Gameweek 45 Preview: Competition: Sky Bet League One Dates: Saturday 25 April 2026 Number of Fixtures: 12 Leyton Orient: AWAY vs Blackpool (Saturday, 15:00 BST)
Three down, one to go. Northampton (35 pts), Rotherham (40 pts) and Port Vale (39 pts) have all been mathematically relegated from League One. The final relegation spot remains open: Exeter City sit 21st on 48 points, two behind AFC Wimbledon and three behind Leyton Orient, with Burton Albion and Peterborough also vulnerable on 52. Lincoln City have already sealed the title on 97 points.
Gameweek 45 – Stats & Historical Data
All Fixtures — Head to Head, Form & Historical Positions
League One - Matchday 45 Preview
Season 2025-26 | Powered by 6 seasons of historical data
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Plymouth 3 wins, 0 draws, Port Vale 1 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Plymouth 2-1 Port Vale (xG: 2.0-1.2)
2025-26: Port Vale 0-1 Plymouth (xG: 1.4-0.6)
2022-23: Port Vale 1-3 Plymouth
Luton vs Barnsley - Historical Insights
Barnsley at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 12th with 58 pts → Finished 12th
2023-24: 5th with 75 pts → Finished 6th
2022-23: 4th with 86 pts → Finished 4th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Luton 2 wins, 0 draws, Barnsley 1 wins
Recent Meetings:
2026-27: Luton 2-1 Barnsley (xG: 2.3-1.1)
2025-26: Luton 2-1 Barnsley (xG: 3.2-2.1)
2025-26: Barnsley 5-0 Luton (xG: 2.9-0.3)
Lincoln vs Wycombe - Historical Insights
Lincoln at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 11th with 61 pts → Finished 11th
2023-24: 6th with 74 pts → Finished 7th
2022-23: 11th with 59 pts → Finished 11th
2021-22: 18th with 49 pts → Finished 17th
2020-21: 5th with 76 pts → Finished 5th
Wycombe at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 4th with 84 pts → Finished 5th
2023-24: 11th with 62 pts → Finished 11th
2022-23: 9th with 68 pts → Finished 9th
2021-22: 7th with 80 pts → Finished 6th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Lincoln 3 wins, 3 draws, Wycombe 5 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Lincoln 4-3 Wycombe
2025-26: Wycombe 3-2 Lincoln (xG: 1.7-1.0)
2024-25: Wycombe 1-0 Lincoln
Current League One Table
League One Table
League One
Pos
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
1
Huddersfield
14
8
5
1
28
12
16
29
2
Stockport County
14
8
2
4
26
14
12
26
3
Luton
14
7
3
4
27
21
6
24
4
Oxford United
12
6
5
1
20
11
9
23
5
Plymouth
14
7
2
5
21
19
2
23
6
Reading
13
6
4
3
25
13
12
22
7
Bradford
13
6
4
3
10
8
2
22
8
Cambridge United
14
5
6
3
21
21
0
21
9
Sheffield Wednesday
13
5
5
3
22
14
8
20
10
Leicester
13
5
4
4
22
19
3
19
11
Mansfield Town
13
5
4
4
20
18
2
19
12
Milton Keynes Dons
13
4
6
3
22
20
2
18
13
Wycombe
13
4
6
3
21
23
-2
18
14
Leyton Orient
13
5
2
6
19
14
5
17
15
Burton Albion
14
4
5
5
18
21
-3
17
16
Stevenage
12
4
4
4
17
13
4
16
17
Notts County
12
3
5
4
13
14
-1
14
18
AFC Wimbledon
13
3
4
6
9
21
-12
13
19
Blackpool
12
3
3
6
17
21
-4
12
20
Doncaster
13
3
3
7
14
22
-8
12
21
Wigan
14
3
2
9
11
22
-11
11
22
Peterborough
13
2
4
7
11
23
-12
10
23
Barnsley
12
2
3
7
12
22
-10
9
24
Bromley
13
2
3
8
13
33
-20
9
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Updated: 04 Nov 2026, 4:06 PM
Leyton Orient at Matchday 45 — Through The Years
Leyton Orient Historical Comparison
Historical Position Comparison
Leyton Orient at Matchday 45
Season
Pos
Pts
GD
xGD
Form
Final
2026-27(now)
14th
17
+5
-4.2
DWLLW
-
2025-26
20th
51
-12
-9.6
LLDLL
20th
2024-25
6th
75
+21
-
WWWWW
6th
2023-24
12th
62
-4
-
LWDLL
12th
Data from 6 League One seasons (2019–2025)
Key Storylines This Week
What to Watch For
Final relegation spot: The fight for survival: Exeter City (48 points) occupy the drop zone, with AFC Wimbledon (50), Leyton Orient (51), Burton Albion (52) and Peterborough (52) just above them.
Lincoln’s title procession: Lincoln were confirmed champions on 97 points, nine clear of Cardiff City with two matches remaining.
Playoff race tightens: Bolton (74), Bradford (73), Stockport County (71, game in hand), Stevenage (71), Luton (68) and Plymouth (67) are separated by seven points for positions 3–6.
League One Top Scorers
Top Scorers Heading into Gameweek 45
1.
Dominic Ballard (Leyton Orient)
22
2.
Jayden Wareham (Exeter City)
19
3.
Kyle Wootton (Stockport County)
18
4.
Lorent Tolaj (Plymouth)
16
5.
Jack Marriott (Reading)
16
← scroll →
Top Assists
Top Assist Providers
League One Top Assists
Rank
Player
Team
Assists
1
Reyes Cleary
Barnsley
13
2
Ollie Tanner
Cardiff
12
3
Ilmari Niskanen
Exeter City
12
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⭐ Match of the Week: Burton Albion vs Exeter City
Saturday, 15:00 BST
Burton Albion host Exeter City in a fixture with clear relegation implications. Exeter sit 21st on 48 points and need points to avoid falling further behind. Burton are on 52, comfortable but not safe – a defeat could drag them back into the fight. For Exeter, a failure to win would be a major blow.
Head to Head
Burton Albion vs Exeter City
Last 5 league meetings
Burton Albion0Wins
3Draws
Exeter City2Wins
Total Goals: 3 - 5
Date
Home
Score
Away
xG
25 Apr 2026 2025-26
Burton Albion
1 - 1
Exeter City
2.3 - 1.1
03 Mar 2026 2025-26
Exeter City
1 - 1
Burton Albion
-
18 Apr 2025 2024-25
Exeter City
0 - 0
Burton Albion
-
21 Dec 2024 2024-25
Burton Albion
1 - 2
Exeter City
-
16 Mar 2024 2023-24
Exeter City
1 - 0
Burton Albion
-
Recent Form Comparison
Team not found: Exeter City
xG Trends
Burton Albion - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Exeter City - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Goals by Period
Burton Albion - Goals by Time Period 2026/2027
Best Scoring Period
16-30 mins
Most Vulnerable Period
76-90+ mins
Exeter City - Goals by Time Period 2026/2027
Best Scoring Period
0-15 mins
Most Vulnerable Period
0-15 mins
Historical Position at Matchday 45
No fixture found for Burton Albion on Saturday 25th April 2026.
No fixture found for Exeter City on Saturday 25th April 2026.
Player to Watch
Jayden Wareham — Exeter City
Jayden Wareham is Exeter’s leading scorer with 19 goals in 44 League One appearances. His movement and finishing will be key if Exeter are to breach a Burton defence that has kept things relatively tight. The visitors’ survival hopes rest heavily on his form.
Jayden Wareham
Wycombe • F • 2026-2027 Season
9 apps6 goals1 assists7.40 avg rating
BTP Verdict
Expect a tense, low-scoring contest. Exeter will press hard but Burton’s experience should see them edge a narrow home win, leaving Exeter’s fate uncertain.
Prediction
Burton Albion 1-1 Exeter City
One to Watch
Jayden Wareham
Key Battle
Exeter must win or close to it; Wareham is their focal point
Leyton Orient vs Blackpool — Saturday, 15:00 BST
The Opposition: Leyton Orient travel to Blackpool, who sit 16th on 54 points with little to play for. Blackpool’s home form has been inconsistent, but they remain a compact, organised side. They will defend deep and threaten on the counter.
Key Battle: Dominic Ballard’s finishing, with 22 league goals, will test Blackpool’s defensive shape. Blackpool will aim to deny him space in the box.
What We Think: A draw would strengthen Leyton Orient’s safety case, but a win would virtually seal their League One status. However, Orient are not yet mathematically safe – if they lose and both Exeter and Wimbledon win, they could still finish 21st in an unlikely but possible edge-case scenario.
Head to Head
Leyton Orient vs Blackpool
Last 5 league meetings
Leyton Orient3Wins
1Draws
Blackpool1Wins
Total Goals: 8 - 3
Date
Home
Score
Away
xG
17 Oct 2026 2026-27
Leyton Orient
2 - 0
Blackpool
2.3 - 0.9
25 Apr 2026 2025-26
Blackpool
1 - 0
Leyton Orient
2.5 - 1.1
22 Nov 2025 2025-26
Leyton Orient
1 - 1
Blackpool
1.3 - 1.4
15 Mar 2025 2024-25
Blackpool
1 - 2
Leyton Orient
-
09 Nov 2024 2024-25
Leyton Orient
3 - 0
Blackpool
-
Recent Form Comparison
Form Comparison - Last 6 Games
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
Form
1
Leyton Orient
6
2
1
3
6
5
+1
7
LDWLLW
2
Blackpool
6
1
1
4
6
12
-6
4
LLLWLD
Leyton Orient - Recent Results
L0-2vs Plymouth (H)
D0-0vs Bradford (A)
W2-0vs Blackpool (H)
L0-1vs Reading (A)
L1-2vs Burton Albion (A)
W3-0vs Cambridge United (H)
Blackpool - Recent Results
L2-4vs Plymouth (H)
L0-1vs Cambridge United (A)
L0-2vs Leyton Orient (A)
W2-0vs Milton Keynes Dons (H)
L1-4vs Mansfield Town (H)
D1-1vs Sheffield Wednesday (A)
xG Trends
Leyton Orient - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Blackpool - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Goals by Period
Leyton Orient - Goals by Time Period 2026/2027
Best Scoring Period
31-45 mins
Most Vulnerable Period
46-60 mins
Blackpool - Goals by Time Period 2026/2027
Best Scoring Period
16-30 mins
Most Vulnerable Period
76-90+ mins
Historical Position at Matchday 45
No fixture found for Leyton Orient on Saturday 25th April 2026.
No fixture found for Blackpool on Saturday 25th April 2026.
Leyton Orient Recent Form
Leyton Orient - Recent League Form
WLLWDL
Player to Watch
Dominic Ballard — Leyton Orient
Dominic Ballard leads League One with 22 goals in 38 appearances, plus four assists. The Leyton Orient striker has been a constant threat, tracked by BTP as a standout performer in a promoted side.
No season statistics found for Dominic Ballard in 2026-2027.
BTP Verdict
Leyton Orient have overachieved this season. A result this weekend should put the final tick on safety, capping an impressive campaign.
Prediction
Blackpool 1-1 Leyton Orient
One to Watch
Dominic Ballard
Key Battle
Ballard’s finishing vs Blackpool’s defensive shape
BTP Predictions
Our Predictions
Season record: 28/64 (44%)
Doncaster 1-0 Stevenage
Stockport County 2-1 Peterborough
Huddersfield 2-1 Mansfield Town
Cardiff 2-0 Northampton
Wigan 2-1 AFC Wimbledon
Rotherham 1-2 Reading
Burton Albion 2-1 Exeter City
Bradford 1-0 Bolton
Blackpool 0-1 Leyton Orient
Plymouth 2-0 Port Vale
Luton 0-1 Barnsley
Lincoln 2-1 Wycombe
🤖 BTP Machine Learning Model — League One GW45
The BTP ML model generates probability estimates for every League One fixture. The model is trained on ~3,300 matches across six seasons (2019/20–2024/25), using rolling form, goals data, league position and per-team player-quality features. It outputs a probability for each outcome — home win, draw, away win — for every upcoming fixture.
For the full methodology, results and an honest assessment of what the model can and cannot do, see our ML Model Explainer.
How to read these charts: Each bar shows the model’s probability for home win (blue), draw (grey), and away win (red). The longer the segment, the more likely that outcome. Position bands: 1–3 promotion, 4–7 play-offs, 8–20 mid-table, 21–24 relegation. These are not betting tips — they are a data-driven perspective based on form and league position.
Doncaster vs Stevenage
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a narrow lean toward Doncaster at 42%. Full split: home 42% / draw 23% / away 35%.
Stockport County vs Peterborough
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Stockport County at 52%. Full split: home 52% / draw 17% / away 31%.
Huddersfield vs Mansfield Town
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Huddersfield at 51%. Full split: home 51% / draw 22% / away 27%.
Cardiff vs Northampton
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a clear lean toward Cardiff at 71%. Full split: home 71% / draw 18% / away 11%.
Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Wigan at 47%. Full split: home 47% / draw 21% / away 32%.
Rotherham vs Reading
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Reading at 50%. Full split: home 33% / draw 17% / away 50%.
Burton Albion vs Exeter City
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Burton Albion at 54%. Full split: home 54% / draw 20% / away 26%.
Bradford vs Bolton
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a narrow lean toward Bradford at 42%. Full split: home 42% / draw 18% / away 40%.
Blackpool vs Leyton Orient
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a narrow lean toward Leyton Orient at 44%. Full split: home 37% / draw 19% / away 44%.
Plymouth vs Port Vale
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Plymouth at 58%. Full split: home 58% / draw 26% / away 17%.
Luton vs Barnsley
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a narrow lean toward Barnsley at 40%. Full split: home 38% / draw 22% / away 40%.
Lincoln vs Wycombe
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Lincoln at 49%. Full split: home 49% / draw 21% / away 30%.
🤖 Model Notes — GW45
Model Notes — GW45: The current model is leagueone_lr_v1_cal, a Platt-calibrated logistic regression with player-quality features, deployed 17 April 2026. Trained on ~3,300 L1 matches across 2019/20-2024/25. Walk-forward validation showed a 2.6% better log-loss than the previous RF baseline. This week the tightest game is Stockport-Peterborough, while Cardiff-Northampton is the clearest pick.
Model: leagueone_lr_v1_cal — Platt-calibrated Logistic Regression with player-quality features, trained on ~3,300 League One matches (2019/20–2024/25). 2.6% better log-loss than the previous Random Forest baseline on walk-forward. Full methodology here.
Check back after the weekend for our full Gameweek 45 League One review with match reports and updated standings!
Doncaster14th
Stevenage6th
Stockport County3rd
Peterborough18th
Huddersfield9th
Mansfield Town10th
Cardiff2nd
Northampton24th
Wigan16th
AFC Wimbledon19th
Rotherham23rd
Reading12th
Burton Albion17th
Exeter City21st
Bradford4th
Bolton5th
Blackpool13th
Leyton Orient20th
Plymouth8th
Port Vale22nd
Luton7th
Barnsley15th
Lincoln1st
Wycombe11th
