Gameweek 45 Preview: Competition: Sky Bet Championship Dates: Saturday 25 – Sunday 26 April 2026 Number of Fixtures: 12 Hull City: AWAY vs Charlton (Saturday, 12:30 BST)
With one fixture already resolved — Southampton defeating Blackburn 3-0 on 14 April — Matchday 45 presents two critical contests affecting the final playoff place. Hull City travel to Charlton needing a win to keep pace, while Wrexham face a difficult trip to already-crowned champions Coventry. Both sides are level on 70 points, separated only by goal difference.
Gameweek 45 – Stats & Historical Data
All Fixtures — Head to Head, Form & Historical Positions
Championship - Matchday 45 Preview
Season 2025-26 | Powered by 6 seasons of historical data
Wrexham 3-2 Coventry (xG: 1.4-1.6) 31 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Matchday 45 - Historical Insights
Playoff Race: Teams in 6th place at matchday 45 have averaged 71 points historically.
Relegation Battle: Teams in 22nd at matchday 45 have averaged 47 points historically.
Hull City at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 22nd with 48 pts → Finished 21st
2023-24: 7th with 70 pts → Finished 7th
2022-23: 14th with 57 pts → Finished 15th
2021-22: 19th with 50 pts → Finished 20th
2019-20: 24th with 45 pts → Finished 24th
Southampton vs Blackburn - Historical Insights
Southampton at Matchday 45:
2023-24: 4th with 84 pts → Finished 4th
Blackburn at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 8th with 65 pts → Finished 7th
2023-24: 19th with 50 pts → Finished 19th
2022-23: 9th with 66 pts → Finished 7th
2021-22: 9th with 66 pts → Finished 8th
2020-21: 15th with 54 pts → Finished 15th
2019-20: 10th with 63 pts → Finished 11th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Southampton 2 wins, 1 draws, Blackburn 1 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Southampton 3-0 Blackburn (xG: 2.5-0.2)
2025-26: Blackburn 2-1 Southampton (xG: 3.2-1.7)
2023-24: Blackburn 0-0 Southampton (xG: 1.0-1.1)
Leicester vs Millwall - Historical Insights
Leicester at Matchday 45:
2023-24: 1st with 97 pts → Finished 1st
Millwall at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 7th with 66 pts → Finished 8th
2023-24: 16th with 56 pts → Finished 13th
2022-23: 6th with 68 pts → Finished 8th
2021-22: 8th with 69 pts → Finished 9th
2020-21: 11th with 62 pts → Finished 11th
2019-20: 9th with 65 pts → Finished 8th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Leicester 1 wins, 1 draws, Millwall 2 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Leicester 1-1 Millwall (xG: 0.9-1.9)
2025-26: Millwall 1-0 Leicester (xG: 1.5-0.8)
2023-24: Millwall 1-0 Leicester (xG: 0.6-0.9)
West Brom vs Ipswich - Historical Insights
West Brom at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 10th with 61 pts → Finished 9th
2023-24: 6th with 72 pts → Finished 5th
2022-23: 8th with 66 pts → Finished 9th
2021-22: 10th with 64 pts → Finished 10th
2019-20: 2nd with 82 pts → Finished 2nd
Ipswich at Matchday 45:
2023-24: 2nd with 93 pts → Finished 2nd
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): West Brom 1 wins, 2 draws, Ipswich 1 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: West Brom 0-0 Ipswich (xG: 1.3-0.8)
2025-26: Ipswich 1-0 West Brom (xG: 2.2-0.4)
2023-24: Ipswich 2-2 West Brom (xG: 1.9-0.4)
Middlesbrough vs Watford - Historical Insights
Middlesbrough at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 9th with 64 pts → Finished 10th
2023-24: 8th with 66 pts → Finished 8th
2022-23: 4th with 74 pts → Finished 4th
2021-22: 7th with 70 pts → Finished 7th
2020-21: 10th with 64 pts → Finished 10th
2019-20: 19th with 50 pts → Finished 18th
Watford at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 13th with 56 pts → Finished 14th
2023-24: 14th with 56 pts → Finished 15th
2022-23: 13th with 60 pts → Finished 11th
2020-21: 2nd with 88 pts → Finished 2nd
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Middlesbrough 4 wins, 1 draws, Watford 5 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Middlesbrough 5-1 Watford (xG: 2.1-0.7)
2025-26: Watford 3-0 Middlesbrough (xG: 0.8-0.8)
2024-25: Middlesbrough 0-1 Watford (xG: 0.9-1.6)
Charlton vs Hull City - Historical Insights
Charlton at Matchday 45:
2019-20: 21st with 48 pts → Finished 23rd
Hull City at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 22nd with 48 pts → Finished 21st
2023-24: 7th with 70 pts → Finished 7th
2022-23: 14th with 57 pts → Finished 15th
2021-22: 19th with 50 pts → Finished 20th
2019-20: 24th with 45 pts → Finished 24th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Charlton 2 wins, 2 draws, Hull City 0 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Charlton 2-1 Hull City (xG: 0.4-0.5)
2025-26: Hull City 1-1 Charlton (xG: 1.1-2.0)
2019-20: Hull City 0-1 Charlton
Birmingham vs Bristol City - Historical Insights
Birmingham at Matchday 45:
2023-24: 22nd with 47 pts → Finished 22nd
2022-23: 17th with 53 pts → Finished 17th
2021-22: 21st with 47 pts → Finished 21st
2020-21: 18th with 52 pts → Finished 18th
2019-20: 20th with 50 pts → Finished 21st
Bristol City at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 5th with 67 pts → Finished 6th
2023-24: 11th with 62 pts → Finished 11th
2022-23: 15th with 56 pts → Finished 14th
2021-22: 18th with 55 pts → Finished 18th
2020-21: 19th with 51 pts → Finished 19th
2019-20: 11th with 62 pts → Finished 12th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Birmingham 6 wins, 2 draws, Bristol City 3 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Bristol City 1-0 Birmingham (xG: 0.3-0.7)
2023-24: Birmingham 0-0 Bristol City (xG: 0.1-0.9)
2023-24: Bristol City 0-2 Birmingham (xG: 0.8-1.4)
Sheffield Utd vs Preston - Historical Insights
Sheffield Utd at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 3rd with 91 pts → Finished 3rd
2022-23: 2nd with 88 pts → Finished 2nd
2021-22: 5th with 72 pts → Finished 5th
Preston at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 20th with 49 pts → Finished 20th
2023-24: 10th with 63 pts → Finished 10th
2022-23: 11th with 63 pts → Finished 12th
2021-22: 14th with 61 pts → Finished 13th
2020-21: 13th with 58 pts → Finished 13th
2019-20: 8th with 65 pts → Finished 9th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Sheffield Utd 4 wins, 2 draws, Preston 1 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Preston 3-2 Sheffield Utd (xG: 1.6-2.4)
2024-25: Sheffield Utd 1-0 Preston (xG: 1.4-0.3)
2024-25: Preston 0-2 Sheffield Utd (xG: 0.6-1.0)
Norwich vs Swansea - Historical Insights
Norwich at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 14th with 54 pts → Finished 13th
2023-24: 5th with 73 pts → Finished 6th
2022-23: 12th with 62 pts → Finished 13th
2020-21: 1st with 96 pts → Finished 1st
Swansea at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 11th with 60 pts → Finished 11th
2023-24: 13th with 57 pts → Finished 14th
2022-23: 10th with 63 pts → Finished 10th
2021-22: 15th with 61 pts → Finished 15th
2020-21: 4th with 80 pts → Finished 4th
2019-20: 7th with 67 pts → Finished 6th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Norwich 3 wins, 1 draws, Swansea 5 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Swansea 2-1 Norwich (xG: 0.4-1.2)
2024-25: Norwich 5-1 Swansea (xG: 3.0-1.3)
2024-25: Swansea 1-0 Norwich (xG: 0.7-1.1)
QPR vs Derby - Historical Insights
QPR at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 15th with 53 pts → Finished 15th
2023-24: 17th with 53 pts → Finished 18th
2022-23: 20th with 50 pts → Finished 21st
2021-22: 12th with 63 pts → Finished 11th
2020-21: 9th with 65 pts → Finished 9th
2019-20: 14th with 57 pts → Finished 14th
Derby at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 19th with 49 pts → Finished 19th
2021-22: 17th with 55 pts → Finished 17th
2020-21: 22nd with 43 pts → Finished 22nd
2019-20: 12th with 61 pts → Finished 10th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): QPR 5 wins, 1 draws, Derby 3 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Derby 1-0 QPR (xG: 1.7-0.4)
2024-25: QPR 4-0 Derby (xG: 0.9-0.6)
2024-25: Derby 2-0 QPR (xG: 1.0-0.5)
Stoke City vs Portsmouth - Historical Insights
Stoke City at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 18th with 50 pts → Finished 18th
2023-24: 18th with 53 pts → Finished 17th
2022-23: 16th with 53 pts → Finished 16th
2021-22: 13th with 61 pts → Finished 14th
2020-21: 14th with 57 pts → Finished 14th
2019-20: 17th with 53 pts → Finished 16th
Portsmouth at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 16th with 53 pts → Finished 16th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Stoke City 2 wins, 0 draws, Portsmouth 1 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Portsmouth 0-1 Stoke City (xG: 1.8-0.9)
2024-25: Portsmouth 3-1 Stoke City (xG: 2.0-0.7)
2024-25: Stoke City 6-1 Portsmouth (xG: 2.5-1.3)
Oxford United vs Sheffield Wednesday - Historical Insights
Oxford United at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 17th with 52 pts → Finished 17th
Sheffield Wednesday at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 12th with 57 pts → Finished 12th
2023-24: 20th with 50 pts → Finished 20th
2020-21: 21st with 46 pts → Finished 21st
2019-20: 16th with 56 pts → Finished 17th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Oxford United 2 wins, 0 draws, Sheffield Wednesday 1 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Sheffield Wednesday 1-2 Oxford United (xG: 1.2-1.0)
2024-25: Sheffield Wednesday 0-1 Oxford United (xG: 1.0-1.1)
2024-25: Oxford United 1-3 Sheffield Wednesday (xG: 1.4-1.9)
Coventry vs Wrexham - Historical Insights
Coventry at Matchday 45:
2024-25: 6th with 66 pts → Finished 5th
2023-24: 9th with 64 pts → Finished 9th
2022-23: 5th with 69 pts → Finished 5th
2021-22: 11th with 63 pts → Finished 12th
2020-21: 17th with 52 pts → Finished 16th
Head to Head (Last 6 seasons): Coventry 0 wins, 0 draws, Wrexham 1 wins
Recent Meetings:
2025-26: Wrexham 3-2 Coventry (xG: 1.4-1.6)
Current Championship Table
Championship Table
Championship Table
Pos
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
1
Coventry
44
26
11
7
90
44
+46
89
2
Ipswich
44
22
14
8
75
45
+30
80
3
Millwall
45
23
11
11
62
49
+13
80
4
Middlesbrough
45
22
13
10
67
45
+22
79
5
Southampton
44
21
13
10
77
53
+24
76
6
Hull City
45
20
11
14
68
64
+4
71
7
Wrexham
44
19
13
12
66
60
+6
70
8
Derby
44
19
9
16
63
55
+8
66
9
Norwich
44
19
7
18
61
53
+8
64
10
Birmingham
44
16
12
16
54
54
0
60
11
Swansea
44
17
9
18
53
57
-4
60
12
Bristol City
44
16
11
17
56
57
-1
59
13
QPR
44
16
10
18
59
67
-8
58
14
Sheffield Utd
44
17
6
21
62
62
0
57
15
Watford
45
14
15
16
53
58
-5
57
16
Preston
44
14
15
15
51
57
-6
57
17
Stoke City
44
15
10
19
50
51
-1
55
18
West Brom
45
13
14
18
47
56
-9
53
19
Blackburn
45
13
13
19
42
55
-13
52
20
Charlton
45
12
15
18
42
55
-13
51
21
Portsmouth
44
13
12
19
45
62
-17
51
22
Oxford United
44
10
14
20
41
56
-15
44
23
Leicester
45
11
16
18
57
68
-11
43
24
Sheffield Wednesday
44
1
12
31
26
84
-58
-3
← scroll →
Hull City at Matchday 45 — Through The Years
Hull City Historical Comparison
Historical Position Comparison
Hull City at Matchday 45
Season
Pos
Pts
GD
xGD
Form
Final
2025-26(now)
7th
70
+3
-19.2
DLDDL
-
2024-25
22nd
48
-10
-5.3
LDLWL
21st
2023-24
7th
70
+9
+8.0
DWDWD
7th
2022-23
14th
57
-10
+0.0
WDLWD
15th
2021-22
19th
50
-13
+0.0
WWLWL
20th
2019-20
24th
45
-27
+0.0
LLLLL
24th
Data from 6 Championship seasons (2019–2025)
Key Storylines This Week
What to Watch For
Sixth-Place Tussle: Hull face Charlton away and then Norwich at home; Wrexham travel to Coventry then host Middlesbrough. Both on 70 points, Wrexham ahead on goal difference.
Champions’ Role: Coventry have secured the title with 89 points, but their home encounter with Wrexham carries significant weight for the playoff chase.
Automatic Promotion Race: Ipswich have a game in hand on Millwall; both on 79 points. Both need wins to stay in contention for the top two.
Championship Top Scorers
Top Scorers Heading into Gameweek 45
1.
Žan Vipotnik (Swansea)
22
2.
Haji Wright (Coventry)
17
3.
Oliver McBurnie (Hull City)
15
4.
Jack Clarke (Ipswich)
15
5.
Josh Windass (Wrexham)
14
← scroll →
Top Assists
Top Assist Providers
Championship Top Assists
Rank
Player
Team
Assists
1
Gustavo Hamer
Sheffield Utd
11
2
Sorba Thomas
Stoke City
10
3
Leo Scienza
Southampton
10
← scroll →
⭐ Match of the Week: Coventry vs Wrexham
Sunday, 12:00 BST
Coventry versus Wrexham is the match of the week because the champions host a side scrapping for sixth place. Wrexham are at a positional disadvantage before kickoff: level with Hull on 70, but Hull are away at the softer fixture (Charlton). A Wrexham win preserves the GD cushion regardless of what Hull do; any other result hands Hull control of the race if they take three points at Charlton. There is no clean ‘three points guarantees sixth’ outcome — Wrexham need their own result, not just a Hull slip.
Head to Head
Coventry vs Wrexham
Last 1 league meetings
Coventry0Wins
0Draws
Wrexham1Wins
Total Goals: 2 - 3
Date
Home
Score
Away
xG
31 Oct 2025 2025-26
Wrexham
3 - 2
Coventry
1.4 - 1.6
Recent Form Comparison
Form Comparison - Last 6 Games
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
Form
1
Coventry
6
3
3
0
12
4
+8
12
WWDDDW
2
Wrexham
6
3
1
2
8
10
-2
10
WDLLWW
Coventry - Recent Results
W3-0vs Swansea (A)
W3-2vs Derby (H)
D0-0vs Hull City (A)
D0-0vs Sheffield Wednesday (H)
D1-1vs Blackburn (A)
W5-1vs Portsmouth (H)
Wrexham - Recent Results
W2-1vs Sheffield Utd (A)
D2-2vs West Brom (A)
L1-5vs Southampton (H)
L0-2vs Birmingham (A)
W2-0vs Stoke City (H)
W1-0vs Oxford United (A)
xG Trends
Coventry - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Wrexham - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Goals by Period
Coventry - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Best Scoring Period
31-45 mins
Most Vulnerable Period
61-75 mins
Wrexham - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Best Scoring Period
76-90+ mins
Most Vulnerable Period
76-90+ mins
Historical Position at Matchday 45
Historical Position Comparison
Coventry - Sunday 26th April 2026
Season
Pos
Pts
GD
xGD
Form
Final
2025-26(now)
1st
89
+46
+34.9
WDDDW
-
2024-25
6th
66
+4
+17.6
WDWLL
5th
2023-24
9th
64
+12
+6.9
LLLDL
9th
2022-23
5th
69
+12
+0.0
DWDWW
5th
2021-22
11th
63
+1
+0.0
WWLDL
12th
2020-21
17th
52
-17
+0.0
WWWLD
16th
Historical Position Comparison
Wrexham - Sunday 26th April 2026
Season
Pos
Pts
GD
xGD
Form
Final
2025-26(now)
6th
70
+6
-6.1
DLLWW
-
Player to Watch
Josh Windass — Wrexham
Josh Windass leads Wrexham’s attack with 14 goals and 5 assists in 40 appearances. He scored in their previous match at Oxford and will need to produce something similar against a Coventry defence that has conceded only 44 goals all season.
Josh Windass
Wrexham • M • 2025-2026 Season
40 apps14 goals5 assists6.95 avg rating
BTP Verdict
A realistic outcome is a Coventry win, given their home record and Wrexham’s inconsistent recent form. Anything less than a Wrexham win plus a Hull slip-up swings the sixth-place race toward Hull going into MD46, given Hull’s softer remaining fixture list.
Prediction
Coventry 2-0 Wrexham
One to Watch
Josh Windass
Key Battle
Wrexham need a result at a Coventry side playing for confidence; Windass the focal point in attack
Hull City vs Charlton — Saturday, 12:30 BST
The Opposition: Charlton sit 21st on 50 points, six clear of 22nd-placed Oxford but not yet mathematically safe with two fixtures left — a defeat here combined with Oxford winning out would reopen the relegation question. Recent form: defeats in four of the last six, including a 2-1 home loss to Ipswich midweek. Likely a defensive shape against Hull.
Key Battle: Hull’s attacking threat, led by Oliver McBurnie, against Charlton’s defensive organisation. McBurnie has 15 goals and 7 assists this season and scored at Leicester last week; Charlton will need to contain his physical presence.
What We Think: Hull face an opponent still scrapping for safety rather than a side already checked out. The model gives them a 40.6% chance of an away win, the highest probability in their recent matches. They must convert this opportunity to keep pressure on Wrexham.
Head to Head
Hull City vs Charlton
Last 4 league meetings
Hull City0Wins
2Draws
Charlton2Wins
Total Goals: 4 - 6
Date
Home
Score
Away
xG
25 Apr 2026 2025-26
Charlton
2 - 1
Hull City
0.4 - 0.5
25 Oct 2025 2025-26
Hull City
1 - 1
Charlton
1.1 - 2.0
20 Jun 2020 2019-20
Hull City
0 - 1
Charlton
-
13 Dec 2019 2019-20
Charlton
2 - 2
Hull City
-
Recent Form Comparison
Form Comparison - Last 6 Games
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
Form
1
Charlton
6
1
2
3
7
9
-2
5
LDLDLW
2
Hull City
6
0
4
2
6
8
-2
4
DDLDDL
Hull City - Recent Results
D1-1vs Oxford United (A)
D0-0vs Coventry (H)
L1-2vs Sheffield Utd (A)
D1-1vs Birmingham (H)
D2-2vs Leicester (A)
L1-2vs Charlton (A)
Charlton - Recent Results
L1-2vs Bristol City (H)
D1-1vs Watford (A)
L1-2vs Preston (H)
D1-1vs Sheffield Wednesday (A)
L1-2vs Ipswich (H)
W2-1vs Hull City (H)
xG Trends
Hull City - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Charlton - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Goals by Period
Hull City - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Best Scoring Period
31-45 mins
Most Vulnerable Period
76-90+ mins
Charlton - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Best Scoring Period
76-90+ mins
Most Vulnerable Period
76-90+ mins
Historical Position at Matchday 45
Historical Position Comparison
Hull City - Saturday 25th April 2026
Season
Pos
Pts
GD
xGD
Form
Final
2025-26(now)
7th
70
+3
-19.2
DLDDL
-
2024-25
22nd
48
-10
-5.3
LDLWL
21st
2023-24
7th
70
+9
+8.0
DWDWD
7th
2022-23
14th
57
-10
+0.0
WDLWD
15th
2021-22
19th
50
-13
+0.0
WWLWL
20th
2019-20
24th
45
-27
+0.0
LLLLL
24th
Historical Position Comparison
Charlton - Saturday 25th April 2026
Season
Pos
Pts
GD
xGD
Form
Final
2025-26(now)
19th
53
-12
-15.1
DLDLW
-
2019-20
21st
48
-11
+0.0
LLLDD
23rd
Hull City Recent Form
Hull City - Recent League Form
LDDLDD
Player to Watch
Oliver McBurnie — Hull City
Oliver McBurnie is Hull’s top scorer with 15 goals and 7 assists in 36 appearances. He scored at Leicester last week and provides a physical presence up front, capable of holding the ball and bringing others into play.
Oliver McBurnie
Hull City • F • 2025-2026 Season
37 apps15 goals7 assists6.96 avg rating
BTP Verdict
A win at Charlton opens a clear path for Hull: they would go level on points with Wrexham but with a home fixture against Norwich to come. Defeat would leave them relying on Wrexham dropping points in their final two matches.
Prediction
Charlton 0-1 Hull City
One to Watch
Oliver McBurnie
Key Battle
McBurnie’s movement vs the Charlton back line
BTP Predictions
Our Predictions
Season record: 21/61 (34%)
Southampton 2-0 Blackburn
Leicester 2-1 Millwall
West Brom 1-0 Ipswich
Middlesbrough 2-1 Watford
Charlton 0-1 Hull City
Birmingham 1-0 Bristol City
Sheffield Utd 2-1 Preston
Norwich 2-1 Swansea
QPR 1-0 Derby
Stoke City 2-1 Portsmouth
Oxford United 2-0 Sheffield Wednesday
Coventry 2-0 Wrexham
🤖 BTP Machine Learning Model — Championship GW45
The BTP ML model generates probability estimates for every Championship fixture. The model is a Platt-calibrated logistic regression with player-quality features (goals_logreg_v1_cal), trained across six seasons (2019/20–2024/25), using rolling form, goals data, league position and per-team player-rating signals. It outputs a probability for each outcome — home win, draw, away win — for every upcoming fixture.
For the full methodology, results and an honest assessment of what the model can and cannot do, see our ML Model Explainer.
How to read these charts: Each bar shows the model’s probability for home win (blue), draw (grey), and away win (red). The longer the segment, the more likely that outcome. Position bands: 1–2 automatic promotion, 3–6 play-offs, 7–18 mid-table, 19–24 relegation. These are not betting tips — they are a data-driven perspective based on form and league position.
Southampton vs Blackburn
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Southampton at 60%. Full split: home 60% / draw 23% / away 17%.
Leicester vs Millwall
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Leicester at 48%. Full split: home 48% / draw 24% / away 29%.
West Brom vs Ipswich
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a narrow lean toward West Brom at 39%. Full split: home 39% / draw 26% / away 35%.
Middlesbrough vs Watford
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Middlesbrough at 54%. Full split: home 54% / draw 19% / away 27%.
Charlton vs Hull City
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a narrow lean toward Hull City at 41%. Full split: home 36% / draw 24% / away 41%.
Birmingham vs Bristol City
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a narrow lean toward Birmingham at 41%. Full split: home 41% / draw 24% / away 35%.
Sheffield Utd vs Preston
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Sheffield Utd at 53%. Full split: home 53% / draw 20% / away 27%.
Norwich vs Swansea
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Norwich at 50%. Full split: home 50% / draw 21% / away 29%.
QPR vs Derby
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a narrow lean toward QPR at 43%. Full split: home 43% / draw 23% / away 34%.
Stoke City vs Portsmouth
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Stoke City at 49%. Full split: home 49% / draw 24% / away 27%.
Oxford United vs Sheffield Wednesday
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a moderate lean toward Oxford United at 59%. Full split: home 59% / draw 22% / away 19%.
Coventry vs Wrexham
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model has a clear lean toward Coventry at 67%. Full split: home 67% / draw 21% / away 12%.
🤖 Model Notes — GW45
The model is a Platt-calibrated logistic regression using player-quality features (goals_logreg_v1_cal), trained on Championship data from 2019/20 through 2024/25. This week, the fixtures with the widest probability gaps are Coventry-Wrexham and Oxford-Sheffield Wednesday, while Middlesbrough-Watford is the most evenly matched.
Model: Logistic Regression, trained on 3,266 Championship matches (2019/20–2024/25). Log loss 1.064 vs baseline 1.073. Full methodology here.
Check back after the weekend for our full Gameweek 45 Championship review with match reports and updated standings!
This site is a hobby project run by a former healthcare professional and computing graduate who likes football and data. There's no monetisation agenda, no ads, and no ambition to become the next big football media brand.
What there is: ML-backed match previews, honest accountability when the model gets it wrong, and analysis covering the Championship, League One and WSL that tries to be genuinely data-driven rather than just opinion dressed up in numbers.
Hull City season ticket holder and Leyton Orient follower — both covered on the site, no bias applied.
Posts go up most days during the season. The model's predictions are published before kick-off and the results tracked openly — good weeks and bad ones.
Southampton5th
Blackburn20th
Leicester23rd
Millwall3rd
West Brom18th
Ipswich2nd
Middlesbrough4th
Watford16th
Charlton19th
Hull City7th
Birmingham10th
Bristol City12th
Sheffield Utd14th
Preston15th
Norwich9th
Swansea11th
QPR13th
Derby8th
Stoke City17th
Portsmouth21st
Oxford United22nd
Sheffield Wednesday24th
Coventry1st
Wrexham6th
