League One 2025/26 Season Simulation — BeyondThePrem

League One 2025/26 — Season Simulation

Monte Carlo model, 10,000 simulated seasons | Data as of Matchday 38 | 102 fixtures remaining

Full Table Simulation

Each row shows probabilities across 10,000 simulated season completions using our Poisson + Dixon-Coles model. Results regenerate on every page load.

Results shown are from a 10,000-run server-side simulation. Click the button below to re-run live in your browser (1,000 runs).

Show server-side computed results (click to expand)

Club	ML Fin	Auto%	PO Place%	PO Win%	Rel%	Pts P10–P90
Lincoln	1	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	94–103
Cardiff	2	98.2%	1.8%	0.7%	0.0%	86–95
Bolton	3	1.5%	97.2%	34.6%	0.0%	75–84
Stockport County	4	0.3%	90.4%	15.5%	0.0%	72–82
Bradford	5	0.0%	88.3%	15.3%	0.0%	72–80
Reading	6	0.0%	36.1%	10.1%	0.0%	66–75
Wycombe	7	0.0%	29.6%	10.6%	0.0%	66–74
Plymouth	8	0.0%	18.7%	5.1%	0.0%	64–73
Huddersfield	10	0.0%	14.3%	3.6%	0.0%	63–72
Stevenage	8	0.0%	18.6%	3.4%	0.0%	64–74
Luton	11	0.0%	3.0%	0.7%	0.0%	61–70
Barnsley	13	0.0%	1.4%	0.2%	0.0%	58–68
Peterborough	12	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	58–67
AFC Wimbledon	14	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	55–65
Mansfield Town	15	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	53–63
Leyton Orient	16	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.8%	52–62
Burton Albion	19	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	12.8%	48–57
Exeter City	18	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	13.1%	48–58
Doncaster	19	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	14.6%	49–58
Wigan	19	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	13.7%	48–57
Blackpool	21	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	53.2%	45–54
Rotherham	22	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	92.2%	40–49
Northampton	23	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	98.1%	38–46
Port Vale	24	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	99.9%	33–42

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Server-side computation from Matchday 38 data.

Promotion Race

Based on 10,000 simulated completions of the 2025/26 League One season. Top 2 go up automatically; positions 3–6 enter the playoffs.

Lincoln — 100.0% auto promotion
Currently 1st with 81 points. Most likely finish: 1st place. Points range (P10–P90): 94–103.

Cardiff — 98.2% auto promotion
Currently 2nd with 76 points. Most likely finish: 2nd place. Points range (P10–P90): 86–95.

Automatic contenders
Bolton (1.5% auto) and Stockport County (0.3% auto) are also chasing the top two.

Playoff race
Bolton (97.2%), Stockport County (90.4%), Bradford (88.3%), Reading (36.1%) are the most likely playoff sides. Playoff win percentages: Bolton (34.6%), Stockport County (15.5%), Bradford (15.3%), Wycombe (10.6%).

Current Standings

League One

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lincoln	42	28	9	5	79	36	43	93
2	Cardiff	42	24	10	8	77	43	34	82
3	Bolton	43	19	16	8	64	45	19	73
4	Stockport County	42	21	8	13	52	46	6	71
5	Bradford	42	21	8	13	52	46	6	71
6	Stevenage	42	19	10	13	44	43	1	67
7	Huddersfield	43	17	12	14	66	57	9	63
8	Plymouth	42	19	6	17	66	58	8	63
9	Reading	43	16	14	13	62	55	7	62
10	Luton	41	17	10	14	57	50	7	61
11	Wycombe	43	16	12	15	63	51	12	60
12	Barnsley	41	14	13	14	63	65	-2	55
13	Wigan	43	14	13	16	49	56	-7	55
14	Mansfield Town	41	13	15	13	50	43	7	54
15	Doncaster	42	15	8	19	43	64	-21	53
16	Peterborough	41	15	6	20	60	58	2	51
17	Leyton Orient	43	14	9	20	57	66	-9	51
18	Burton Albion	43	13	12	18	46	56	-10	51
19	Blackpool	43	14	9	20	51	65	-14	51
20	AFC Wimbledon	42	14	8	20	49	63	-14	50
21	Exeter City	43	12	11	20	47	55	-8	47
22	Rotherham	42	9	10	23	36	65	-29	37
23	Port Vale	40	8	11	21	30	54	-24	35
24	Northampton	41	9	8	24	34	60	-26	35

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Updated: 15 Apr 2026, 6:02 PM

Relegation Battle

The bottom 4 teams in the League One are relegated at the end of the season.

Port Vale — 99.9% relegation risk
Currently 24th with 28 points. Points range (P10–P90): 33–42.

Northampton — 98.1% relegation risk
Currently 23rd with 35 points. Points range (P10–P90): 38–46.

Rotherham — 92.2% relegation risk
Currently 22nd with 36 points. Points range (P10–P90): 40–49.

Blackpool — 53.2% relegation risk
Currently 21st with 41 points. Points range (P10–P90): 45–54.

Also at risk
Doncaster (14.6%) and Wigan (13.7%) remain in the danger zone.

Current Standings

League One

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lincoln	42	28	9	5	79	36	43	93
2	Cardiff	42	24	10	8	77	43	34	82
3	Bolton	43	19	16	8	64	45	19	73
4	Stockport County	42	21	8	13	52	46	6	71
5	Bradford	42	21	8	13	52	46	6	71
6	Stevenage	42	19	10	13	44	43	1	67
7	Huddersfield	43	17	12	14	66	57	9	63
8	Plymouth	42	19	6	17	66	58	8	63
9	Reading	43	16	14	13	62	55	7	62
10	Luton	41	17	10	14	57	50	7	61
11	Wycombe	43	16	12	15	63	51	12	60
12	Barnsley	41	14	13	14	63	65	-2	55
13	Wigan	43	14	13	16	49	56	-7	55
14	Mansfield Town	41	13	15	13	50	43	7	54
15	Doncaster	42	15	8	19	43	64	-21	53
16	Peterborough	41	15	6	20	60	58	2	51
17	Leyton Orient	43	14	9	20	57	66	-9	51
18	Burton Albion	43	13	12	18	46	56	-10	51
19	Blackpool	43	14	9	20	51	65	-14	51
20	AFC Wimbledon	42	14	8	20	49	63	-14	50
21	Exeter City	43	12	11	20	47	55	-8	47
22	Rotherham	42	9	10	23	36	65	-29	37
23	Port Vale	40	8	11	21	30	54	-24	35
24	Northampton	41	9	8	24	34	60	-26	35

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Updated: 15 Apr 2026, 6:02 PM

Model Methodology

How it works

This simulation uses a Poisson-based Dixon-Coles model — the same statistical framework used by professional sports analysts and betting markets.

Step 1 — Team Strength Parameters

For each team, we calculate four strength metrics from their most recent 15 completed matches:

Attack (home/away) — goals or xG scored, relative to the league average
Defence (home/away) — goals or xG conceded, relative to the league average

For League One, we use actual goals rather than xG, as xG data coverage in this division is sparse and unreliable.

Step 2 — Expected Goals Per Match

For each remaining fixture, we combine the home team’s attack strength, the away team’s defensive strength, and the league-wide home advantage factor to produce expected goals for both sides.

Formula: λ_home = avg_home × attack_home × defence_away

Step 3 — Dixon-Coles Correction

Raw Poisson models slightly overestimate low-scoring draws. We apply a Dixon-Coles correction (ρ = −0.13) that adjusts the probability of 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, and 1-1 scorelines. This improves calibration, particularly at the bottom of the table.

Step 4 — Playoff Simulation

Teams finishing 3rd–6th enter the playoffs. Semi-finals are over two legs (home advantage applies); the final is played at a neutral venue. Away goals do not count double — if scores are level on aggregate, the outcome is decided by a 50/50 coin flip (representing extra time/penalties).

Step 5 — 10,000 Runs

We simulate the entire remaining season 10,000 times. Each run produces a final table and playoff result. The percentages shown are simply the proportion of runs in which each outcome occurred.

Limitations

The model does not account for injuries, suspensions, or manager changes
Transfer window effects are not modelled
All future matches are treated as if played at full strength
The 15-match recency window means early-season form has less influence

Model built by BeyondThePrem.co.uk. Data from API-Football. Last computed: Matchday 38.

League One 2025/26 Season Simulation

Kieron

League One Gameweek 39 Review

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