Lincoln Hit 100, Cardiff Lock Auto-Promotion, and the Fourth Relegation Spot Goes to the Final Day
All three of the bottom relegation places were already settled before MD45 even kicked off — Rotherham went down at Wigan on Tuesday, Northampton at Luton on Wednesday, Port Vale midweek at Cardiff. The fourth drop is the only one still live, and it goes to the final day. Leyton Orient lost 1-0 at Blackpool; Exeter drew 1-1 at Burton. Going into the final day, the gap between the two is two points and either of them could escape with a win and a slice of luck. Above them, Lincoln crossed the 100-point line in their final home game; Cardiff, already promoted since 18 April, eased through a coronation 5-1 over Northampton. Twelve fixtures, three midweek catch-ups still to play, and a knife-edge of a Saturday to come.
Lincoln Hit Three Figures
★ Champions: Lincoln City — 100 points, 30W 10D 5L, +46 GD
Their 4-3 home win over Wycombe wasn’t necessarily comfortable but it took them across the symbolic 100-point line — a marker only a handful of L1 sides have ever cleared. Cardiff’s 5-1 thumping of already-relegated Northampton was the home celebration after a season already settled — auto-promotion sealed at Reading on 18 April, second place locked once Lincoln took the title four days later. The two clubs are up to the Championship next season; third place and the playoff seeding are still up for grabs heading into the midweek catch-ups and the final day.
Third Place and the Best Playoff Seed — Three Teams in Range
Bolton are 3rd on 75 with one game left (max 78). Stockport are 4th on 74 with two games left thanks to a postponed Port Vale fixture (max 80). Bradford are 5th, also 74 but with one game left (max 77). All three are already locked into the playoff bracket; what’s at stake on Tuesday and Saturday is the third-place seeding — meaningful for who you draw and where the second leg is played, but everyone here still has to win two playoff games to go up.
The Bottom Four — Three Down, Fourth Decided Saturday
Mathematically down: Northampton (35 pts), Port Vale (39 pts), Rotherham (41 pts)
All three confirmed midweek before MD45 — Rotherham went down 14 April after defeat at Wigan, Northampton 15 April after losing 2-1 at Luton, and Port Vale 22 April after a 1-0 loss at Cardiff. MD45 was the formal close-out: Cardiff added a 5-1 trophy-day mauling of Northampton, Rotherham drew 1-1 at home to Reading, Port Vale lost 2-1 at Plymouth.
The Fourth Spot — A Two-Team Knife-Edge Going Into Saturday
Leyton Orient — 20th, 51 pts
Lost 1-0 at Blackpool. Final day: Burton Albion (17th, 53 pts) at home. Win and they’re safe; anything else and Exeter’s result decides their fate. Currently -12 on goal difference vs Exeter’s -8 — close enough that any final-day tie on points would go Exeter’s way unless LO win and run up the scoreline.
Exeter City — 21st, 49 pts
1-1 at Burton — point salvaged but not enough. Final day: Bradford (5th, playoff-chasing) at home. They need a win AND for Leyton Orient not to win. Anything else and they’re down. As Matt Taylor told BBC Radio Devon after the Burton draw, “If we can’t get up for that then there’s something wrong” — pure-survival framing for a final-day fixture.
So: Leyton Orient’s destiny is in their own hands. A draw or defeat puts the gun in Exeter’s grip — and Exeter would still need to win at home to a Bradford side fighting for playoff seeding.
All MD45 Results
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr | Stockport County | 3 – 1 | Peterborough | ✓ predicted home |
| 25 Apr | Doncaster | 1 – 1 | Stevenage | ✗ predicted home |
| 25 Apr | Wigan | 0 – 1 | AFC Wimbledon | ✗ predicted home |
| 25 Apr | Lincoln | 4 – 3 | Wycombe | ✓ predicted home |
| 25 Apr | Luton | 2 – 1 | Barnsley | ✗ predicted away |
| 25 Apr | Plymouth | 2 – 1 | Port Vale | ✓ predicted home |
| 25 Apr | Blackpool | 1 – 0 | Leyton Orient | ✗ predicted away |
| 25 Apr | Cardiff | 5 – 1 | Northampton | ✓ predicted home |
| 25 Apr | Bradford | 1 – 1 | Bolton | ✗ predicted home |
| 25 Apr | Burton Albion | 1 – 1 | Exeter City | ✗ predicted home |
| 25 Apr | Rotherham | 1 – 1 | Reading | ✗ predicted away |
| 25 Apr | Huddersfield | 1 – 4 | Mansfield Town | ✗ predicted home |
Model: leagueone_lr_v1_cal — Platt-calibrated logistic regression with player-quality features. 4/12 (33%) on outcome accuracy this gameweek — well below the season trend, with four draws and four reverse picks landing on the same Saturday.
Updated League One Table
League One
Updated: 15 May 2026, 5:47 PM
Top Scorers
League One Top Scorers
Leyton Orient — One Game From Survival, One Game From the Drop
Going into the weekend, Leyton Orient were 19th on 51 points, one above the last safe spot. The 1-0 defeat at Blackpool slid them to 20th — same points, lost on goal difference movement — and turned a comfortable safety into a do-it-yourself final day. Burton Albion at the Brisbane Road on Saturday is the most important home game of their season.
The Maths, Plain
- If Leyton Orient win at home to Burton → 54 points. Exeter’s maximum is 52 (current 49 + win). LO above on points by at least 2. LO safe, regardless of any other result.
- If Leyton Orient draw → 52 points. Exeter wins at home → 52 points. Tied. Goal-difference comparison would decide; LO currently -12, Exeter -8. Exeter would take the safety place on GD; LO relegated.
- If Leyton Orient lose → 51 points. Exeter wins → 52 points → above LO. LO relegated. (If Exeter also fails to win, LO stays up at 51 vs Exeter’s max 50 or 49.)
The cleanest path: a home win. The narrowest path: lose plus Exeter also fail to beat playoff-chasing Bradford. Either way, the result that decides everything for Leyton Orient is their own.
Leyton Orient — Recent Form
Leyton Orient - Recent League Form
Burton Albion at Home — The Test
Burton are 17th on 53 points, mathematically safe (their max is 56, Exeter’s max is 52, and the bottom three are well below). They arrive with no jeopardy — a midweek-ish, end-of-season fixture for a side already certain of their division for next year. That’s the kind of opponent who can be passive. It’s also the kind of opponent who can take advantage if the home side’s nerves show.
The Final Day — Saturday 2 May 2026, all 14:00 BST
Twelve fixtures, simultaneous kick-off. Three races still live: third place / playoff seeding, the final two playoff spots (5th–6th), and the fourth relegation drop. Race-deciders are highlighted.
★ Coming Up — League Two Promotion Watch
Four teams come up from L2 to L1 next season: top three are auto-promoted, plus the winner of the play-offs between the teams which finished in the fourth to seventh positions.
| Pos | Team | Pts | GD | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MK Dons | 85 | +41 | Auto |
| 2 | Bromley | 84 | +23 | Auto |
| 3 | Cambridge United | 81 | +33 | Auto (currently) |
| 4 | Salford City | 80 | +10 | Playoff |
| 5 | Notts County | 79 | +22 | Playoff |
| 6 | Grimsby | 77 | +24 | Playoff |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 76 | +14 | Playoff |
| 8 | Swindon Town | 75 | +12 | 1 pt off playoff |
Cambridge sit 3rd on 81 points (+33 GD, 66 goals scored), one ahead of Salford in 4th (80, +10, 61). Cambridge’s 23-goal GD cushion makes the third auto-promotion place very hard to flip on the final day — Salford would need to swing GD by 24 goals in 90 minutes — but mathematically the spot is still alive. The four sides who join L1 next season will replace the four going down.
The Model — How MD45 Went
The BTP League One model — a Platt-calibrated logistic regression with player-quality features (leagueone_lr_v1_cal) — went 4 out of 12 on outcome accuracy this matchday. Below the season average and on the bad side of normal. Misses clustered in two patterns:
- Four draws missed — Doncaster 1-1 Stevenage, Bradford 1-1 Bolton, Burton 1-1 Exeter, Rotherham 1-1 Reading. The model rarely picks draws as the most-likely outcome; four landing in a single weekend is a rough roll.
- Four reverse-pick away wins — Wigan 0-1 AFC Wimbledon (model leaned home), Huddersfield 1-4 Mansfield (model leaned home), Blackpool 1-0 Leyton Orient (model leaned away), Luton 2-1 Barnsley (model leaned away). Two predicted home wins that went away; two predicted away wins that went home.
The misses don’t break the season’s running record but they’re enough to push the moving average for the gameweek down sharply. By contrast, the model nailed the high-confidence picks: Lincoln, Cardiff, Plymouth, Stockport.
Season-to-Date Model Accuracy
Accuracy by Predicted Outcome
Prediction Breakdown (2025)
Final-Day Picks (MD46)
The model’s MD46 predictions are not yet generated — the next-gameweek picks publish closer to kickoff once the rolling-form features have been refreshed against the catch-up midweek results. We’ll have the full 12-fixture probability set up by Friday.
Model: leagueone_lr_v1_cal (Platt-calibrated logistic regression with player-quality features). BeyondThePrem’s content is analytical and editorial; nothing here is betting advice.
