no other fixture on the card pairs two clubs on so little: the next lowest is Birmingham against Preston on eighteen. The match-of-the-week tab has the venue split and the head-to-head that complicate it.
Two fixtures the model cannot separate
Stoke against Middlesbrough and Wrexham against West Brom are both split by 1.7 percentage points, the closest calls of the round and level with each other. Stoke have 16 points and Middlesbrough 18; Wrexham have 11 and West Brom 14. In the Wrexham fixture, and in three others on the card, the model’s bars lean one way and its goals grid leans the other, which is the clearest signal it gives that it does not know.
Swansea take the division’s best points total to Millwall
Swansea have 20 points, more than anyone, from six wins and two draws, and have lost one of nine. They go to a Millwall side on 14 who have drawn two. It is the fixture the model rates likeliest of all to finish level, at 28.2% — and the model still does not call the draw there, which the first storyline above explains. The reading worth taking from it is that this is the fixture on the card the model thinks least likely to produce a winner.
Everyone has won now, and two clubs are still a game short
Burnley’s 4-0 at Watford ended the division’s last winless record, so every one of the twenty-four has now won at least once. Wolves and Portsmouth have played eight where everyone else has played nine; their Matchday 6 meeting is not until 20 October, so any points comparison involving them is a game out. Southampton’s points tally is a deduction rather than form — their record is worth 17, the table shows 13, and the four-point difference is the May 2026 sanction applied from Matchday 1.
Player Watchlist
Three players to keep an eye on this midweek.
- Cyle Larin (Southampton) — Seven goals in nine matches for Southampton, seven of the twenty they have scored.
- Will Lankshear (Middlesbrough) — Seven goals in nine matches for Middlesbrough, seven of the seventeen they have scored.
- Jarrod Bowen (West Ham) — Five goals in nine matches for West Ham, five of the twenty-three they have scored.
BTP Predictions — Gameweek 10
Final Thoughts
A midweek round with no draw called in it, for the second week running, and a model whose firmest opinion of the season is about a game between two of its lowest points totals. Swansea, who have more points than anyone, go to Millwall — the fixture the model rates likeliest of all to finish level. These are not betting tips.
Bristol City vs Blackburn
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Blackburn, at 35.7% / 21.8% / 42.5% home, draw and away. It puts 68% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12%, 1-0 11%, 0-1 9%, none of them close to certain. The two models part company here: the bars come from the 1X2 model, while the goal rates behind those scorelines read it 41.4% / 26.1% / 32.5% home, draw and away, favouring Bristol City. We publish both rather than pick between them — a fixture the two disagree about is one neither is confident in.
Burnley vs Charlton
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Burnley, at 53.4% / 24.5% / 22.1% home, draw and away. It puts 66% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-0 13%, 1-1 12%, 2-0 9%, none of them close to certain.
Cardiff vs Watford
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Cardiff, at 68.4% / 20.1% / 11.5% home, draw and away. It puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12%, 1-0 12%, 2-1 9%, none of them close to certain. The goals model agrees on the winner but not on the margin: its rates read this one 47% / 26% / 27% home, draw and away, against the 68.4% the bars give.
Millwall vs Swansea
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Swansea, at 34.7% / 28.2% / 37.1% home, draw and away. It puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12%, 1-0 12%, 2-1 9%, none of them close to certain. The two models part company here: the bars come from the 1X2 model, while the goal rates behind those scorelines read it 45.7% / 25.9% / 28.4% home, draw and away, favouring Millwall. As above, both readings are published rather than one chosen.
Wolves vs Bolton
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Wolves, at 43.7% / 24.2% / 32.1% home, draw and away. It puts 65% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-0 12%, 1-1 12%, 2-1 9%, none of them close to certain.
Wrexham vs West Brom
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is West Brom, at 37.6% / 23.1% / 39.3% home, draw and away. It puts 70% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13%, 1-0 11%, 0-1 11%, none of them close to certain. The two models part company here: the bars come from the 1X2 model, while the goal rates behind those scorelines read it 36.9% / 27.3% / 35.8% home, draw and away, favouring Wrexham. As above, both readings are published rather than one chosen.
Birmingham vs Preston
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Birmingham, at 63.4% / 18.1% / 18.5% home, draw and away. It puts 66% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12%, 1-0 12%, 2-1 9%, none of them close to certain.
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Stoke City, at 38.0% / 25.7% / 36.3% home, draw and away. It puts 65% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-0 13%, 1-1 12%, 2-0 10%, none of them close to certain.
Norwich vs Southampton
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Southampton, at 36.2% / 20.8% / 43.0% home, draw and away. It puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12%, 1-0 10%, 0-1 9%, none of them close to certain. The two models part company here: the bars come from the 1X2 model, while the goal rates behind those scorelines read it 38.7% / 25.5% / 35.8% home, draw and away, favouring Norwich. As above, both readings are published rather than one chosen.
Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Portsmouth, at 49.0% / 21.1% / 29.9% home, draw and away. It puts 68% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13%, 1-0 11%, 0-1 10%, none of them close to certain.
QPR vs Derby
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is QPR, at 55.4% / 19.0% / 25.6% home, draw and away. It puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12%, 1-0 12%, 0-1 9%, none of them close to certain.
Lincoln vs West Ham
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is West Ham, at 22.3% / 19.1% / 58.6% home, draw and away. It puts 66% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12%, 0-1 10%, 1-2 9%, none of them close to certain.
🤖 Model Notes — GW10
Two models run on every fixture. The probability bars are goals_logreg_v1_cal, the 1X2 model; the scorelines come from goals_poisson_v1, a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction. The three beside each fixture are the grid’s outright three likeliest, unfiltered — which is why a fixture’s top entry can be a draw while the bars favour a home or away win. The single score quoted for the match of the week is a different number: the likeliest cell consistent with the 1X2 call. On four of the twelve this round the two models disagree about the winner outright — Bristol City v Blackburn, Millwall v Swansea, Wrexham v West Brom and Norwich v Southampton, where the bars lean away and the grid leans home. That disagreement is reported rather than resolved: it is the honest signal that neither reading is confident. Both models are re-run every morning, so the figures here are the ones current when this post was built and a probability printed later in the week can differ.
Model: logistic regression with player-quality features, calibrated so its percentages match observed frequencies (goals_logreg_v1_cal), trained on 3,266 Championship matches (2019/20–2024/25). Log loss 1.064 vs baseline 1.073. Full methodology here.
Check back after Wednesday’s matches for our full Gameweek 10 Championship review with match reports and updated standings!
