Wrexham 1–2 West Brom

🏟️ Racecourse Ground

Kieffer Moore’s 64th-minute finish looked like ending Wrexham’s wait, but West Brom converted their better underlying numbers into a late turnaround. Isaac Price equalised at 79 minutes and Aune Selland Heggebø completed the recovery five minutes later. West Brom finished with xG of 1.01 to Wrexham’s 0.46. The win halts West Brom’s two-match losing run and moves them to 17 points, while Wrexham sit on 11 with no win in two.

⚽ Goals: Kieffer Moore (64′), Isaac Price (79′), Aune Selland Heggebø (84′)

Key Moment: Aune Selland Heggebø’s 84th-minute winner completed the away turnaround.

What It Means: West Brom stopped a two-defeat slide; Wrexham are without a win in two.

Burnley 2–2 Charlton

🏟️ Turf Moor

Burnley led twice but could not hold an opponent that shaded them on xG 2.14 to 1.13. Jacob Bruun Larsen put Burnley ahead on 36 minutes, Kayne Ramsay levelled after the break, Largie Ramazani restored the lead at 57, and Ivan Mesík popped up in the sixth minute of stoppage time to earn Charlton a point. Burnley are now unbeaten in three but have won only one of 10; Charlton remain winless in seven despite the late reward.

⚽ Goals: Jacob Bruun Larsen (36′), Kayne Ramsay (50′), Largie Ramazani (57′), Ivan Mesík (90+6′)

Key Moment: Mesík’s 90+6 equaliser rescued a draw for Charlton.

What It Means: Burnley avoid defeat and move to eight points; Charlton’s winless run sits at seven.

Millwall 0–1 Swansea

🏟️ The Den

Swansea left it until the 90th minute to win a game they had controlled in patches. Ronald’s close-range finish separated the sides, but the underlying numbers were just as telling: Swansea finished with xG of 1.85 to Millwall’s 1.09, and Millwall could not find an equaliser. The result is Swansea’s fourth straight win, moving them to 23 points from 10 games. Millwall suffered their fourth defeat of the season and another home blank.

⚽ Goals: Ronald (90′)

Key Moment: Ronald’s 90th-minute finish broke Millwall’s resistance.

What It Means: Swansea extended their winning run to four; Millwall fall to their fourth defeat.

Bristol City 0–1 Blackburn

🏟️ Ashton Gate Stadium

This was a low-xG away win, and then some. Oladapo Afolayan’s 38th-minute goal was Blackburn’s only clear opening, yet it was enough because Bristol City wasted a succession of chances. The hosts finished with xG of 1.98 to Blackburn’s 0.21, a stark divergence. City remain on 14 points after the defeat, while Blackburn’s second straight win takes them to 15.

⚽ Goals: Oladapo Afolayan (38′)

Key Moment: Afolayan’s 38th-minute goal was Blackburn’s only clear opening.

What It Means: Bristol City wasted 1.98 xG in defeat; Blackburn’s two wins in a row move them to 15 points.

Wolves 1–3 Bolton

🏟️ Molineux Stadium

Wolves out-created Bolton and lost. Jean-Ricner Bellegarde’s 50th-minute equaliser briefly hinted at a comeback, but Bolton’s response was decisive: Sam Dalby restored the lead at 72, Josh Sheehan made the points safe 10 minutes later. Wolves finished with xG of 2.27 to Bolton’s 1.64, a number at odds with a second straight defeat. Bolton’s 3-1 success was their fourth win of the season and another statement away from home.

⚽ Goals: Atsuki Ito (28′), Jean-Ricner Bellegarde (50′), Sam Dalby (72′), Josh Sheehan (82′)

Key Moment: Sam Dalby’s 72nd-minute goal restored Bolton’s lead after Wolves had threatened to turn it.

What It Means: Wolves have consecutive defeats and questions about their attacking edge; Bolton follow a defeat with a statement away win.

Birmingham 4–0 Preston

🏟️ St. Andrew’s Stadium

Birmingham 4–0 Preston — St. Andrew’s Stadium. Birmingham converted their early control into a blowout. Liam Millar opened the scoring on 34 minutes, August Priske struck twice in first-half stoppage time, and Demarai Gray added the fourth after the break. Preston managed only 0.52 xG and rarely troubled the hosts; Birmingham’s 2.28 xG was an accurate reflection of the gap. The win is Birmingham’s second on the bounce and leaves them on 17 points. Preston have lost eight of 10 and remain on four points.

⚽ Goals: Liam Millar (34′), August Priske (45+2′), August Priske (45+4′), Demarai Gray (76′)

Key Moment: Priske’s quick double just before the interval removed any doubt.

What It Means: Birmingham are two straight wins and climbing; Preston’s defeat leaves them on four points from 10.

Stoke City 2–3 Middlesbrough

🏟️ Bet365 Stadium

Middlesbrough had more than enough chances to win and did so the hard way. Callum Brittain put Boro ahead, Neto Borges turned into his own net to level for Stoke, Will Lankshear restored the lead, Róbert Boženík equalised again, and then Borges redeemed himself with a 90+1 winner. Stoke were outplayed on xG 0.74 to 2.63, yet somehow had a point in sight until the final minute. Boro’s unbeaten run is now eight; Stoke’s three-match winning run ends.

⚽ Goals: Callum Brittain (48′), Neto Borges (50′ og), Will Lankshear (73′), Róbert Boženík (85′), Neto Borges (90+1′)

Key Moment: Neto Borges’s 90+1 winner capped a chaotic finish after his earlier own goal.

What It Means: Middlesbrough’s unbeaten run reaches eight; Stoke lose for the first time in four.

Portsmouth 3–2 Sheffield Utd

🏟️ Fratton Park

Portsmouth twice led and were pegged back, but Ebou Adams’s 89th-minute goal gave them a much-needed third win. Zak Swanson and Adrian Segecic put Pompey in control before Japhet Tanganga and Thomas Cannon hauled Sheffield United level. Both sides finished close on xG, 2.25 to 2.03, so the late winner was no statistical injustice. Chris Wilder’s side had Hamza Choudhury sent off but still threatened; Portsmouth’s win lifts them to 11 points.

⚽ Goals: Zak Swanson (41′), Adrian Segecic (54′), Japhet Tanganga (59′), Thomas Cannon (67′), Ebou Adams (89′)

Key Moment: Ebou Adams’s 89th-minute strike ended Portsmouth’s wait for a win.

What It Means: Portsmouth record their third win; Sheffield United lose after last week’s win.

QPR 4–1 Derby

🏟️ Loftus Road

QPR ended a run of four straight draws with a comfortable dismantling of Derby. Alfie Lloyd, Nicolas Madsen from the spot, Harvey Vale and Paul Smyth scored as the hosts raced into a four-goal lead, while Derby’s consolation from Lars-Jørgen Salvesen arrived deep into stoppage time. QPR’s xG of 1.60 was modest but their finishing was efficient; Derby remain anchored on six points and have now gone six without a win.

⚽ Goals: Alfie Lloyd (18′), Nicolas Madsen (22′ pen), Harvey Vale (45′), Paul Smyth (68′), Lars-Jørgen Salvesen (90+10′)

Key Moment: Harvey Vale’s goal on the stroke of half-time put QPR out of reach.

What It Means: QPR break a four-draw sequence with their fourth win; Derby’s winless run stretches to six.

Norwich 0–1 Southampton

🏟️ Carrow Road

Southampton’s first away win of the season came via Kuryu Matsuki’s 54th-minute strike after a spell of Norwich possession that produced no cutting edge. The visitors finished with xG of 2.40 to Norwich’s 1.15 and created the better chances despite the narrow margin. Norwich’s fourth straight league defeat leaves them on nine points and leaves Norwich without a league win in four; Southampton have consecutive 1-0 wins and 16 points after the points deduction.

⚽ Goals: Kuryu Matsuki (54′)

Key Moment: Matsuki’s strike proved decisive.

What It Means: Southampton have their first away win; Norwich’s losing run is four.

Lincoln 0–6 West Ham

🏟️ LNER Stadium

West Ham produced the round’s most emphatic scoreline with a six-goal away win built on a three-goal burst across five minutes either side of half-time. Konstantinos Mavropanos, Edvin Austbö and Jarrod Bowen scored between the 45th and 50th minutes, before Pablo and a Tomáš Souček double completed the rout. The visitors finished with xG of 3.22 to Lincoln’s 0.39, a reflection of total control. West Ham remain unbeaten in eight; Lincoln have now lost three straight.

⚽ Goals: Konstantinos Mavropanos (45′), Edvin Austbö (48′), Jarrod Bowen (50′), Pablo (75′), Tomáš Souček (79′), Tomáš Souček (89′)

Key Moment: West Ham’s three goals in five minutes either side of half-time ended the game as a contest.

What It Means: West Ham extend their unbeaten run to eight; Lincoln suffer a third successive defeat.

⭐ Match of the Round: Cardiff 5–1 Watford

🏟️ Cardiff City Stadium

Cardiff produced their biggest win of the season, running up five against a Watford side sliding through their fourth straight defeat. Jack Moylan opened the scoring from the penalty spot on 11 minutes and added a second on 35, before Matthew Pollock turned into his own net to make it three just before the break. Ollie Tanner’s goal in first-half stoppage time made it four, and Callum Robinson added a fifth late on. Watford’s Hector Kyprianou pulled one back at 87 minutes. The xG split was 3.75 to 1.52, so the margin was not wildly out of line with Cardiff’s chances. The win moves Cardiff to 10 points and gives Brian Barry-Murphy’s side a template for climbing away from trouble.

⚽ Goals: Jack Moylan (11′ pen), Jack Moylan (35′), Matthew Pollock (41′ og), Ollie Tanner (45+5′), Callum Robinson (85′), Hector Kyprianou (87′)

Key Moment: Pollock’s own goal just before half-time made it 3-0 and ended any lingering Watford resistance.

What It Means: Cardiff move to 10 points and finally get a second win; Watford have lost four straight and remain on eight.

⭐ Player of the Week: Jack Moylan (Cardiff)

Moylan opened the scoring from the spot and then added a second 24 minutes later, taking both of his goals well. His two goals took him to five for the season and set the tone for Cardiff’s 5-1 win.

🎯 Decisive Goal of the Week

Neto Borges (Middlesbrough) vs Stoke City — Borges turned into his own net to bring Stoke level, then popped up at the other end in the 90+1 minute to win a chaotic game 3-2 for Middlesbrough.

💪 Performance of the Week

West Ham‘s 6-0 against Lincoln — West Ham’s 6-0 win at Lincoln was the round’s most complete away performance, with three goals in five minutes either side of half-time turning a close first half into a rout. The 3.22 xG underlined total control and kept them unbeaten in eight.

In the Spotlight

Philippe Clement (Norwich) — Philippe Clement’s Norwich side have now lost four consecutive league matches and seven of 10 overall with nine points. The 1-0 home defeat to Southampton was quiet rather than chaotic: Norwich managed 1.15 xG. Norwich’s attacking substitutions did not change the game.

⚽ Championship Top Scorers

👀 Key Fixtures Next Week

• Burnley vs Wolves (Fri 16 Oct 20:00)
• Watford vs Charlton (Sat 17 Oct 12:30)
• Millwall vs Lincoln (Sat 17 Oct 12:30)
• Middlesbrough vs Cardiff (Sat 17 Oct 12:30)
• Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd (Sat 17 Oct 15:00)
• West Brom vs Blackburn (Sat 17 Oct 15:00)
• Derby vs Stoke City (Sat 17 Oct 15:00)
• Norwich vs Portsmouth (Sat 17 Oct 15:00)

🔮 Predictions Review

Correct Results: 9/12

Model Record: 72/162 (44.4%) since 2026-04-14 — spans 2025/26 and 2026/27; 50/117 (42.7%) in 2026/27 alone

Picks and probabilities are as published in that round’s preview. The model is rebuilt every morning, so a figure here can differ from one printed later in the week.

Best Call: The model’s best call was Cardiff to beat Watford at 68.4% confidence, a selection that was already comfortable by half-time.

Worst Call: The biggest miss was Wolves vs Bolton: a 43.7% home lean ended as a 1-3 away win that also turned a 43.7% home lean into a 1-3 away win.

Away calls were the model’s stronger suit this week—it hit all four sub-45% away picks—while home favourites Burnley and Stoke let it down in games that finished draw and away win respectively.

📚 Five Things We Learned

1. West Ham’s 6-0 at Lincoln demonstrated that their early draws were compressing a genuinely potent attack: 29 goals in 10 games and 3.22 xG for this fixture.
2. Bristol City’s 0-1 defeat to Blackburn with 1.98 xG was the week’s clearest case of the scoreline lying about the balance of play.
3. Norwich’s 0-1 reverse to Southampton featured 1.15 xG and no sustained response after the goal, making four straight defeats feel less like variance and more like a pattern.
4. Middlesbrough’s 3-2 win at Stoke, with 2.63 xG and a late winner, showed their eight-game unbeaten run can survive going to 85 minutes level.
5. Swansea’s 90th-minute winner at Millwall, their fourth straight win, and all four of the model’s sub-45% away picks came in.