Championship 2025/26 Season Simulation — BeyondThePrem

Championship 2025/26 — Season Simulation

Monte Carlo model, 10,000 simulated seasons | Data as of Matchday 38 | 98 fixtures remaining

Full Table Simulation

Each row shows probabilities across 10,000 simulated season completions using our Poisson + Dixon-Coles model. Results regenerate on every page load.

Results shown are from a 10,000-run server-side simulation. Click the button below to re-run live in your browser (1,000 runs).

Show server-side computed results (click to expand)

Club	ML Fin	Auto%	PO Place%	PO Win%	Rel%	Pts P10–P90
Coventry	1	99.4%	0.6%	0.3%	0.0%	88–96
Middlesbrough	2	46.2%	53.7%	22.7%	0.0%	79–88
Ipswich	2	48.6%	51.4%	25.2%	0.0%	79–88
Millwall	4	5.6%	92.5%	18.1%	0.0%	74–83
Hull City	5	0.1%	57.7%	4.0%	0.0%	68–77
Southampton	5	0.1%	55.6%	12.6%	0.0%	67–77
Wrexham	6	0.1%	47.7%	8.1%	0.0%	68–76
Derby	8	0.0%	18.9%	3.6%	0.0%	64–73
Watford	9	0.0%	10.0%	2.3%	0.0%	62–72
Birmingham	10	0.0%	5.9%	1.7%	0.0%	62–70
Sheffield Utd	11	0.0%	3.1%	0.8%	0.0%	60–69
Norwich	13	0.0%	2.0%	0.4%	0.0%	58–68
Swansea	14	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	57–65
Stoke City	14	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	57–66
Bristol City	16	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	56–65
QPR	16	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	56–65
Preston	17	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.7%	54–62
Charlton	18	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.9%	53–62
Leicester	20	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.2%	48–57
West Brom	21	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	27.4%	48–57
Blackburn	21	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	33.8%	48–56
Portsmouth	22	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	38.8%	47–56
Oxford United	23	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	70.5%	44–53
Sheffield Wednesday	24	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	14–22

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Server-side computation from Matchday 38 data.

Promotion Race

Based on 10,000 simulated completions of the 2025/26 Championship season. Top 2 go up automatically; positions 3–6 enter the playoffs.

Coventry — 99.4% auto promotion
Currently 1st with 77 points. Most likely finish: 1st place. Points range (P10–P90): 88–96.

Ipswich — 48.6% auto promotion
Currently 3rd with 68 points. Most likely finish: 2nd place. Points range (P10–P90): 79–88.

Auto promotion contenders
Middlesbrough (46.2% auto) and Millwall (5.6% auto) are still in the mix for a top-two finish.

Playoff picture
The playoff spots look competitive: Millwall (92.5%), Hull City (57.7%), Southampton (55.6%), Middlesbrough (53.7%) are the most likely playoff sides. Playoff win percentages: Ipswich (25.2%), Middlesbrough (22.7%), Millwall (18.1%), Southampton (12.6%).

Current Standings

Championship Table

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Coventry	42	25	10	7	84	42	+42	85
2	Ipswich	40	21	12	7	71	40	+31	75
3	Millwall	42	21	10	11	56	47	+9	73
4	Middlesbrough	42	20	12	10	62	42	+20	72
5	Southampton	41	19	12	10	70	50	+20	69
6	Hull City	42	20	8	14	64	60	+4	68
7	Wrexham	42	17	13	12	63	60	+3	64
8	Derby	42	18	9	15	61	53	+8	63
9	Norwich	42	17	7	18	55	50	+5	58
10	Bristol City	42	16	10	16	52	51	+1	58
11	QPR	42	16	10	16	58	63	-5	58
12	Watford	42	14	15	13	52	51	+1	57
13	Preston	42	14	15	13	50	53	-3	57
14	Swansea	42	16	9	17	50	54	-4	57
15	Birmingham	42	15	11	16	51	52	-1	56
16	Stoke City	42	15	10	17	49	46	+3	55
17	Sheffield Utd	42	16	6	20	59	59	0	54
18	Charlton	42	12	13	17	39	51	-12	49
19	Blackburn	42	12	12	18	38	50	-12	48
20	West Brom	42	11	13	18	42	56	-14	46
21	Portsmouth	41	11	12	18	41	57	-16	45
22	Oxford United	42	10	14	18	41	54	-13	44
23	Leicester	42	11	14	17	54	64	-10	41
24	Sheffield Wednesday	42	1	11	30	25	82	-57	-4

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Relegation Battle

The bottom 3 teams in the Championship are relegated at the end of the season.

Sheffield Wednesday — 100.0% relegation risk
Currently 24th with 12 points. Points range (P10–P90): 14–22.

Oxford United — 70.5% relegation risk
Currently 23rd with 39 points. Points range (P10–P90): 44–53.

Portsmouth — 38.8% relegation risk
Currently 21st with 40 points. Points range (P10–P90): 47–56.

Battle to survive
Blackburn (33.8%) and West Brom (27.4%) are also in danger — nothing is safe yet.

Current Standings

Championship Table

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Coventry	42	25	10	7	84	42	+42	85
2	Ipswich	40	21	12	7	71	40	+31	75
3	Millwall	42	21	10	11	56	47	+9	73
4	Middlesbrough	42	20	12	10	62	42	+20	72
5	Southampton	41	19	12	10	70	50	+20	69
6	Hull City	42	20	8	14	64	60	+4	68
7	Wrexham	42	17	13	12	63	60	+3	64
8	Derby	42	18	9	15	61	53	+8	63
9	Norwich	42	17	7	18	55	50	+5	58
10	Bristol City	42	16	10	16	52	51	+1	58
11	QPR	42	16	10	16	58	63	-5	58
12	Watford	42	14	15	13	52	51	+1	57
13	Preston	42	14	15	13	50	53	-3	57
14	Swansea	42	16	9	17	50	54	-4	57
15	Birmingham	42	15	11	16	51	52	-1	56
16	Stoke City	42	15	10	17	49	46	+3	55
17	Sheffield Utd	42	16	6	20	59	59	0	54
18	Charlton	42	12	13	17	39	51	-12	49
19	Blackburn	42	12	12	18	38	50	-12	48
20	West Brom	42	11	13	18	42	56	-14	46
21	Portsmouth	41	11	12	18	41	57	-16	45
22	Oxford United	42	10	14	18	41	54	-13	44
23	Leicester	42	11	14	17	54	64	-10	41
24	Sheffield Wednesday	42	1	11	30	25	82	-57	-4

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Model Methodology

How it works

This simulation uses a Poisson-based Dixon-Coles model — the same statistical framework used by professional sports analysts and betting markets.

Step 1 — Team Strength Parameters

For each team, we calculate four strength metrics from their most recent 15 completed matches:

Attack (home/away) — goals or xG scored, relative to the league average
Defence (home/away) — goals or xG conceded, relative to the league average

For the Championship, we use expected goals (xG) where available, falling back to actual goals — xG is a better predictor of future performance than raw goals.

Step 2 — Expected Goals Per Match

For each remaining fixture, we combine the home team’s attack strength, the away team’s defensive strength, and the league-wide home advantage factor to produce expected goals for both sides.

Formula: λ_home = avg_home × attack_home × defence_away

Step 3 — Dixon-Coles Correction

Raw Poisson models slightly overestimate low-scoring draws. We apply a Dixon-Coles correction (ρ = −0.13) that adjusts the probability of 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, and 1-1 scorelines. This improves calibration, particularly at the bottom of the table.

Step 4 — Playoff Simulation

Teams finishing 3rd–6th enter the playoffs. Semi-finals are over two legs (home advantage applies); the final is played at a neutral venue. Away goals do not count double — if scores are level on aggregate, the outcome is decided by a 50/50 coin flip (representing extra time/penalties).

Step 5 — 10,000 Runs

We simulate the entire remaining season 10,000 times. Each run produces a final table and playoff result. The percentages shown are simply the proportion of runs in which each outcome occurred.

Limitations

The model does not account for injuries, suspensions, or manager changes
Transfer window effects are not modelled
All future matches are treated as if played at full strength
The 15-match recency window means early-season form has less influence

Model built by BeyondThePrem.co.uk. Data from API-Football. Last computed: Matchday 38.

Tags: Championship 2025-26 Championship playoff odds Championship promotion odds 2026 Championship relegation battle Championship season simulation Coventry City champions data-led football Hull City Playoffs Ipswich Town promotion Middlesbrough promotion Monte Carlo football simulation Oxford United relegation Poisson model football Portsmouth relegation Sheffield Wednesday Relegated

Championship 2025/26 Season Simulation

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League One 2025/26 Season Simulation

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