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Home Championship

Championship 2025/26 — Final Day Review

underthegreysky1971 by underthegreysky1971
06/05/2026
in Championship, Reviews, The Model
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Coventry sealed the Championship secured on 17th April a 4-0 win at Watford, finishing with a whopping  95 points. Ipswich spawned automatic promotion with a 3-0 victory over QPR. Millwall’s 2-0 defeat of Oxford United confirmed their third-place finish on 83 points. Southampton battered Preston 3-1 to claim fourth on 80 points. Middlesbrough drew 2-2 with Wrexham to secure fifth, also on 80 points in a huge game for both sides. Hull City beat Norwich 2-1 to take sixth on 73 points after a frantic matchup at the MKM. At the bottom, Oxford United (47 points), Leicester City (46 after a six-point PSR deduction), and Sheffield Wednesday (18) are relegated. The top three were separated by 12 points. Coventry’s 95 points are the division’s highest; Sheffield Wednesday’s 18 the lowest. Oxford United, Leicester City, and Sheffield Wednesday will play in League One next season.

Champion

Coventry (95 pts, 11-pt margin)

Auto-promoted

Coventry + Ipswich

Playoff

Millwall, Southampton, Middlesbrough, Hull City

Relegated

Oxford United, Leicester, Sheffield Wednesday

Featured storylines

Late Season Collapse

Leicester held 3rd at matchday 9 but slipped to 23rd by season-end.

Late Season Surge

Ipswich bottomed out 19th at matchday 4 but climbed to 2nd.

Late Season Surge

Southampton bottomed out 21st at matchday 13 but climbed to 4th.

Position by Matchday
16121824MD1MD12MD23MD34MD46CoventryIpswichMillwallSouthamptonMiddlesbroughHull CityWrexhamDerbyOxford UnitedLeicesterSheffield Wednesday
Form across the final 15 matchdays
MD32MD33MD34MD35MD36MD37MD38MD39MD40MD41MD42MD43MD44MD45MD461. CoventryWWWWWWLWWDDDWWW2. IpswichWLWWDDWDDWWDWDW3. MillwallWLWWWWLDWLDWWDW4. SouthamptonWDWWWDWWDWWWDWW5. MiddlesbroughLDDWWLDDLDLDWWD6. Hull CityLLWWLWLWDDLDDLW7. WrexhamDWWWLLWWDLLWWLD8. DerbyWLLWWLWWLWLWLWL9. NorwichWLWWLWWWDWLWWDL10. BirminghamDWLLLWDLLLWDWWD11. SwanseaLWDLWWLLDDWLWDW12. Bristol CityDLWLLLDLWWDLDLW13. Sheffield UtdWWLWDLDLDLWWLLW14. PrestonDLDLLLLWDDWLLWL15. QPRLWLLLLWWWDDLLLL16. WatfordDWLWWDLDLDLLLLL17. Stoke CityLDWLLDWLWLDLLLL18. PortsmouthLWLLDLLLDDWWLWD19. West BromDLDLDDWWDDDWWDL20. CharltonWDDLWWDLLDLDLWL21. BlackburnWWLLDLWDWDDDWLL22. Oxford UnitedLDLWWWDLDDWLLWL23. LeicesterLDDLDWLDDDLLDDW24. Sheffield WednesdayLLLLLDLLLDDDLLW

Club-by-club

Watford 0-4 Coventry (0-4)

Watford

On the final matchday at home against Coventry, the side lost 0-4. The result carried no change in league-table safety. The season finished in 16th place with 57 points, a goal difference of -12, and a record of 14 wins, 15 draws, 17 losses. The side lost each of its final five matches. Home record: 10 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses; away record: 4 wins, 8 draws, 11 losses. The highest league position was 4th after matchday 25; the lowest was 21st after matchday 6. QPR finished directly above on 58 points; Stoke City directly below on 55. The club will now turn to the next campaign.

Coventry

At Watford, a 4-0 win secured the title. The side finished first on 95 points (W28 D11 L7, GD+52). Their last five matches contained two draws and three wins. The biggest win was 7-1 against QPR; the heaviest defeat 0-3 at Ipswich. Home record: 17 wins, four draws, two losses. Away record: 11 wins, seven draws, five losses. The table high was first at matchday 9; the low was 15th at matchday 1. Ipswich finished second on 84 points. The title earns a place in the premier league next season.

Ipswich 3-0 QPR (3-0)

Ipswich

At home to QPR, the side won 3-0. The result secured automatic promotion.

The club finished second in the table on 84 points from 46 matches, with a goal difference of +33. The final five matches produced three wins and two draws. The league campaign yielded 23 wins, 15 draws and eight defeats. The largest victory was 5-0 against Sheffield United; the heaviest loss was 0-3 against Charlton. The team enters the Premier League next season.

QPR

On the final matchday, the club lost 0-3 at Ipswich, a result that left them unchanged in the table. The season concluded with a 15th-place finish on 58 points and a goal difference of -12. Their final five matches produced five losses, with no wins or draws. The biggest win during the campaign was a 6-1 home victory over Portsmouth; the heaviest defeat a 1-7 loss at Coventry. The side finished directly above Watford (57 points) and directly below Preston (60 points). The club will aim to improve on its points total next season.

Millwall 2-0 Oxford United (2-0)

Millwall

At home to Oxford United on the final day, the team won 2-0 (W), a result that secured a third-place playoff spot. They finish third on 83 points with a +15 goal difference from 24 wins, 11 draws, and 11 defeats. In the final five matches the side recorded three wins and two draws. The biggest win was 4-0, the heaviest defeat 0-4. The highest league position was second on matchday 40; the lowest was 16th on matchday 2. The side will enter the playoff round against Hull City.

Oxford United

A 0-2 loss at Millwall confirmed relegation. Finish 22nd, 47 points (W11 D14 L21), GD minus-14. Last five matches: WLLWL (two wins, three defeats). Biggest win 4-1 versus Sheffield Wednesday; heaviest defeat 0-3 at Stoke. Home record W7 D8 L8; away W4 D6 L13. Season high position 19th on matchday ten, low 23rd on matchday three. Blackburn finished directly above on 52 points, Leicester directly below on 46. The team will compete in League One next season.

Preston 1-3 Southampton (1-3)

Preston

The side lost 1-3 at home to Southampton, a result that did not change their already-safe league-table status. They finished 14th on 60 points with a goal difference of minus seven (15 wins, 15 draws, 16 losses). Form over the last five matches produced two wins, one draw, and two losses. The biggest win was 3-0 against Sheffield Wednesday; the heaviest defeat was 0-4 at Middlesbrough. The home record was eight wins, seven draws, eight losses; the away record was seven wins, eight draws, eight losses. The highest league position was third on matchday 21; the lowest was 17th on matchday 38. Sheffield United finished directly above on points; QPR directly below. Next season they will work to improve on this mid-table finish.

Southampton

They signed off with a 3-1 away win at Preston, securing a fourth-place finish and a playoff berth. The side ended with 80 points from 22 wins, 14 draws and 10 losses, a goal difference of plus-26. Their final five matches produced four wins and a draw. The biggest win of the campaign was 5-0 against QPR; the heaviest defeat, 0-4 at Middlesbrough. At home they won 12, drew eight and lost three; away they won 10, drew six and lost seven. The highest table position, third, came after matchday one; the lowest, 21st, after matchday 13. Millwall ended above on 83 points; Middlesbrough level below on 80. The playoff campaign begins.

Hull City 2-1 Norwich (2-1)

Hull City

The 2-1 home win over Norwich secured a sixth-place playoff spot. The side finished sixth on 73 points (21 wins, 10 draws, 15 losses) with a goal difference of plus four. The final five matches produced one win, two draws, and two losses. Sergej Jakirović was the manager at season’s end. The home record was 11 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses; the away record 10 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses. The club reached as high as third after matchday 29 and as low as twentieth after matchday 5. Middlesbrough finished directly above on 80 points; Wrexham finished directly below on 71 points. The coming playoff will determine whether the club can move up.

Norwich

They lost 1-2 away at Hull City on the final day, a defeat that left their safe league position unchanged. The team finished 9th on 65 points (W19 D8 L19, GD+7). Form in the final five matches: two wins, one draw, two losses. The biggest win was 5-0 against West Brom; the heaviest defeat 1-4 at Birmingham. Home record: nine wins, three draws, eleven losses. Away record: ten wins, five draws, eight losses. They ended the season between Derby on 69 points and Birmingham on 64 points. The club now prepares for the next season.

Wrexham 2-2 Middlesbrough (2-2)

Wrexham

The final matchday saw the team draw 2-2 at home with Middlesbrough, a result that saw them go down to seventh and out of the play offs which many fans applauded. They finished 7th on 71 points, with a goal difference of +4 from 19 wins, 14 draws, and 13 losses. Their last five matches contained two wins, one draw, and two losses. The side recorded ten home wins and nine away wins. Their highest league position was 6th on matchday 29, their lowest 21st on matchday 5. Hull City finished directly above on 73 points. The side will need to address a goal difference of +4 to improve next season.

Middlesbrough

The side drew 2-2 away to Wrexham on the final matchday, securing fifth place and a playoff berth. They finished 5th with 80 points (22 wins, 14 draws, 10 losses, goal difference plus 25). The last five matches produced one loss, two draws and two wins. Their highest league position was 1st after matchday 4; the lowest 7th after matchday 1. The biggest win was 4-0 against Southampton; the heaviest defeat 0-3 at Watford. At home they recorded 12 wins, six draws and five losses; away 10 wins, eight draws and five losses. Southampton finished 4th, level on points; Hull City 6th on 73. The side now enters the playoff rounds.

Blackburn 0-1 Leicester (0-1)

Blackburn

At home against Leicester on the final day, the side lost 0-1. The result did not alter the club’s league-table position. The club finished 21st with 52 points and a goal difference of -14. Over the final five matches the record was two draws, one win, and two losses. At home the side won four, drew nine, and lost ten; away it won nine, drew four, and lost ten. The highest league position was 16th after three matches; the lowest was 23rd after eleven. The club will need to build on this for the following season.

Leicester

The season ended away at Blackburn with a 1-0 win, though the result confirmed relegation. They finished 23rd on 46 points, a six-point PSR deduction from a playing total of 52. Goal difference was -10. Home record was 7 wins, 7 draws, 9 losses; away record was 5 wins, 9 draws, 9 losses. Biggest win was 2-0 against Birmingham; heaviest defeat was 0-3 at Southampton. The side reached 3rd after nine matches but dropped to 23rd by matchday 42. Last five matches produced one win, two draws, two losses. The club will play in League One next season.

Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 West Brom (2-1)

Sheffield Wednesday

At home against West Brom, the side won 2-1. The result confirmed relegation from the Championship. They finished 24th with 18 points from two wins, 12 draws, and 32 losses, a goal difference of minus 60. Their form over the last five matches was one win, two draws, and two losses. The heaviest defeat of the season was 0-5 to Coventry. The biggest win was 2-0 against Portsmouth. The side will play in League One next season.

West Brom

The side lost 1-2 away to Sheffield Wednesday on the final day, a result that carried no league-table consequence. They finished 19th on 53 points (13 wins, 14 draws, 19 losses, goal difference -10). Over the final five matches the record was two wins, one draw, two losses. The season included a 3-0 win against Hull City and a 0-5 defeat to Norwich. They finished one point behind Portsmouth and level on points with Charlton, separated by goal difference. The club will aim to improve on a mid-table finish in the coming season.

Bristol City 2-0 Stoke City (2-0)

Bristol City

At home to Stoke City on the final day, the side won 2-0. The result changed nothing — the side was already safe. The model predicted a home win; a 1-0 scoreline was the most likely. The side finished 12th on 62 points with a goal difference of zero. In the last five matches the side recorded one win, two draws, and two losses. At home the side won nine, drew four, lost ten; away the side won eight, drew seven, lost eight. Next season the side will aim to improve a home record that yielded only nine wins from twenty-three matches.

Stoke City

The season ended with a 0-2 defeat at Bristol City, the result confirming the club’s final 17th position. The team finished on 55 points from 15 wins, 10 draws, and 21 losses, with a goal difference of -5. The final five matches yielded one draw and four losses. The biggest win, 5-1, came against Bristol City; the heaviest defeat, 0-4, versus Sheffield United. At home the team won nine and lost eight; away they won six and lost 13. The club finished one point above Portsmouth in 18th and two behind Watford in 16th. The poor late-season form will need correcting for the next campaign.

Derby 1-2 Sheffield Utd (1-2)

Derby

At home against Sheffield United, a 1-2 defeat. No change in league position, at one point in the afternoon they sat 6th and in the playoffs. Final position 8th with 69 points and a goal difference of +8. The side took 20 wins, 9 draws, 17 losses. Over the final five matches, two wins and three losses. The campaign peaked at 6th and bottomed at 23rd. Neighbouring Wrexham finished 7th on 71 points, Norwich 9th on 65. The model’s modal prediction was a home win. Next season the target will be to climb to play offs.

Sheffield Utd

On the final matchday, away at Derby, they won 2-1. The side finished 13th on 60 points with a goal difference of zero. The last five matches produced three wins and two losses. The heaviest defeat was 0-5 at Ipswich. At home they won nine, drew four, lost ten; away they won nine, drew two, lost twelve. The season-high league position was 11th; the low was 24th. Bristol City finished two points above on 62; Preston level on 60. The club will enter next season in the same division.

Swansea 3-1 Charlton (3-1)

Swansea

The side ended their season at home against Charlton, recording a 3-1 win that left their final position unchanged at 11th. They finished on 64 points, with a goal difference of minus two, from 18 wins, 10 draws, and 18 losses. Their final five matches produced three wins, one draw, and one loss. The season’s biggest victory was 4-0 over Sheffield Wednesday, the heaviest defeat 1-4 at Ipswich. At home they won 11, drew six, and lost six; away they won seven, drew four, and lost 12. Their highest league position was seventh after round four, the lowest 21st after round one. Birmingham finished directly above them on the same points, Bristol City two points below. The squad will aim for a higher finish next term.

Charlton

The season ended with a 1-3 loss at Swansea. The defeat left them unchanged in the table, already safe from relegation. They finished 20th on 53 points (13 wins, 14 draws, 19 losses) with a goal difference of -14. The final five matches contained one win, one draw and three losses. The highest league position was 5th after matchday 11; the lowest was 22nd after matchday 29. They ended one place and equal on points with West Brom above, and one place and one point ahead of Blackburn below. The focus now turns to next season’s squad planning.

Portsmouth 1-1 Birmingham (1-1)

Portsmouth

The side drew 1-1 at home with Birmingham on the final day, the result leaving an already-safe league-table position unchanged. They finished 18th on 55 points (W14 D13 L19, GD-15). The final five matches produced three wins, one draw, and one loss. The heaviest defeat was 0-5 at Bristol City. Their season high-water mark was ninth after matchday one; the low point was 22nd at matchday 18. The side edged Stoke City on points for 17th, while West Brom finished one point behind in 19th.

Birmingham

At Portsmouth they drew 1-1, a result without affecting league-table consequence. They finished 10th on 64 points with a goal difference of +1. The last five matches produced three wins and two draws. The season’s highest league position was 5th after three matches; the lowest was 17th after ten. At home they won 12, drew 8 and lost 3; away they won 5, drew 5 and lost 13. Next season they will aim to improve on a mid-table finish.

Final table

Auto
Playoff
Near-miss
Mid-table
Relegated
2
4
2
13
3
24-team partition by season-end cohort
Pos Crest Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts Form
1 Coventry 46 28 11 7 97 45 +52 95 DDWWW
2 Ipswich 46 23 15 8 80 47 +33 84 WDWDW
3 Millwall 46 24 11 11 64 49 +15 83 DWWDW
4 Southampton 46 22 14 10 82 56 +26 80 WWDWW
5 Middlesbrough 46 22 14 10 72 47 +25 80 LDWWD
6 Hull City 46 21 10 15 70 66 +4 73 LDDLW
7 Wrexham 46 19 14 13 69 65 +4 71 LWWLD
8 Derby 46 20 9 17 67 59 +8 69 LWLWL
9 Norwich 46 19 8 19 63 56 +7 65 LWWDL
10 Birmingham 46 17 13 16 57 56 +1 64 WDWWD
11 Swansea 46 18 10 18 57 59 -2 64 WLWDW
12 Bristol City 46 17 11 18 59 59 0 62 DLDLW
13 Sheffield Utd 46 18 6 22 66 66 0 60 WWLLW
14 Preston 46 15 15 16 55 62 -7 60 WLLWL
15 QPR 46 16 10 20 61 73 -12 58 DLLLL
16 Watford 46 14 15 17 53 65 -12 57 LLLLL
17 Stoke City 46 15 10 21 51 56 -5 55 DLLLL
18 Portsmouth 46 14 13 19 49 64 -15 55 WWLWD
19 West Brom 46 13 14 19 48 58 -10 53 DWWDL
20 Charlton 46 13 14 19 44 58 -14 53 LDLWL
21 Blackburn 46 13 13 20 42 56 -14 52 DDWLL
22 Oxford United 46 11 14 21 45 59 -14 47 WLLWL
23 Leicester 46 12 16 18 58 68 -10 46 (-6) LLDDW
24 Sheffield Wednesday 46 2 12 32 29 89 -60 18 DDLLW

-6pt PSR deduction applied to Leicester

What’s Brier? A measure of how confident and correct the model’s probability predictions were. Lower is better. A perfect prediction scores 0; a coin-flip on a 3-way outcome scores around 0.667; the dashed line shows the naive “always predict home win” baseline of 1.17. The pink line is our model’s 5-matchday rolling Brier — it tracks whether the model is improving, holding steady, or drifting as the season progresses.

Model accuracy by matchday (5-MD rolling Brier)
naive baseline (1.17)0.40.60.81.01.2MD5MD10MD15MD20MD25MD30MD35MD40MD45Matchday →Brier (lower = better)

ML retrospective

43.1%1X2 hit rate (N=540)
0.653Brier 3-class (vs naive 1.17)
trended toward improvingBrier slope (p=0.179)

Top high-confidence hits

coventry v qpr
model: home win 79%; result: 7-1 home
coventry v sheffield-utd
model: home win 77%; result: 3-1 home
coventry v blackburn
model: home win 75%; result: 2-0 home
coventry v charlton
model: home win 74%; result: 3-1 home
coventry v watford
model: home win 72%; result: 3-1 home

Top high-confidence misses

oxford-united v coventry
model: away win 79%; result: 2-2 draw
coventry v norwich
model: home win 77%; result: 1-1 draw
coventry v sheffield-wednesday
model: home win 75%; result: 0-0 draw
bristol-city v charlton
model: home win 75%; result: 0-0 draw
middlesbrough v leicester
model: home win 72%; result: 1-1 draw

Matchday accuracy is computed against pre-kickoff live predictions. Season-wide accuracy is computed against retrospectively-generated predictions using a uniform point-in-time pipeline (asof = kickoff − 1s); equivalent within data-correction margins to the live predictions where both exist.

Headline accuracy from N=540 fixtures, Wilson 95% CI ±4pp. Up from N=62 preview-only coverage (±12pp), a roughly 3× tightening.

Goals scored vs goals conceded
404060608080100100Goals for →Goals against ↓GF = GAWrexhamDerbyMillwallSouthamptonMiddlesbroughHull CityCoventryIpswichOxford UnitedLeicesterSheffield Wednesday
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Hull City's data-defying play-off mission faces Millwall acid test

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Beyond The Prem

Data-first football writing

This site is a hobby project run by a former healthcare professional and computing graduate who likes football and data. There's no monetisation agenda, no ads, and no ambition to become the next big football media brand.

What there is: ML-backed match previews, honest accountability when the model gets it wrong, and analysis covering the Championship, League One and WSL that tries to be genuinely data-driven rather than just opinion dressed up in numbers.

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Posts go up most days during the season. The model's predictions are published before kick-off and the results tracked openly — good weeks and bad ones.

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