Championship 2025/26 — Season Simulation
Monte Carlo model, 10,000 simulated seasons | Data as of Matchday 38 | 98 fixtures remaining
Full Table Simulation
Each row shows probabilities across 10,000 simulated season completions using our Poisson + Dixon-Coles model. Results regenerate on every page load.
Results shown are from a 10,000-run server-side simulation. Click the button below to re-run live in your browser (1,000 runs).
Show server-side computed results (click to expand)
Server-side computation from Matchday 38 data.
Promotion Race
Based on 10,000 simulated completions of the 2025/26 Championship season. Top 2 go up automatically; positions 3–6 enter the playoffs.
Currently 1st with 77 points. Most likely finish: 1st place. Points range (P10–P90): 88–96.
Currently 3rd with 68 points. Most likely finish: 2nd place. Points range (P10–P90): 79–88.
Middlesbrough (46.2% auto) and Millwall (5.6% auto) are still in the mix for a top-two finish.
The playoff spots look competitive: Millwall (92.5%), Hull City (57.7%), Southampton (55.6%), Middlesbrough (53.7%) are the most likely playoff sides. Playoff win percentages: Ipswich (25.2%), Middlesbrough (22.7%), Millwall (18.1%), Southampton (12.6%).
Current Standings
Championship Table
Relegation Battle
The bottom 3 teams in the Championship are relegated at the end of the season.
Currently 24th with 12 points. Points range (P10–P90): 14–22.
Currently 23rd with 39 points. Points range (P10–P90): 44–53.
Currently 21st with 40 points. Points range (P10–P90): 47–56.
Blackburn (33.8%) and West Brom (27.4%) are also in danger — nothing is safe yet.
Current Standings
Championship Table
Model Methodology
How it works
This simulation uses a Poisson-based Dixon-Coles model — the same statistical framework used by professional sports analysts and betting markets.
Step 1 — Team Strength Parameters
For each team, we calculate four strength metrics from their most recent 15 completed matches:
- Attack (home/away) — goals or xG scored, relative to the league average
- Defence (home/away) — goals or xG conceded, relative to the league average
For the Championship, we use expected goals (xG) where available, falling back to actual goals — xG is a better predictor of future performance than raw goals.
Step 2 — Expected Goals Per Match
For each remaining fixture, we combine the home team’s attack strength, the away team’s defensive strength, and the league-wide home advantage factor to produce expected goals for both sides.
Formula: λ_home = avg_home × attack_home × defence_away
Step 3 — Dixon-Coles Correction
Raw Poisson models slightly overestimate low-scoring draws. We apply a Dixon-Coles correction (ρ = −0.13) that adjusts the probability of 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, and 1-1 scorelines. This improves calibration, particularly at the bottom of the table.
Step 4 — Playoff Simulation
Teams finishing 3rd–6th enter the playoffs. Semi-finals are over two legs (home advantage applies); the final is played at a neutral venue. Away goals do not count double — if scores are level on aggregate, the outcome is decided by a 50/50 coin flip (representing extra time/penalties).
Step 5 — 10,000 Runs
We simulate the entire remaining season 10,000 times. Each run produces a final table and playoff result. The percentages shown are simply the proportion of runs in which each outcome occurred.
Limitations
- The model does not account for injuries, suspensions, or manager changes
- Transfer window effects are not modelled
- All future matches are treated as if played at full strength
- The 15-match recency window means early-season form has less influence
Model built by BeyondThePrem.co.uk. Data from API-Football. Last computed: Matchday 38.
