Three rearranged fixtures, and a division still catching up

League One plays three rearranged fixtures on Tuesday 3 and Wednesday 4 November 2026, each at 7.45pm — one from Matchday 3, one from Matchday 8, one from Matchday 9. A rearranged fixture keeps its original matchday number, so these are still filed under Matchday 3, Matchday 8 and Matchday 9 even though the division has moved past all of them. The model calls the home side in two of the three.

This does not clear the backlog. League One is owed thirteen fixtures from earlier rounds in all; three are played on Tuesday and Wednesday, which leaves ten still outstanding — five from Matchday 8, five from Matchday 9. Clubs are described below by their points and records, because they have played different numbers of matches and a table read straight down does not compare like with like.

Huddersfield v Luton

Tuesday, Matchday 8, 7.45pm

Huddersfield have twenty-eight points from thirteen matches and Luton twenty-three from thirteen. Huddersfield have won eight, drawn four and lost one, scoring twenty-seven and conceding eleven; Luton have won seven, drawn two and lost four, scoring twenty-six and conceding twenty. The 1X2 model leans Huddersfield: 53.2% Huddersfield, 25.3% the draw, 21.5% Luton. The goals model puts 64% on the match finishing within a goal, 50% on under 2.5 goals and 52% on both teams scoring. Its three likeliest scorelines are 1-1 11.6%, 1-0 11.5%, 2-1 9.6%, none of them close to a forecast. We hold twelve previous meetings between these two, across Championship and League One, the most recent in 2025/26. Two of them are the 2021/22 play-off semi-final rather than league fixtures.

Wigan v Mansfield Town

Tuesday, Matchday 9, 7.45pm

Wigan have ten points from thirteen matches and Mansfield Town eighteen from twelve. The two have not played the same number of matches, which is what a rearranged fixture does to a table. Wigan have won three, drawn one and lost nine, scoring eleven and conceding twenty-two; Mansfield Town have won five, drawn three and lost four, scoring twenty and conceding eighteen. The 1X2 model leans Mansfield Town: 30.4% Wigan, 28.4% the draw, 41.2% Mansfield Town. The goals model puts 67% on the match finishing within a goal, 52% on under 2.5 goals and 52% on both teams scoring. Its three likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12.3%, 0-1 10.6%, 1-0 9.1%, none of them close to a forecast. We hold four previous meetings between these two, all of them in League One, the most recent in 2025/26.

Oxford United v Reading

Wednesday, Matchday 3, 7.45pm

Oxford United have twenty-three points from twelve matches and Reading twenty-two from thirteen. Oxford United have won six, drawn five and lost one, scoring twenty and conceding eleven; Reading have won six, drawn four and lost three, scoring twenty-five and conceding thirteen. The 1X2 model leans Oxford United: 41.4% Oxford United, 24.4% the draw, 34.2% Reading. The goals model puts 68% on the match finishing within a goal, 55% on under 2.5 goals and 50% on both teams scoring. Its three likeliest scorelines are 1-1 12.6%, 1-0 11.0%, 0-1 10.0%, none of them close to a forecast. We hold two previous meetings between these two, both of them in League One, the most recent in 2023/24.

What the models say

The probability bars come from leagueone_lr_v3_cal, the 1X2 model. The scorelines come from leagueone_poisson_v1, a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Those are two different models and they are not asked to agree, though on this card they land on the same result in all three. Both are re-run every morning, so a figure here can differ from one printed later in the week.

The table before kick-off

Barnsley, Blackpool, Mansfield Town, Notts County, Oxford United and Stevenage have played twelve, the joint-fewest in the division. With ten fixtures still owed after Wednesday night, the points column and the played column have to be read together for a while yet.