Four games to go and the shape of the table is still hardening. Coventry arrive at Ewood Park needing a single point to make the Premier League official. Leicester go to Fratton Park needing a win just to stay in the conversation. In between, Hull and Wrexham are locked on 68 points, a point outside the play-off places, and the margin for error at the bottom has collapsed into single figures for four teams.
IMPORTANT — THIS IS NOT AN EV POST
This preview shows the ML model’s top-call probability for every fixture. The model picks the outcome with the highest probability. That is not the same thing as an EV selection.
EV selections (our Heinz / Yankee posts) are picks where the model’s probability is materially higher than the market’s implied probability, after applying minimum-EV and minimum-probability filters. A lot of the model’s top calls fail those filters. Treat everything here as data commentary, not as a betting tip.
Gameweek 43 — Full Fixture Preview
All 12 Fixtures — Head to Head, Form & Historical Positions
Championship - Matchday 43 Preview
Season 2025-26 | Powered by 6 seasons of historical data
Blackburn20th
Coventry1stxGF: 3.3 | xGA: 7.4 (-4.1)
xGF: 9.3 | xGA: 7.2 (+2.1)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Millwall3rd
QPR11thxGF: 5.8 | xGA: 10.1 (-4.4)
xGF: 7.4 | xGA: 3.8 (+3.6)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Derby8th
Oxford United23rdxGF: 7.8 | xGA: 5.3 (+2.5)
xGF: 9.1 | xGA: 5.8 (+3.3)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Portsmouth19th
Leicester21stxGF: 4.8 | xGA: 5.5 (-0.7)
xGF: 8.4 | xGA: 4.1 (+4.3)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Watford12th
Sheffield Utd17thxGF: 4.7 | xGA: 8.9 (-4.2)
xGF: 7.9 | xGA: 6.5 (+1.4)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Bristol City10th
Norwich9thxGF: 4.3 | xGA: 9.0 (-4.7)
xGF: 5.9 | xGA: 5.4 (+0.5)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Preston13th
West Brom22ndxGF: 6.9 | xGA: 6.1 (+0.7)
xGF: 8.2 | xGA: 4.1 (+4.1)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Hull City6th
Birmingham15thxGF: 6.0 | xGA: 8.0 (-1.9)
xGF: 4.2 | xGA: 6.2 (-2.1)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Sheffield Wednesday24th
Charlton18thxGF: 4.3 | xGA: 12.6 (-8.4)
xGF: 7.3 | xGA: 7.8 (-0.5)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Swansea14th
Southampton4thxGF: 7.4 | xGA: 8.7 (-1.3)
xGF: 9.5 | xGA: 4.5 (+5.0)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Wrexham7th
Stoke City16thxGF: 4.7 | xGA: 10.5 (-5.8)
xGF: 7.2 | xGA: 9.1 (-1.9)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Ipswich2nd
Middlesbrough5thxGF: 8.3 | xGA: 4.9 (+3.4)
xGF: 11.5 | xGA: 3.7 (+7.8)
17 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Matchday 43 - Historical Insights
Playoff Race: Teams in 6th place at matchday 43 have averaged 68 points historically.
Relegation Battle: Teams in 22nd at matchday 43 have averaged 44 points historically.
Hull City at Matchday 43:
- 2024-25: 20th with 45 pts → Finished 21st
- 2023-24: 7th with 68 pts → Finished 7th
- 2022-23: 16th with 53 pts → Finished 15th
- 2021-22: 20th with 47 pts → Finished 20th
- 2019-20: 22nd with 45 pts → Finished 24th
Current Championship Table
Championship Table
Championship Table
Hull City at Matchday 43 — Through The Years
Hull City Historical Comparison
Historical Position Comparison
Hull City at Matchday 43
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 (now) | 6th | 68 | +4 | - |
| 2024-25 | 20th | 45 | -10 | 21st |
| 2023-24 | 7th | 68 | +9 | 7th |
| 2022-23 | 16th | 53 | -11 | 15th |
| 2021-22 | 20th | 47 | -11 | 20th |
| 2019-20 | 22nd | 45 | -18 | 24th |
Data from 6 Championship seasons (2019–2025)
Key Storylines This Week
What to Watch For
- Coventry one point away: Friday night at Ewood Park, a draw mathematically confirms the Sky Blues’ return to the Premier League. Blackburn’s job is to make them earn it — and with the crowd bouncing for a big Friday slot, it is the kind of game where visitors stall. A quick turnaround after Southampton away could matter.
- Leicester’s last-chance saloon: Portsmouth v Leicester is the relegation fixture of the weekend. Pompey rode a wave into midweek with a 2–0 win over Ipswich and have opened a four-point buffer to the bottom three. Leicester, with four to play, sit five points off safety. A loss here — plus results elsewhere — and the margin becomes functionally unrecoverable.
- Derby apply pressure, Hull and Wrexham trade punches: Derby play first on Saturday. If they beat Oxford they move to 66 points and pile pressure on the two sides locked at 68 — both of whom play at 3pm. Any slip from Hull at home to Birmingham, or Wrexham vs Stoke, and the top-six maths gets messy.
Championship Top Scorers
Top Scorers Heading into Gameweek 43
Championship Top Scorers
Top Assists
Top Assist Providers
Championship Top Assists
Head to Head
Portsmouth vs Leicester
Last 1 league meetings
| Date | Home | Score | Away | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2025 2025-26 | Leicester | 1 - 1 | Portsmouth | 1.5 - 0.9 |
Recent Form Comparison
Form Comparison - Last 6 Games
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portsmouth | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 | LLDDWW |
| 2 | Leicester | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 | WLDDDL |
Portsmouth - Recent Results
Leicester - Recent Results
xG Trends
Portsmouth - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Leicester - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Goals by Period
Portsmouth - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Leicester - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
BTP Verdict
The model has Portsmouth as co-favourite with Leicester (46.2% / 33.2%) and the draw at 20.6%. Portsmouth under the Fratton Park lights after a midweek result is a side nobody wants to play. We edge to 1–1 — a result that would please one team far more than the other.
Hull City vs Birmingham — Saturday, 3:00pm
The Opposition: Birmingham sit 15th on 56 points — the definition of mid-table safe, with nothing tangible to play for in the final four games. That is not nothing: pressure-free visitors in a rival home crowd’s biggest afternoon of the season have been a recurring trap for promotion-chasing hosts this year.
Key Battle: Hull’s attacking third vs Birmingham’s discipline. Birmingham have conceded 52 this season — not great, not terrible. Hull score 1.52 per game at home. The question is whether Hull’s chance quality translates into a comfortable lead early, or whether they chase it late.
What We Think: With the table as it is, this is effectively a play-off six-pointer for Hull — not against Birmingham, but against Wrexham, Millwall, Southampton and Middlesbrough simultaneously. A draw keeps Hull in the scramble; a loss hands Derby a glimpse. The model gives Hull a 46.5% home win probability — the third-highest home figure of the weekend.
Head to Head
Hull City vs Birmingham
Last 5 league meetings
| Date | Home | Score | Away | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2025 2025-26 | Birmingham | 2 - 3 | Hull City | 2.9 - 1.2 |
| 05 Mar 2024 2023-24 | Hull City | 1 - 1 | Birmingham | 1.4 - 0.4 |
| 25 Oct 2023 2023-24 | Birmingham | 0 - 2 | Hull City | 0.6 - 1.3 |
| 30 Dec 2022 2022-23 | Birmingham | 0 - 1 | Hull City | - |
| 16 Oct 2022 2022-23 | Hull City | 0 - 2 | Birmingham | - |
Recent Form Comparison
Form Comparison - Last 6 Games
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 8 | WLWDDL |
| 2 | Birmingham | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 | WDLLLW |
Hull City - Recent Results
Birmingham - Recent Results
xG Trends
Hull City - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Birmingham - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Goals by Period
Hull City - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Birmingham - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Hull City Recent Form
Hull City - Recent League Form
Player to Watch
Joe Gelhardt — Hull City
Gelhardt’s season radar tells the story of a player who has grown into the Hull system. At this stage of the run-in, with the table this tight, his ability to break a congested defensive line is the one route that converts draws into wins. Birmingham will likely come to Hull prepared to sit deep.
Joe Gelhardt
Hull City • M • 2025-2026 Season
BTP Verdict
Hull’s season at Matchday 43 is a coin-flip between a top-six finish and the familiar “nearly season” it so often ends up being. Birmingham are exactly the test a good team is supposed to pass at home in April. We lean 2–1 Hull.
BTP Predictions — Gameweek 43
Final Thoughts
This is the weekend the Championship’s story for 2025/26 takes its penultimate shape. The Blackburn–Coventry result on Friday sets the mood for everything that follows — if Coventry are celebrating over the weekend, Ipswich’s Sunday with Middlesbrough becomes a dead-rubber for first place. If Blackburn spring one, the top two is live into the final week. The relegation picture is similarly sensitive: Portsmouth v Leicester will likely decide which of the two has a functional path to survival.
Best case for Hull City: win at home, Wrexham drop points against Stoke, Derby fail to beat Oxford — Hull jump into the top six outright.
Worst case: drop two home points, Wrexham win, Derby win — Hull drop to eighth, cushion gone.
Hull City Upcoming Fixtures
Next Fixtures
Hull City - Upcoming League Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Hull City | Birmingham |
| 21 Apr 2026 | Leicester | Hull City |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Charlton | Hull City |
| 02 May 2026 | Hull City | Norwich |
A reminder: top-call probability ≠ EV selection.
The bars below show the model’s probability for each outcome. The highest bar is the model’s “top call”. An EV selection goes further: it requires the model’s probability to exceed the market’s implied probability by our chosen threshold, and to clear a minimum absolute probability floor (25%). Many of the top calls below will not be EV selections — that’s fine, the two outputs answer different questions.
Whole-Season Model Scorecard — Championship 2025/26
📊 How the Model Has Done
TOP-CALL HITS
18 / 50
36% — last 5 rounds
BEST OUTCOME
55%
Home calls: 6 of 11
WEAK SPOT
31%
Away calls: 12 of 39
Hit rate by predicted outcome
Hit rate by matchday (calibrated model plus legacy mid-season runs)
Number in brackets = predictions that matchday. GW26 had only 2 predictions, so 100% is noise. GW42 was a double round (24 fixtures including rescheduled games) and the biggest signal sample we have.
What this tells us: the model is best when it backs a home team — 55% accuracy is comfortably above the 33% random-baseline. It struggles when it picks the away side, which is most of the time. It has never picked a draw as its top call this season, even though draws happen ~25% of the time. That’s a known limitation of probability-argmax models, and it is precisely why the EV process sometimes surfaces a draw at a price the market has mispriced (see our longer piece on draws).
Fixture-By-Fixture — Model Probability for GW43
Blackburn vs Coventry
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
Model picks Coventry (46.6%) with Blackburn close behind (28.1%) and draw at 25.3%. The away call makes sense on underlying quality but Blackburn are far from dead at home and the “quick turnaround” factor is not in the model’s feature set. Human view leans slightly toward a draw.
Millwall vs QPR
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
56.2% for Millwall is the weekend’s most confident home call. Millwall are 3rd, QPR are 11th with nothing to play for, The Den is the venue, and Millwall have won the last two H2Hs. The model agrees with every part of the narrative here.
Portsmouth vs Leicester
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
46.2% Portsmouth, 33.2% Leicester, 20.6% draw. The numbers capture the fact that Leicester are a more recognisable name than their table position, and that Pompey’s recent momentum is real. If Leicester do not win here, it is very hard to construct a path to safety.
Derby vs Oxford United
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
50.3% Derby — one of the cleaner home picks of the round. Derby have been excellent against bottom-half opposition this season, and Oxford’s playoff-race context is six points off safety rather than pushing upward. The model’s home bias, where it exists, shows up here.
Swansea vs Southampton
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
44.5% Southampton — the model has Saints chasing a playoff place and Swansea comfortable but unmotivated in 14th. The away call looks reasonable, but Southampton’s form has been noisy in recent weeks.
Preston vs West Brom
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
42.1% West Brom. A meaningful away call — West Brom are fighting for their Championship status (22nd, 46 points), and the model is treating this more as a form read than a stakes read.
Wrexham vs Stoke City
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
42.2% Wrexham, 39.2% Stoke — nearly a toss-up. Another fixture where the market and model roughly agree, which is exactly the kind of fixture EV filters typically drop.
Hull City vs Birmingham
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
46.5% Hull, 20.3% draw, 33.1% Birmingham. Solid home confidence without being spectacular. Birmingham’s mid-table safety means motivation is the wild card; the model does not model motivation.
Watford vs Sheffield United
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
45.8% Watford at home. Sheffield Utd have underperformed their name all season and sit 17th. A clean home call the model is confident on.
Bristol City vs Norwich
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
57.5% Bristol City — the model’s most confident call of the weekend. Norwich have been slumping; Ashton Gate form is strong. The market broadly agrees, which means even at this confidence level the EV on the home win is unlikely to clear our threshold.
Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
40.1% Charlton. Sheffield Wednesday are relegated and on 14 points after 42 matches. The model gives them 35.5% largely on home advantage — the only home-advantage signal in an otherwise lost season.
Ipswich vs Middlesbrough
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
50.3% Ipswich. By the time this kicks off on Sunday, the automatic-promotion picture may already be decided by Blackburn–Coventry and the other Saturday fixtures. If Ipswich still need results, their home form says they get one.
🤖 Model Notes — GW43
Nine of twelve top calls are home wins this week. That’s a sharp reversal from the model’s recent history (39 of its previous 50 top calls have been away wins). Why? Position-heavy fixtures with clear-favourite home sides — Millwall, Bristol City, Derby, Hull, Watford, Ipswich — skew the argmax back toward the venue. The model is not “picking more homes on purpose”; it is being fed fixtures where the home side is already the higher-rated team.
The thing to watch: if 2-3 of the model’s home calls land, the running tally ticks up sharply. If 2-3 miss, the home vs away bias story flips back the other way. One matchday never settles this debate — we track and publish, game after game.
Model: Logistic Regression (Platt-calibrated), trained on 3,266 Championship matches (2019/20–2024/25). Log loss 1.036 vs baseline 1.064. Full methodology.
Check back after the weekend for our Gameweek 43 Championship review with match reports, updated standings, and a fresh honest scorecard on how these calls landed.
