League One 2025/26 — Season Simulation
Monte Carlo model, 10,000 simulated seasons | Data as of Matchday 38 | 102 fixtures remaining
Full Table Simulation
Each row shows probabilities across 10,000 simulated season completions using our Poisson + Dixon-Coles model. Results regenerate on every page load.
Results shown are from a 10,000-run server-side simulation. Click the button below to re-run live in your browser (1,000 runs).
Show server-side computed results (click to expand)
Server-side computation from Matchday 38 data.
Promotion Race
Based on 10,000 simulated completions of the 2025/26 League One season. Top 2 go up automatically; positions 3–6 enter the playoffs.
Currently 1st with 81 points. Most likely finish: 1st place. Points range (P10–P90): 94–103.
Currently 2nd with 76 points. Most likely finish: 2nd place. Points range (P10–P90): 86–95.
Bolton (1.5% auto) and Stockport County (0.3% auto) are also chasing the top two.
Bolton (97.2%), Stockport County (90.4%), Bradford (88.3%), Reading (36.1%) are the most likely playoff sides. Playoff win percentages: Bolton (34.6%), Stockport County (15.5%), Bradford (15.3%), Wycombe (10.6%).
Current Standings
League One
Updated: 01 Jun 2026, 9:50 AM
Relegation Battle
The bottom 4 teams in the League One are relegated at the end of the season.
Currently 24th with 28 points. Points range (P10–P90): 33–42.
Currently 23rd with 35 points. Points range (P10–P90): 38–46.
Currently 22nd with 36 points. Points range (P10–P90): 40–49.
Currently 21st with 41 points. Points range (P10–P90): 45–54.
Doncaster (14.6%) and Wigan (13.7%) remain in the danger zone.
Current Standings
League One
Updated: 01 Jun 2026, 9:50 AM
Model Methodology
How it works
This simulation uses a Poisson-based Dixon-Coles model — the same statistical framework used by professional sports analysts and betting markets.
Step 1 — Team Strength Parameters
For each team, we calculate four strength metrics from their most recent 15 completed matches:
- Attack (home/away) — goals or xG scored, relative to the league average
- Defence (home/away) — goals or xG conceded, relative to the league average
For League One, we use actual goals rather than xG, as xG data coverage in this division is sparse and unreliable.
Step 2 — Expected Goals Per Match
For each remaining fixture, we combine the home team’s attack strength, the away team’s defensive strength, and the league-wide home advantage factor to produce expected goals for both sides.
Formula: λ_home = avg_home × attack_home × defence_away
Step 3 — Dixon-Coles Correction
Raw Poisson models slightly overestimate low-scoring draws. We apply a Dixon-Coles correction (ρ = −0.13) that adjusts the probability of 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, and 1-1 scorelines. This improves calibration, particularly at the bottom of the table.
Step 4 — Playoff Simulation
Teams finishing 3rd–6th enter the playoffs. Semi-finals are over two legs (home advantage applies); the final is played at a neutral venue. Away goals do not count double — if scores are level on aggregate, the outcome is decided by a 50/50 coin flip (representing extra time/penalties).
Step 5 — 10,000 Runs
We simulate the entire remaining season 10,000 times. Each run produces a final table and playoff result. The percentages shown are simply the proportion of runs in which each outcome occurred.
Limitations
- The model does not account for injuries, suspensions, or manager changes
- Transfer window effects are not modelled
- All future matches are treated as if played at full strength
- The 15-match recency window means early-season form has less influence
Model built by BeyondThePrem.co.uk. Data from API-Football. Last computed: Matchday 38.
