Matchday 7 is played inside one afternoon: two at 12.30pm and ten at 3pm on Saturday. Matchday 6 produced thirty-one goals, split six home wins, four draws and two away wins, and it left five clubs unbeaten after six — four of whom have drawn four of the six. Barnet and Bristol Rovers have the most points, twelve each, and could hardly have got there more differently: three wins and three draws against four wins and two defeats. The model leans home in eleven of the twelve and away in one, and eight of its twelve calls are inside ten percentage points.
Gameweek 7 – Stats & Historical Data
All Fixtures — Head to Head, Form & Historical Positions
League Two - Matchday 7 Preview
Season 2026-27 | Powered by 6 seasons of historical data
Rochdale19th
Oldham21stxGF: 4.7 | xGA: 11.0 (-6.3)
xGF: 7.5 | xGA: 7.1 (+0.4)
19 Sep 2026 - 2026-27
Walsall3rd
Port Vale18thxGF: 8.9 | xGA: 10.2 (-1.3)
xGF: 9.0 | xGA: 4.6 (+4.4)
19 Sep 2026 - 2026-27
Northampton20th
Rotherham22ndxGF: 5.5 | xGA: 8.2 (-2.8)
xGF: 5.6 | xGA: 8.8 (-3.2)
19 Sep 2026 - 2026-27
Chesterfield10th
York7thxGF: 7.3 | xGA: 5.1 (+2.2)
xGF: 5.3 | xGA: 7.3 (-2.0)
19 Sep 2026 - 2026-27
Gillingham8th
Bristol Rovers17thxGF: 6.5 | xGA: 8.5 (-2.0)
xGF: 6.7 | xGA: 8.4 (-1.7)
19 Sep 2026 - 2026-27
Accrington ST9th
Newport County14thxGF: 6.1 | xGA: 3.6 (+2.5)
xGF: 7.2 | xGA: 6.1 (+1.2)
19 Sep 2026 - 2026-27
Colchester23rd
Cheltenham5thxGF: 6.4 | xGA: 7.1 (-0.7)
xGF: 5.2 | xGA: 7.9 (-2.7)
19 Sep 2026 - 2026-27
Crewe4th
Shrewsbury15thxGF: 4.9 | xGA: 6.0 (-1.1)
xGF: 9.4 | xGA: 6.6 (+2.8)
19 Sep 2026 - 2026-27
Exeter City12th
Tranmere11thxGF: 5.6 | xGA: 5.7 (0.0)
xGF: 6.2 | xGA: 5.9 (+0.3)
19 Sep 2026 - 2026-27
Grimsby6th
Crawley Town24thxGF: 11.7 | xGA: 8.3 (+3.4)
xGF: 6.9 | xGA: 7.3 (-0.3)
19 Sep 2026 - 2026-27
Barnet2nd
Fleetwood Town16thxGF: 9.3 | xGA: 6.5 (+2.8)
xGF: 8.9 | xGA: 5.4 (+3.5)
19 Sep 2026 - 2026-27
Salford City1st
Swindon Town13thxGF: 6.8 | xGA: 5.2 (+1.5)
xGF: 7.0 | xGA: 8.9 (-1.9)
19 Sep 2026 - 2026-27
Matchday 7 - Historical Insights
Playoff Race: Teams in 6th place at matchday 7 have averaged 12 points historically.
Relegation Battle: Teams in 22nd at matchday 7 have averaged 4 points historically.
Current League Two Table
League Two Table
League Two
Updated: 03 Nov 2026, 3:44 PM
Key Storylines This Week
What to Watch For
- Two matches at 12.30pm, and the other ten at 3pm: Every fixture is played on the Saturday, so the round begins and ends inside one afternoon. Nothing is carried over from Matchday 6, and every club has played six.
- Thirty-one goals, and six of the twelve won by the home side: Matchday 6 finished six home wins, four draws and two away wins. York 4-0 Swindon was the widest result; Rotherham 3-3 Salford had the most goals; Cheltenham’s 3-1 at Crawley and Chesterfield’s 2-1 at Oldham were the only away wins. Our match of the week went to the home side: Grimsby 2-0 Bristol Rovers, Bristol Rovers’ first defeat since the opening day.
- One model, not two — and the scorelines come from its grid: League Two has no separate result model — one was trained and not deployed, and Model Notes explains why. The probability bars and the scorelines both come from leaguetwo_poisson_v1, summed from one grid, so they cannot contradict each other. The model leans to the home side in eleven of the twelve and to the away side in one. In none of the twelve is the draw the most likely outcome — you can read that off the bars beside each fixture, and the likeliest score consistent with each call is a one-goal win in every case. After six rounds the goal rates it works from all sit between 0.92 and 1.51 a side, and rates in that range keep winning margins tight. Whether that spreads out depends on how far the goal rates move as the season goes on.
League Two Top Scorers
Top Scorers Heading into Gameweek 7
Top Assists — 2025/26 season
Last season’s assist leaders, shown for context. The club against each name is the one they played for in 2025/26; some will have moved over the summer.
Top Assist Providers
League Two Top Assists
Head to Head
Barnet vs Fleetwood Town
Last 3 league meetings
| Date | Home | Score | Away | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 2026-27 | Barnet | 3 - 1 | Fleetwood Town | 3.8 - 2.1 |
| 06 Apr 2026 2025-26 | Fleetwood Town | 2 - 5 | Barnet | 1.5 - 1.8 |
| 02 Aug 2025 2025-26 | Barnet | 0 - 2 | Fleetwood Town | 1.2 - 1.7 |
Recent Form Comparison — end of 2025/26
Form Comparison - Last 6 Games
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 16 | DWWWWW |
| 2 | Fleetwood Town | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 | LLWDDD |
Barnet - Recent Results
Fleetwood Town - Recent Results
There is no xG Trends chart for League Two. The data provider publishes expected goals for only a minority of this division’s fixtures, so a rolling average would be drawn from too few matches to mean anything. It is omitted deliberately, not missing.
Goals by Period — 2025/26 season
Barnet - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Fleetwood Town - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Historical Position at Matchday 7
Historical Position Comparison
Barnet - Saturday 19th September 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 (now) | 2nd | 26 | +10 | - |
| 2025-26 | 18th | 7 | -4 | 8th |
Historical Position Comparison
Fleetwood Town - Saturday 19th September 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 (now) | 16th | 17 | +0 | - |
| 2025-26 | 11th | 11 | +0 | 15th |
| 2024-25 | 10th | 10 | +1 | 14th |
Player to Watch
Charlie Lakin — Barnet
Charlie Lakin has five goals in six matches for Barnet, more than anyone at either club, and five of the fourteen Barnet have scored. He scored one in this division for Walsall across the whole of last season, which is what the radar below is drawn from — so the radar shows a different player from the one scoring now. Fleetwood have conceded four in six.
Radar: 2025/26 season data.
Charlie Lakin
Walsall • M • 2025-2026 Season
BTP Verdict
The number worth reading here is the margin rather than the score: the model puts 67% on this finishing within a goal, and the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13%, 1-0 10%, 2-1 9% — none of them close to certain. Fleetwood have drawn four of six and conceded four; Barnet have scored fourteen. One of those two facts gives way on Saturday, or it finishes level, which is what four of Fleetwood’s six have done.
Five unbeaten, and four of them keep drawing
Barnet, Crewe, Fleetwood Town, Grimsby and Walsall have not lost in six. Crewe, Fleetwood Town, Grimsby and Walsall have each won two and drawn four, which is why they have ten points rather than twelve; Barnet have won three and drawn three for twelve. Nobody in the division has drawn more than four. Fleetwood, Walsall and Crewe have conceded four each, as few as anyone. The other club on twelve points is Bristol Rovers, who have not drawn at all — four wins, more than anyone, and two defeats, the first at York on the opening day and the second, after four wins in a row, 2-0 at Grimsby last week in our match of the week. Bristol Rovers and Shrewsbury are the only two clubs yet to draw a match.
Bristol Rovers at Gillingham: the model’s second-closest call
Gillingham have won their last two, 4-1 at Rochdale and 2-0 against Tranmere, after drawing three in a row, and host Bristol Rovers at 3pm. The model makes it 37.6% to 35.6%, a gap of 2.0 points — the second-closest call of the round. Bristol Rovers manager Steve Evans, speaking to the club’s own website on 17 September, was blunt about the Grimsby defeat: “We had a crisis meeting on Monday, and every time we lose a game, we’ll have a crisis meeting, as we did after York, because we shouldn’t be losing games as we did in that manner.” Bristol Rovers have scored twelve in six, from seven different scorers, none with more than two; Gillingham have conceded six.
Rochdale v Oldham: the one away lean, and the closest call
The model leans to the home side in eleven fixtures and to the visitors in one, and that one is the round’s closest call: Oldham at Rochdale, 36.2% to 35.5%, 0.7 percentage points apart, at 12.30pm. Rochdale have four points from a win, a draw and four defeats — as few as anyone, level with Crawley — and drew 0-0 at Walsall last week; Oldham have won two, drawn one and lost three, the last of them 1-2 at home to Chesterfield. That is the shape of the whole card: eight of the twelve calls are inside ten percentage points, and only Crewe v Shrewsbury and Walsall v Port Vale are split by more than twenty. No draw is the tallest bar anywhere. That is how a goals model behaves rather than a view about these fixtures: the highest draw figure on the card is 28.3%, and each win sits above it even where the sides are level. This season has drawn more than that so far — twenty-six of seventy-two, 36% — so the draw bar under a close fixture is worth more attention than its height suggests.
Cheltenham without their manager; Swindon after a four-goal defeat
The BBC reported on 17 September that Steve Cotterill has been given a three-match touchline ban following his red card at the end of the 2-2 with Grimsby, and that he “will now miss Cheltenham’s League Two games away at Colchester on Saturday and at home to Chesterfield on 26 September, as well as the EFL Trophy match at home to Exeter on 22 September”. Cheltenham have lost once in six and won 3-1 at Crawley last week; Charlie McCann’s six goals share the division’s lead with York’s Alex Newby, and the model makes Colchester 40.0% to Cheltenham’s 33.0%. Swindon go to Salford after losing 4-0 at York, the widest result of the round; Aaron Drinan has five already, against twenty-two in this division for Swindon across the whole of last season, and the model gives Salford 38.2% to Swindon’s 33.6%. We hold expected goals for none of Matchday 6’s twelve matches, for four of Matchday 5’s, and for twelve of Matchday 4’s; nothing on this page compares any of them on it.
Player Watchlist
Three players from three different clubs to keep an eye on this weekend.
- Alex Newby (York) — Six goals in six matches for York, six of the thirteen they have scored.
- Charlie McCann (Cheltenham) — Six goals in six matches for Cheltenham, six of the thirteen they have scored.
- Aaron Drinan (Swindon Town) — Five goals in six matches for Swindon Town, five of the eight they have scored.
BTP Predictions — Gameweek 7
Final Thoughts
Twelve matches in one afternoon, five unbeaten records on the line, and a model that leans home almost everywhere and firmly almost nowhere. The match of the week is Barnet v Fleetwood Town, two of the five, split by 9.5 percentage points; the closest call is at Rochdale, and the two clubs on twelve points are both playing sides that have conceded six or fewer.
Rochdale vs Oldham
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Oldham, at 35.5% / 28.3% / 36.2% home, draw and away. It puts 68% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13%, 0-1 10%, 1-0 10%, none of them close to certain.
Walsall vs Port Vale
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Walsall, at 49.7% / 27.1% / 23.2% home, draw and away. It puts 66% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13%, 1-0 12%, 2-0 10%, none of them close to certain.
Accrington Stanley vs Newport County
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Accrington Stanley, at 41.6% / 26.4% / 32.0% home, draw and away. It puts 65% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13%, 2-1 9%, 1-0 9%, none of them close to certain.
Barnet vs Fleetwood Town
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Barnet, at 41.0% / 27.5% / 31.5% home, draw and away. It puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13%, 1-0 10%, 2-1 9%, none of them close to certain.
Chesterfield vs York
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Chesterfield, at 40.5% / 27.2% / 32.3% home, draw and away. It puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13%, 1-0 9%, 2-1 9%, none of them close to certain.
Colchester vs Cheltenham
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Colchester, at 40.0% / 27.0% / 33.0% home, draw and away. It puts 66% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13%, 1-0 9%, 2-1 9%, none of them close to certain.
Crewe vs Shrewsbury
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Crewe, at 49.7% / 27.5% / 22.8% home, draw and away. It puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13%, 1-0 13%, 2-0 10%, none of them close to certain.
Exeter City vs Tranmere
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Exeter City, at 40.2% / 27.7% / 32.1% home, draw and away. It puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13%, 1-0 10%, 2-1 9%, none of them close to certain.
Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Gillingham, at 37.6% / 26.8% / 35.6% home, draw and away. It puts 66% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13%, 2-1 8%, 1-0 8%, none of them close to certain.
Grimsby vs Crawley Town
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Grimsby, at 45.6% / 27.4% / 27.0% home, draw and away. It puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13%, 1-0 11%, 2-1 9%, none of them close to certain.
Northampton vs Rotherham
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Northampton, at 44.7% / 27.9% / 27.4% home, draw and away. It puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13%, 1-0 11%, 0-0 9%, none of them close to certain.
Salford City vs Swindon Town
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Salford City, at 38.2% / 28.2% / 33.6% home, draw and away. It puts 68% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-1 13%, 1-0 10%, 0-1 9%, none of them close to certain.
🤖 Model Notes — GW7
League Two has one model, not two. The probability bars and the scorelines under each fixture both come from the same Poisson goals model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction (leaguetwo_poisson_v1): the grid of plausible scores is summed one way to give home, draw and away, and read another way to give the likeliest exact scores. They therefore cannot contradict each other.
A separate result model was trained for this division and was not deployed. Measured against simply predicting how often home wins, draws and away wins occur, it was no better — so publishing it would have added a second number without adding any information. The honest League Two output is often close to a coin-flip, and the bars are drawn to show that rather than hide it.
What the table shows for each fixture is the margin — how likely the match is to finish within a goal — and then the three likeliest exact scores, taken straight from the grid. A single pick appears in only one place, the match of the week, where it is the likeliest exact score consistent with the call the bars make. That is why 1-1 can top a fixture’s list while the match-of-the-week pick is a one-goal win: draw probability concentrates into two or three scorelines while win probability spreads across many, so a draw can be the single likeliest score without being the likeliest outcome.
The model estimates a goal rate for each side from their last five matches in this division, reaching back into last season where a club has them. Where a club has played fewer than five, the missing games are filled with last season’s divisional average rather than left blank. We say so beneath a fixture when a side is leaning on that filler for three or more of its five, and publish no scoreline at all where both sides lean on it for all five. Every side playing this week has a full five matches in this division behind it, so no filler is used anywhere and no fixture carries the note.
Model: Poisson + Dixon-Coles goals model (leaguetwo_poisson_v1, deployed September 2026), trained across six League Two seasons (2019/20–2024/25). Both the probabilities and the scorelines come from its grid. A dedicated result model was trained for this division and rejected as no better than the base rates.
Check back after the weekend for our full Gameweek 7 League Two review with match reports and updated standings!
