WSL closing fortnight: Arsenal’s eight-day triple-header for second place
The 2025/26 WSL title was decided on Wednesday 6 May when Arsenal’s 1-1 draw at Brighton confirmed Manchester City as champions. With the trophy settled, the closing fortnight is about three things: the runners-up spot for direct UWCL qualification, the third UWCL place behind it, and Leicester’s 23 May play-off against Charlton at The Valley — the new promotion-relegation play-off the WSL adopted for this season’s transition to a 14-team league. The spine of the run-in is Arsenal’s eight-day triple-header — Aston Villa on Saturday 9 May, Everton on Wednesday 13 May, and Liverpool on Saturday 16 May — as they chase Chelsea for second. Nine fixtures remain across the next two weeks.
What’s On It
Title — Manchester City clinched 6 May
Manchester City Women clinched the title on Wednesday 6 May after Arsenal’s draw at Brighton, ending Chelsea’s six-year hold on the trophy. Andree Jeglertz delivered Manchester City Women their first WSL title since 2016 in his debut season, becoming only the second manager in the league’s history to win it at the first attempt. “I had a feeling from the beginning that it was possible,” Jeglertz told BBC Radio 5 Live. City’s MD22 trip to West Ham is a trophy lap.
Second place — Arsenal’s eight-day triple-header
Chelsea sit second on 46 points with one game remaining (at home to Manchester United on the final day); Arsenal are third on 42 with three to play. The simple version: if Chelsea win at home to United — a 69% probability per the model — Arsenal must take nine points from nine to leapfrog into second. Any Chelsea slip-up opens additional routes (a draw drops Chelsea’s max to 47, putting Arsenal in command of the picture). The model backs Arsenal in each fixture: 69% to win at Aston Villa, 70% at home to Everton, 61% at Liverpool. “We like to be in a hunting position,” Arsenal midfielder Frida Maanum said following the 7-0 win over Leicester in late April. Tied finishes go on goal difference, which heavily favours Arsenal (+33 to Chelsea’s +23).
Play-off slot — Leicester face Charlton 23 May
Leicester have been locked in 12th place since 29 April and face a play-off against Charlton Athletic at The Valley on Saturday 23 May (12:30 BST). The WSL has no automatic relegation this season as part of the transition to a 14-team league for 2026/27 — the 12th-placed side meets the WSL 2 third-placed side in a one-off match for the final top-flight spot. Charlton lost out on automatic promotion to Birmingham City and Crystal Palace on the final day of the WSL 2 season. “We can write a different story,” Leicester manager Rick Passmoor said ahead of the run-in. Leicester’s MD22 trip to Everton on 16 May is effectively a dead rubber from their perspective — survival hangs on the play-off.
The Closing Fortnight Calendar
The Two Other Threads
Third place / UWCL. Manchester United sit fourth on 40 points and need to beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on the final day, then hope Arsenal drop points elsewhere, to push into the top three. Marc Skinner’s side have faced steady criticism this season, with questions over his future if they miss out on UWCL football. The model gives United just 19% to win at Chelsea — a loss or draw at the Bridge would lock them in fourth. Galton’s announced summer departure adds another thread to a long campaign for the Reds.
The Final Table (entering the closing fortnight)
How the WSL stands with everything still to settle outside the title.
Women's Super League
Updated: 15 May 2026, 9:45 AM
Form & the Contenders’ Shape
The WSL’s top three have been the form sides of the season. Arsenal are unbeaten in the league since October; Manchester City’s only blemishes were the 1-0 loss at Arsenal in February and the 3-2 reverse at Brighton on 25 April that opened the title door briefly. Chelsea have been more inconsistent than the table suggests but did just enough to hold second.
A note on the analytics: WSL xG coverage from our data feed is not available for the 2025/26 season — the analytical framing in this tab uses results-based shape measures (recent form, home/away splits, goal-timing patterns) rather than expected-goals series.
Arsenal v Chelsea — the two contenders side-by-side
Form Comparison - Last 6 Games
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal W | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 3 | +19 | 16 | WWWDWW |
| 2 | Chelsea W | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 | WWDWWW |
Arsenal W - Recent Results
Chelsea W - Recent Results
Manchester City’s closing form
Champions, but the run-in form has been wobbly: a Brighton defeat that briefly opened the title race, then steadied with a 1-0 home win over Liverpool to close it out.
Form Comparison - Last 6 Games
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal W | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 3 | +19 | 16 | WWWDWW |
| 2 | Manchester City W | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 13 | WDWWLW |
Manchester City W - Recent Results
Arsenal W - Recent Results
Home v away splits — the contenders
Where the closing fixtures sit matters. Arsenal’s triple-header is two away trips and a midweek home leg; Chelsea’s deciding game is at home to Manchester United.
Arsenal W
Arsenal W - Home vs Away 2025/2026
Home
27 pts from 11 games
Away
21 pts from 10 games
Chelsea W
Chelsea W - Home vs Away 2025/2026
Home
24 pts from 10 games
Away
22 pts from 11 games
When the goals come — the top three
Goal-timing distribution across the season. A pattern useful for a tight final day where late goals can flip the table on goal difference.
Arsenal W
Arsenal W - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Chelsea W
Chelsea W - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Manchester City W
Manchester City W - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Players to Watch
Three races, multiple threads — but a handful of players will tell the story of the fortnight. Arsenal’s Stina Blackstenius has been the difference-maker in big games this season, as a recent BBC profile noted. Chelsea will lean on their squad depth. Manchester City Women have already done their job. For Leicester, Shannon O’Brien is the leading scorer with just four goals — the player they need most in the play-off.
Stina Blackstenius (Arsenal W)
Stina Blackstenius - Form Chart
Average Rating: 7.20
Khadija Shaw (Manchester City W)
Khadija Shaw - Form Chart
Average Rating: 7.63
Mariona Caldentey (Arsenal W)
Mariona Caldentey - Form Chart
Average Rating: 7.71
Sandy Baltimore (Chelsea W)
Sandy Baltimore - Form Chart
Average Rating: 6.89
The Run-in, Fixture by Fixture
Nine games over a fortnight. Each one’s editorial stake in plain language.
Aston Villa W v Arsenal W
Arsenal W v Everton W
Liverpool W v Arsenal W
Chelsea W v Manchester United W
West Ham W v Manchester City W
Brighton W v Tottenham Hotspur W
Everton W v Leicester City WFC
London City Lionesses v Aston Villa W
Charlton Athletic W v Leicester City WFC
The Model’s Honest Reading
The calibrated logistic regression model (wsl_lr_v1_cal — 30 features including season-long player ratings) favours Arsenal in all three of their remaining fixtures, with the highest probability assigned to the home game against Everton (70%). The model also backs Chelsea to beat Manchester United at home, sees Manchester City as strong favourites away to West Ham, and gives Arsenal 61% on Merseyside in the final-day decider. The 23 May relegation play-off sits outside the model’s regular-season scope — Charlton don’t have WSL form for the model to consume, so no prediction is published. The probabilities align with the eye-test: Arsenal are the most likely team to leapfrog Chelsea, but the path requires perfection across eight days. WSL has no Poisson + Dixon-Coles model deployed yet — only the LR — so no scoreline grids on this post.
Anchor fixture: Aston Villa W v Arsenal W (Sat 9 May 12:00 BST)
The chart below shows the calibrated logistic-regression model’s read on the fixture: Arsenal W favoured at 69% to win away, Aston Villa W 27%, draw 4%.
Match Prediction
Why no Poisson grid for this post?
No Poisson + Dixon-Coles model is deployed for the WSL yet, so no scoreline grid or conditional-modal pick is published. The LR’s outcome lean is Arsenal W at 69%.
Track record across the season
How the LR model has performed across the full 25/26 WSL campaign:
11 correct from 20 predictions (55%)The Verdict
The fortnight hinges on Arsenal’s triple-header. Take nine points from nine and they leapfrog Chelsea into second; drop any and the Blues hold their grip. Meanwhile, Leicester’s season comes down to 90 minutes at The Valley on 23 May — a play-off that didn’t exist a year ago but now decides their place in the new 14-team WSL. The closing fortnight is about three UWCL spots and one survival shootout. Anything else is decoration.
Models: wsl_lr_v1_cal (Platt-calibrated logistic regression with player-rating features). BeyondThePrem does not provide betting advice; probabilistic reads are presented for analytical interest only.
