Ben Osborn’s stoppage-time strike gave Stockport County a 1-0 victory over Stevenage in the first leg of their League One play-off semi-final at the Lamex Stadium. The goal arrived in the sixth minute of added time after a defensive mix-up: Carl Piergianni lost possession on halfway, Benoný Breki Andrésson drove forward and slipped, and Osborn pounced to poke home from close range. Stockport take a 1-0 lead into Tuesday’s second leg at Edgeley Park; Stevenage need to score, and need to do it without conceding again.
How it unfolded
The first half was a tight, cautious affair typical of play-off football. Stevenage, who had the second-best defensive record in League One this season, looked the more threatening early on. Jordan Roberts was the home side’s most dangerous outlet, forcing a save from Corey Addai with a hooked effort in the 44th minute and creating a chance in first-half added time from a corner second-phase that ended just wide. Stockport struggled to find their cutting edge: in the 29th minute, Adama Sidibeh failed to square to a completely unmarked Louie Barry. The second half saw Stockport grow into the game, enjoying a sustained spell of pressure around the hour mark. Odin Bailey forced a strong save from Filip Marschall with a delivery from set-piece, and Piergianni made a crucial last-ditch challenge to deny Sidibeh in behind. Stevenage had a counter-attacking opportunity when Daniel Kemp broke away after Adetayo Edun was robbed on the halfway line, but the chance fizzled out. As the game appeared to be drifting to a goalless draw, the decisive moment arrived deep into added time.
Key moments
The match’s defining incident came in the 96th minute when Carl Piergianni lost possession on the halfway line. Benoný Breki Andrésson drove forward but slipped, seemingly ending the danger, before a complete defensive breakdown allowed Ben Osborn to poke home from close range. Earlier, Jordan Roberts had Stevenage’s best opportunities: a hooked shot saved by Corey Addai in the 44th minute, and a first-phase corner header that flashed wide. Adama Sidibeh was a persistent threat for Stockport but was guilty of a poor pass when Barry was free in the 29th minute. Sidibeh was booked in the 54th minute for an off-the-ball foul on Piergianni; Roberts and Piergianni himself joined him in the book either side of the hour. Bailey forced a fine save from Marschall from a set-piece in the 71st minute.
The model versus the result
The pre-match logistic regression model made Stockport a clear favourite at 49.2%, with Stevenage on 33.7% and the draw at 17.2%. In a 3-way market that 15.5-point gap is a decisive lean, not a nudge — Stockport’s underlying numbers and recent form pointed at the visitors despite Stevenage having won both league meetings this season. The 1-0 away win — late and from a defensive lapse — confirmed the model’s read against the H2H history.
Second-leg outlook
Stockport take a 1-0 aggregate lead to Edgeley Park for Tuesday’s second leg, putting them in a strong position. Stevenage will need to score at least once to force extra time, but their defensive solidity — 19 clean sheets in the league this season — suggests they are capable of keeping the tie alive. The return of home advantage for Stockport, combined with their second-half dominance in the first leg, gives them the edge, but Stevenage have shown resilience all season and cannot be discounted.
