Three down, one to go. Northampton (35 pts), Rotherham (40 pts) and Port Vale (39 pts) have all been mathematically relegated from League One. The final relegation spot remains open: Exeter City sit 21st on 48 points, two behind AFC Wimbledon and three behind Leyton Orient, with Burton Albion and Peterborough also vulnerable on 52. Lincoln City have already sealed the title on 97 points.
Gameweek 45 – Stats & Historical Data
All Fixtures — Head to Head, Form & Historical Positions
League One - Matchday 45 Preview
Season 2025-26 | Powered by 6 seasons of historical data
Doncaster15th
Stevenage6thxGF: 10.4 | xGA: 5.7 (+4.7)
xGF: 5.6 | xGA: 6.0 (-0.5)
22 Nov 2025 - 2025-26
Stockport County5th
Peterborough17thxGF: 5.8 | xGA: 4.4 (+1.4)
xGF: 5.6 | xGA: 10.3 (-4.8)
20 Nov 2025 - 2025-26
Huddersfield9th
Mansfield Town12thxGF: 7.7 | xGA: 5.3 (+2.4)
xGF: 6.8 | xGA: 5.6 (+1.2)
22 Nov 2025 - 2025-26
Cardiff2nd
Northampton24thxGF: 5.7 | xGA: 5.1 (+0.6)
xGF: 3.6 | xGA: 9.2 (-5.6)
22 Nov 2025 - 2025-26
Wigan14th
AFC Wimbledon20thxGF: 4.6 | xGA: 9.7 (-5.0)
xGF: 3.5 | xGA: 6.4 (-2.9)
22 Nov 2025 - 2025-26
Rotherham22nd
Reading10thxGF: 7.3 | xGA: 8.3 (-1.1)
xGF: 6.1 | xGA: 4.8 (+1.3)
22 Nov 2025 - 2025-26
Burton Albion18th
Exeter City21stxGF: 2.7 | xGA: 7.9 (-5.2)
xGF: 7.6 | xGA: 4.2 (+3.3)
3 Mar 2026 - 2025-26
Bradford4th
Bolton3rdxGF: 4.2 | xGA: 7.1 (-3.0)
xGF: 7.7 | xGA: 4.0 (+3.7)
22 Nov 2025 - 2025-26
Blackpool16th
Leyton Orient19thxGF: 8.3 | xGA: 4.4 (+3.9)
xGF: 5.3 | xGA: 7.6 (-2.2)
22 Nov 2025 - 2025-26
Plymouth8th
Port Vale23rdxGF: 11.5 | xGA: 3.0 (+8.5)
xGF: 6.5 | xGA: 8.3 (-1.7)
22 Nov 2025 - 2025-26
Luton7th
Barnsley13thxGF: 7.1 | xGA: 10.0 (-2.9)
xGF: 3.9 | xGA: 8.8 (-4.8)
22 Nov 2025 - 2025-26
Lincoln1st
Wycombe11thxGF: 9.9 | xGA: 7.0 (+2.9)
xGF: 8.5 | xGA: 6.3 (+2.2)
22 Nov 2025 - 2025-26
Matchday 45 - Historical Insights
Playoff Race: Teams in 6th place at matchday 45 have averaged 75 points historically.
Relegation Battle: Teams in 22nd at matchday 45 have averaged 41 points historically.
Leyton Orient at Matchday 45:
- 2024-25: 6th with 75 pts → Finished 6th
- 2023-24: 12th with 62 pts → Finished 12th
Current League One Table
League One Table
League One
Updated: 25 Apr 2026, 5:01 PM
Leyton Orient at Matchday 45 — Through The Years
Leyton Orient Historical Comparison
Historical Position Comparison
Leyton Orient at Matchday 45
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 (now) | 19th | 51 | -11 | - |
| 2024-25 | 6th | 75 | +21 | 6th |
| 2023-24 | 12th | 62 | -4 | 12th |
Data from 6 League One seasons (2019–2025)
Key Storylines This Week
What to Watch For
- Final relegation spot: The fight for survival: Exeter City (48 points) occupy the drop zone, with AFC Wimbledon (50), Leyton Orient (51), Burton Albion (52) and Peterborough (52) just above them.
- Lincoln’s title procession: Lincoln were confirmed champions on 97 points, nine clear of Cardiff City with two matches remaining.
- Playoff race tightens: Bolton (74), Bradford (73), Stockport County (71, game in hand), Stevenage (71), Luton (68) and Plymouth (67) are separated by seven points for positions 3–6.
League One Top Scorers
Top Scorers Heading into Gameweek 45
Top Assists
Top Assist Providers
League One Top Assists
Head to Head
Burton Albion vs Exeter City
Last 5 league meetings
| Date | Home | Score | Away | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Mar 2026 2025-26 | Exeter City | 1 - 1 | Burton Albion | - |
| 18 Apr 2025 2024-25 | Exeter City | 0 - 0 | Burton Albion | - |
| 21 Dec 2024 2024-25 | Burton Albion | 1 - 2 | Exeter City | - |
| 16 Mar 2024 2023-24 | Exeter City | 1 - 0 | Burton Albion | - |
| 02 Sep 2023 2023-24 | Burton Albion | 0 - 1 | Exeter City | - |
Recent Form Comparison
Form Comparison - Last 6 Games
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burton Albion | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 9 | WLDDWD |
| 2 | Exeter City | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 | LDLWDD |
Burton Albion - Recent Results
Exeter City - Recent Results
xG Trends
Burton Albion - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Exeter City - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Goals by Period
Burton Albion - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Exeter City - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Historical Position at Matchday 45
Historical Position Comparison
Burton Albion - Saturday 25th April 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 (now) | 18th | 52 | -10 | - |
| 2024-25 | 20th | 47 | -15 | 20th |
| 2023-24 | 20th | 46 | -25 | 20th |
| 2022-23 | 14th | 55 | -22 | 15th |
| 2021-22 | 16th | 53 | -15 | 16th |
| 2020-21 | 16th | 57 | -8 | 16th |
Historical Position Comparison
Exeter City - Saturday 25th April 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 (now) | 21st | 48 | -8 | - |
| 2024-25 | 15th | 56 | -13 | 16th |
| 2023-24 | 13th | 61 | -14 | 13th |
| 2022-23 | 15th | 53 | -5 | 14th |
Player to Watch
Jayden Wareham — Exeter City
Jayden Wareham is Exeter’s leading scorer with 19 goals in 44 League One appearances. His movement and finishing will be key if Exeter are to breach a Burton defence that has kept things relatively tight. The visitors’ survival hopes rest heavily on his form.
Jayden Wareham
Exeter City • F • 2025-2026 Season
BTP Verdict
Expect a tense, low-scoring contest. Exeter will press hard but Burton’s experience should see them edge a narrow home win, leaving Exeter’s fate uncertain.
Leyton Orient vs Blackpool — Saturday, 15:00 BST
The Opposition: Leyton Orient travel to Blackpool, who sit 16th on 54 points with little to play for. Blackpool’s home form has been inconsistent, but they remain a compact, organised side. They will defend deep and threaten on the counter.
Key Battle: Dominic Ballard’s finishing, with 22 league goals, will test Blackpool’s defensive shape. Blackpool will aim to deny him space in the box.
What We Think: A draw would strengthen Leyton Orient’s safety case, but a win would virtually seal their League One status. However, Orient are not yet mathematically safe – if they lose and both Exeter and Wimbledon win, they could still finish 21st in an unlikely but possible edge-case scenario.
Head to Head
Leyton Orient vs Blackpool
Last 5 league meetings
| Date | Home | Score | Away | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov 2025 2025-26 | Leyton Orient | 1 - 1 | Blackpool | 1.3 - 1.4 |
| 15 Mar 2025 2024-25 | Blackpool | 1 - 2 | Leyton Orient | - |
| 09 Nov 2024 2024-25 | Leyton Orient | 3 - 0 | Blackpool | - |
| 27 Feb 2024 2023-24 | Leyton Orient | 1 - 0 | Blackpool | - |
| 19 Aug 2023 2023-24 | Blackpool | 0 - 0 | Leyton Orient | - |
Recent Form Comparison
Form Comparison - Last 6 Games
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blackpool | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 13 | DWWLWW |
| 2 | Leyton Orient | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 | DDLLDL |
Leyton Orient - Recent Results
Blackpool - Recent Results
xG Trends
Leyton Orient - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Blackpool - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Goals by Period
Leyton Orient - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Blackpool - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Historical Position at Matchday 45
Historical Position Comparison
Leyton Orient - Saturday 25th April 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 (now) | 19th | 51 | -11 | - |
| 2024-25 | 6th | 75 | +21 | 6th |
| 2023-24 | 12th | 62 | -4 | 12th |
Historical Position Comparison
Blackpool - Saturday 25th April 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 (now) | 16th | 54 | -13 | - |
| 2024-25 | 9th | 64 | +9 | 9th |
| 2023-24 | 8th | 73 | +18 | 8th |
| 2020-21 | 3rd | 77 | +22 | 3rd |
Leyton Orient Recent Form
Leyton Orient - Recent League Form
Player to Watch
Dominic Ballard — Leyton Orient
Dominic Ballard leads League One with 22 goals in 38 appearances, plus four assists. The Leyton Orient striker has been a constant threat, tracked by BTP as a standout performer in a promoted side.
Dominic Ballard
Leyton Orient • F • 2025-2026 Season
BTP Verdict
Leyton Orient have overachieved this season. A result this weekend should put the final tick on safety, capping an impressive campaign.
BTP Predictions
Doncaster vs Stevenage
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a narrow lean toward Doncaster at 42%. Full split: home 42% / draw 23% / away 35%.
Stockport County vs Peterborough
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Stockport County at 52%. Full split: home 52% / draw 17% / away 31%.
Huddersfield vs Mansfield Town
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Huddersfield at 51%. Full split: home 51% / draw 22% / away 27%.
Cardiff vs Northampton
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a clear lean toward Cardiff at 71%. Full split: home 71% / draw 18% / away 11%.
Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Wigan at 47%. Full split: home 47% / draw 21% / away 32%.
Rotherham vs Reading
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Reading at 50%. Full split: home 33% / draw 17% / away 50%.
Burton Albion vs Exeter City
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Burton Albion at 54%. Full split: home 54% / draw 20% / away 26%.
Bradford vs Bolton
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a narrow lean toward Bradford at 42%. Full split: home 42% / draw 18% / away 40%.
Blackpool vs Leyton Orient
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a narrow lean toward Leyton Orient at 44%. Full split: home 37% / draw 19% / away 44%.
Plymouth vs Port Vale
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Plymouth at 58%. Full split: home 58% / draw 26% / away 17%.
Luton vs Barnsley
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a narrow lean toward Barnsley at 40%. Full split: home 38% / draw 22% / away 40%.
Lincoln vs Wycombe
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Lincoln at 49%. Full split: home 49% / draw 21% / away 30%.
🤖 Model Notes — GW45
Model Notes — GW45: The current model is leagueone_lr_v1_cal, a Platt-calibrated logistic regression with player-quality features, deployed 17 April 2026. Trained on ~3,300 L1 matches across 2019/20-2024/25. Walk-forward validation showed a 2.6% better log-loss than the previous RF baseline. This week the tightest game is Stockport-Peterborough, while Cardiff-Northampton is the clearest pick.
Model: leagueone_lr_v1_cal — Platt-calibrated Logistic Regression with player-quality features, trained on ~3,300 League One matches (2019/20–2024/25). 2.6% better log-loss than the previous Random Forest baseline on walk-forward. Full methodology here.
Check back after the weekend for our full Gameweek 45 League One review with match reports and updated standings!
