Newport County 4–1 Chesterfield

🏟️ Rodney Parade

Newport County produced a first-half rush at Rodney Parade, scoring through Cameron Norman (14), Thomas Davies (18), Harrison Biggins (29) and Yahya Bamba (45+2) to lead 4-0 before Chesterfield’s Liam Mandeville replied after the break. The xG picture was far narrower—1.23 to 1.41 in Chesterfield’s favour—but Newport’s finishing turned half-chances into a decisive lead. Hayden Mullins praised an attacking first half in which his side were hard to tie down. The result lifts Newport to 18 points from 14 games, while Chesterfield stay on 19.

⚽ Goals: Cameron Norman (14′), Thomas Davies (18′), Harrison Biggins (29′), Yahya Bamba (45+2′), Liam Mandeville (58′)

Key Moment: Newport’s second goal on 18 minutes, Davies scoring four minutes after the opener, set the tone for a four-goal first half.

What It Means: Newport move to 18 points and sit within two of York’s 20; Chesterfield remain on 19 points after a heavy away defeat.

Port Vale 4–2 Rochdale

🏟️ Vale Park

Port Vale’s 3.16 xG was the gameweek’s most commanding attacking output, and Rochdale scored twice late on. Onel Hernández scored after two minutes, George Byers converted an 11th-minute penalty and Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel made it 3-0 inside 22 minutes. Ian Henderson pulled one back after 82, Keyrol Figueroa restored the three-goal cushion on 86, and Charlie Tasker’s 90+4 strike made the final score less comfortable than Vale’s first half suggested. The win ends Vale’s two-game winless run and moves them to 15 points.

⚽ Goals: Onel Hernández (2′), George Byers (11′ pen), Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel (22′), Ian Henderson (82′), Keyrol Figueroa (86′), Charlie Tasker (90+4′)

Key Moment: Lawrence-Gabriel’s 22nd-minute finish made it 3-0 and provided the cushion Rochdale’s late rally could not erase.

What It Means: Port Vale move to 15 points with a first win in three league outings; Rochdale’s winless run continues after a second straight defeat.

Crewe 1–1 Barnet

🏟️ Alexandra Stadium

Barnet’s Tom Knowles put the visitors ahead after 34 minutes at the Alexandra Stadium, but Crewe levelled five minutes from time when Barnet defender Zac Williams turned the ball into his own net. The draw was a fair reflection of a tight game in which Crewe edged the xG 0.86 to 0.51 but could not add to Williams’ own goal. Barnet remain unbeaten in three and move to 26 points from 13 games, while Crewe are now three league games without a win.

⚽ Goals: Tom Knowles (34′), Zac Williams (85′ og)

Key Moment: Williams’ own goal five minutes from time rescued a point for Crewe after Knowles’ opener had looked like standing.

What It Means: Barnet move to 26 points and Crewe sit on 22 after a low-chance draw.

Shrewsbury 1–2 Gillingham

🏟️ The Croud Meadow

Shrewsbury Town fell to a late 2-1 home defeat against former boss Gareth Ainsworth’s Gillingham. Harry Waldock scored after three minutes, George Lloyd levelled from the penalty spot on 59, but Andy Smith struck the 80th-minute winner after the ball came back off the crossbar with Will Brook stranded. Shrewsbury finished with 2.07 xG to Gillingham’s 1.87 and were punished for spurned chances. The win gives Gillingham a first win in four and moves them to 20 points, while Shrewsbury remain on 18.

⚽ Goals: Harry Waldock (3′), George Lloyd (59′ pen), Andy Smith (80′)

Key Moment: Andy Smith’s 80th-minute finish, after the initial effort came back off the crossbar, gave Gillingham the points.

What It Means: Shrewsbury remain on 18 points after a second defeat in nine league games; Gillingham climb to 20 with a first win in three.

Colchester 1–3 Walsall

Colchester United’s winless league run reached ten games with a 3-1 home defeat to Walsall that their 2.73 xG says they should have got more from. Declan Skura scored after three minutes and Jack Payne levelled from the spot on 35, but Aaron Pressley’s 79th-minute header and Courtney Clarke’s stoppage-time finish won it for Walsall. Colchester had a Sean Raggett header disallowed for offside and were left to rue missed chances. Walsall head coach Lee Grant accepted his side were not at their best in the first half but praised their strong second-half mentality.

⚽ Goals: Declan Skura (3′), Jack Payne (35′ pen), Aaron Pressley (79′), Courtney Clarke (90+6′)

Key Moment: Pressley’s 79th-minute header put Walsall ahead.

What It Means: Colchester have 12 points from 13 games and a ten-match winless league run, while Walsall move to 22 points with a strong away response.

Oldham 0–1 Crawley Town

🏟️ Boundary Park

Crawley Town recorded only a second league victory of the season with Danilo Orsi-Dadomo’s 52nd-minute winner at Boundary Park. Oldham’s afternoon unravelled with two first-half red cards, leaving them with nine men for nearly an hour, and Crawley’s 1.86 xG to Oldham’s 1.02 reflected numerical superiority without producing a second goal. The win takes Crawley to nine points from 12 games, while Oldham stay on 12 after a third league game without victory.

⚽ Goals: Danilo Orsi-Dadomo (52′)

Key Moment: Orsi-Dadomo’s goal seven minutes after the restart was the breakthrough Crawley’s numerical advantage demanded.

What It Means: Crawley climb to nine points; Oldham remain on 12 without a win in three.

Salford City 2–1 Exeter City

🏟️ Peninsula Stadium

Salford City fell behind to Sonny Cox’s 34th-minute opener at the Peninsula Stadium, but Luke Garbutt levelled after 66 and Will Aimson won it from 25 yards with two minutes to play. Exeter City midfielder Taylor Perry said his side left disappointed, believing the points were there for them, and Exeter had chances to extend their lead in the first half. Salford’s eighth successive league win moves them to 31 points, five clear of Barnet’s 26; the xG was narrow at 1.20 to 0.86 in Salford’s favour.

⚽ Goals: Sonny Cox (34′), Luke Garbutt (66′), Will Aimson (88′)

Key Moment: Aimson’s 88th-minute strike from 25 yards against his former club gave Salford an eighth straight win.

What It Means: Salford have 31 points and an eight-match winning run; Exeter’s first league defeat in five leaves them on 19.

Accrington ST 1–1 Northampton

🏟️ The Wham Stadium

Accrington Stanley took a fifth-minute lead through Charlie Warren at the Wham Stadium, but Elliott List’s stoppage-time equaliser earned the visitors a point. Accrington finished with 1.16 xG to Northampton’s 0.64. The draw extends Accrington Stanley’s unbeaten run to eight league games and moves them to 19 points; Northampton move to 14 from 12.

⚽ Goals: Charlie Warren (5′), Elliott List (90+2′)

Key Moment: Elliott List’s 90+2 equaliser punished Accrington’s failure to add a second goal.

What It Means: Accrington Stanley are now eight league games unbeaten; Northampton move to 14 points after a useful away point.

Fleetwood Town 3–1 Bristol Rovers

🏟️ Highbury Stadium

Fleetwood Town made their 2.29 xG count in a 3-1 win over Bristol Rovers at Highbury Stadium. Aaron Loupalo-Bi opened the scoring on 37, Rhys Bennett’s 59th-minute finish proved decisive, and substitute J. Robertson added a third on 90 after Reiss-Alexander Russell-Denny had pulled one back for Rovers. Bristol Rovers generated just 0.26 xG, the gameweek’s lowest attacking output, and their winless league run is now six games. Fleetwood move to 17 points with a first win in three.

⚽ Goals: Aaron Loupalo-Bi (37′), Rhys Bennett (59′), Reiss-Alexander Russell-Denny (84′), J. Robertson (90′)

Key Moment: Bennett’s goal just before the hour doubled Fleetwood’s lead and they never looked like relinquishing it.

What It Means: Fleetwood’s third home win of the season moves them to 17 points; Bristol Rovers stay on 16 and winless in six.

Tranmere 3–1 Cheltenham

🏟️ Prenton Park

Tranmere recovered from Charlie McCann’s first-minute opener for Cheltenham to win 3-1 at Prenton Park, with Dylan Jones scoring twice in 16 first-half minutes and Charlie Whitaker adding a third in first-half stoppage time. Jones levelled on 23 and put Tranmere ahead on 39, his second goal the afternoon’s decisive moment. Cheltenham’s 0.58 xG offered little after the early shock, while Tranmere’s 1.08 xG was an efficient return. Tranmere move to 19 points and extend their unbeaten run to three; Cheltenham stay on 21.

⚽ Goals: Charlie McCann (1′), Dylan Jones (23′), Dylan Jones (39′), Charlie Whitaker (45+3′)

Key Moment: Dylan Jones’ second goal on 39 minutes turned a frantic opening into a lead Tranmere would not surrender.

What It Means: Tranmere are unbeaten in three and up to 19 points; Cheltenham’s first defeat in three leaves them on 21.

Swindon Town 2–1 Rotherham

🏟️ County Ground

Swindon Town profited from three Rotherham United red cards to win 2-1 at the County Ground. Jili Buyabu was sent off on four minutes, Jack Thomson’s deflected drive gave Swindon the lead in first-half stoppage time, and Joseph Hungbo’s 81st-minute free kick doubled the advantage after two more dismissals on 79 and 80 had left Rotherham with eight. Denzel Hall pulled one back on 87, and Rotherham’s 0.42 xG told the story of a side a man or more short for almost the whole afternoon. Swindon climb to 19 points; Rotherham’s winless run stretches to seven league games.

⚽ Goals: Jack Thomson (45+3′), Joseph Hungbo (81′), Denzel Hall (87′)

Key Moment: Buyabu’s fourth-minute red card left Rotherham chasing the game and shaped all that followed, the ten men holding out until first-half stoppage time.

What It Means: Swindon move to 19 points and are unbeaten in four; Rotherham have 12 points and seven league games without a win.

⭐ Match of the Round: Grimsby 5–2 York

🏟️ Blundell Park

Grimsby Town turned a level first half into a second-half rout at Blundell Park, beating York City 5-2 to make it seven points from nine since a four-match losing league run. Andy Cook put Grimsby ahead on 13 minutes, Alex Hunt and Jack Hunt replied for York with goals on 18 and 28, and Iwan Morgan levelled on 31 to send the sides in at 2-2. After the interval, Cameron McJannett restored the lead on 75, Josh Andrews scored his first Grimsby goal on 78 and Géza Dávid Turi completed the scoring on 86. Grimsby’s 2.88 xG against York’s 0.39 underlined how far David Artell’s side pulled clear after the interval.

⚽ Goals: Andy Cook (13′), Alex Hunt (18′), Jack Hunt (28′), Iwan Morgan (31′), Cameron McJannett (75′), Josh Andrews (78′), Géza Dávid Turi (86′)

Key Moment: The 11 minutes from the 75th, when McJannett, Andrews and Turi scored, turned a 2-2 game into a 5-2 win.

What It Means: Grimsby move to 20 points and a second straight win; York’s second consecutive league defeat leaves them on 20 points.

⭐ Player of the Week: Dylan Jones (Tranmere)

Dylan Jones scored twice in the first half at Prenton Park as Tranmere turned a first-minute deficit into a 3-1 win over Cheltenham. His 23rd-minute equaliser levelled it, and his 39th-minute strike put Tranmere ahead for the first time.

🎯 Decisive Goal of the Week

Will Aimson (Salford City) vs Exeter City — The former Exeter captain scored an 88th-minute winner from 25 yards as Salford City came from behind to beat Exeter City 2-1 and make it eight straight league wins.

💪 Performance of the Week

Newport County‘s 4-1 against Chesterfield — Newport scored four first-half goals from 1.23 xG while Chesterfield finished with 1.41 xG and only a Liam Mandeville consolation, a finishing gulf that outweighed the underlying numbers.

In the Spotlight

Danny Cowley (Colchester) — Colchester’s 3-1 home defeat to Walsall extended their winless league run to ten games and left them with 12 points from 13 matches. The home side produced 2.73 xG and had a Sean Raggett header disallowed, but the result leaves them with work to do; their next league fixture offers a chance to end the run.

⚽ League Two Top Scorers

👀 Key Fixtures Next Week

• Exeter City vs Cheltenham (Sat 14 Nov 12:30)
• Colchester vs Gillingham (Sat 14 Nov 15:00)
• Rochdale vs York (Sat 14 Nov 15:00)
• Crewe vs Newport County (Sat 14 Nov 15:00)
• Walsall vs Barnet (Sat 14 Nov 15:00)
• Salford City vs Northampton (Sat 14 Nov 15:00)
• Port Vale vs Accrington ST (Sat 14 Nov 15:00)
• Shrewsbury vs Oldham (Sat 14 Nov 15:00)

🎯 Projected Final Points

Rows are ordered by projected total, not by current position, because the clubs have played different numbers of matches. ML xPts = sum of expected points from remaining fixtures per the BTP model (3·P(win) + 1·P(draw)). Projected total indicative only.

🎯 Projected Final Points

Rows are ordered by projected total, not by current position, because the clubs have played different numbers of matches. ML xPts = sum of expected points from remaining fixtures per the BTP model (3·P(win) + 1·P(draw)). Projected total indicative only.

🔮 Predictions Review

Correct Results: 7/12

Model Record: 47/103 (45.6%) this season (since 2026-09-07)

Best Call: The model’s best call was Swindon Town at 49.0 per cent confidence, and a 2-1 home win over Rotherham with Joseph Hungbo’s 81st-minute strike made it a hit.

Worst Call: The model’s highest-confidence miss was Accrington Stanley at 48.9 per cent, but Elliott List’s stoppage-time equaliser earned Northampton a 1-1 draw at the Wham Stadium.

The model went with the home side in all 12 fixtures and hit seven; it missed the away wins for Crawley, Walsall and Gillingham and two draws, underlining a home-heavy lean across the whole card.

📚 Five Things We Learned

1. Salford’s eighth straight win came from 1.20 xG to Exeter’s 0.86, a tighter contest than the run might imply.
2. Grimsby’s second-half scoring against York followed a similar pattern to their win at Gillingham, where they also scored three times after the interval.
3. Newport County can live with a low xG share and still win heavily: their 4-1 win over Chesterfield came from 1.23 xG to the visitors’ 1.41, a finishing gap as much as a tactical one.
4. Red cards shaped two results on Saturday: Crawley won 1-0 away to nine-man Oldham, and Swindon beat a Rotherham side down to eight 2-1 at the County Ground.
5. Colchester’s 2.73 xG in a 3-1 home defeat hints at a fine-margins problem: they have now gone 10 league games without a win despite creating enough to win on Saturday.