Leicester v Hull City — Sixth-Place Knife-Fight Meets Relegation Reckoning
Hull City travel to the King Power on Tuesday night holding sixth place by a two-point cushion over Wrexham — who have the better goal difference and are a win away from bouncing Hull into the chasing pack. Leicester, 23rd on 41 points after their PSR deduction, need a miracle run to stay up. Both sides arrive without form, but only one can afford to leave empty-handed.
What’s On It
For Hull — The Tiebreaker Duel
Hull are 69 points, +4 GD; Wrexham 67 points, +5 GD — Hull two clear but Wrexham fractionally better where a tie would land. Hull swept the H2H this season (2-0 home in December, 2-1 away in March), so a points tie goes Hull’s way on the old convention even though EFL rules formally treat tied teams as sharing the spot. Wrexham travel to Oxford at the same kickoff tonight: a Wrexham win plus a Hull loss and the gap vanishes. A Hull win leaves the cushion at five.
For Leicester — The Relegation Reckoning
23rd on 41 points after the six-point PSR deduction, with fixtures remaining at home to Millwall and away at Blackburn. Lose tonight and Leicester’s absolute ceiling is 47 points. Oxford — 22nd, on 44 — host Wrexham tonight then face bottom-of-the-table Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday. A Hull win here effectively ends Leicester’s Championship stay.
If Hull win tonight
- Hull to 72 pts; daylight over Wrexham if Wrexham don’t also win
- Sixth-place grip tightens with Charlton (A) and Norwich (H) to come
- Leicester’s survival path shrinks to winning both remaining fixtures and Oxford losing across three
If Hull lose tonight
- A Wrexham win at Oxford and Wrexham leapfrog Hull; a draw leaves Hull just one point clear with GD against them
- Derby (66 pts) move within striking distance of seventh
- Hull’s run-in gets fraught: Charlton away under pressure, then Norwich at home
The Table As It Stands
Hull sit sixth on a knife-edge; Leicester now bottom four after the deduction finally lands in the data.
Championship Table
Form — Neither Side Arrives Flying
Leicester are winless in their last six (three losses, three draws): 1-0 at Portsmouth, home losses to Swansea and QPR, draws with Preston, Watford and Sheffield Wednesday. The xG numbers tell a slightly more generous story — Leicester generated 2.55 at Hillsborough and 2.11 at Watford but couldn’t convert — yet the points total is the points total, and their finishing has let them down at the worst possible moment.
Hull have taken one win from six: a 3-1 over Sheffield Wednesday. The flashing concern is the 1-1 at Oxford where the home side posted 3.44 xG to Hull’s 0.82 — a genuine rescue — and the 3-0 at West Brom. Saturday’s 1-1 at home to Birmingham was another xG-underdog point. A side grinding rather than flowing.
Form compare — last six outings
Form Comparison - Last 6 Games
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hull City | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4 | DDLDDL |
| 2 | Leicester | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4 | DDLLDD |
Hull City - Recent Results
Leicester - Recent Results
Rolling xG — 10-match window
Hull City
Hull City - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
Leicester
Leicester - 10-Match Rolling xG 2025/2026
Rolling 10-match average | Green above red = Creating more than conceding
xG scatter — for vs against
Each dot is a fixture: xG produced (x-axis) against xG conceded (y-axis). Below the diagonal = outperforming.
Hull City
Hull City - xG Scatter Plot
2025/2026 Season • 45 matches with xG data
Points below the diagonal = Hull City dominated on xG
Leicester
Leicester - xG Scatter Plot
2025/2026 Season • 45 matches with xG data
Points below the diagonal = Leicester dominated on xG
Home vs away split
Hull’s away record is better than their home one. Leicester’s home record has been the weak link of their campaign, deduction aside.
Hull City
Hull City - Home vs Away 2025/2026
Home
35 pts from 22 games
Away
35 pts from 23 games
Leicester
Leicester - Home vs Away 2025/2026
Home
0 pts from 0 games
Away
0 pts from 0 games
When the goals come
Hull City
Hull City - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Leicester
Leicester - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Top Scorers — Head To Head
Two of the division’s better forwards on each side. Hull have the more prolific front pairing in raw numbers; Leicester lean on their wide creator.
Joe Gelhardt (Hull City) v Jordan James (Leicester)
Hull’s joint-top scorer on 14 league goals against Leicester’s leading man on 10. Both central attackers, both relied upon to drag their sides through the run-in.
Player Comparison
| Joe Gelhardt Hull City | Stat | Jordan James Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Appearances | 33 |
| 14 | Goals | 11 |
| 4 | Assists | 4 |
| 2772 | Minutes | 2117 |
| 6.95 | Avg Rating | 7.03 |
| 5 | Yellow Cards | 6 |
Oliver McBurnie (Hull City) v Abdul Fatawu Issahaku (Leicester)
McBurnie (14 G, 7 A) is Hull’s other 14-goal man. Issahaku’s 9 goals and 7 assists from the wing are the home side’s most consistent creation outlet.
Player Comparison
| Oliver McBurnie Hull City | Stat | Abdul Fatawu Issahaku Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Appearances | 44 |
| 15 | Goals | 9 |
| 7 | Assists | 7 |
| 2830 | Minutes | 3734 |
| 6.96 | Avg Rating | 6.85 |
| 8 | Yellow Cards | 7 |
Gelhardt — recent form chart
Joe Gelhardt - Form Chart
Average Rating: 6.80
BTP Watch — Lewis Koumas
Our second tracked Hull player. Three goals in only 574 Championship minutes this season since his loan arrival — a minutes-per-goal rate that’s elite for a winger. Koumas is the cameo threat: if he starts or comes on early, he’s the type to turn a tight away game inside 15 minutes.
Lewis Koumas - Form Chart
Average Rating: 6.56
Head to Head
Hull won the reverse fixture 2-1 at the MKM Stadium in October 2025. Historically Hull have done better against Leicester than the league positions would suggest; the recent record is tight without being one-sided.
Hull City vs Leicester
Last 4 league meetings
| Date | Home | Score | Away | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr 2026 2025-26 | Leicester | 2 - 2 | Hull City | 3.2 - 1.4 |
| 21 Oct 2025 2025-26 | Hull City | 2 - 1 | Leicester | 1.5 - 1.5 |
| 09 Mar 2024 2023-24 | Hull City | 2 - 2 | Leicester | 1.2 - 2.0 |
| 02 Sep 2023 2023-24 | Leicester | 0 - 1 | Hull City | 1.3 - 0.4 |
Goal-scoring trend — xG vs actual
How well each side’s goal output is tracking their expected-goals profile over the season.
Hull City
Hull City - xG Trend 2025/2026
Leicester
Leicester - xG Trend 2025/2026
The Model’s View
The BTP Championship model — a calibrated logistic regression with player-quality features (goals_logreg_v1_cal) — sees this as a tight home lean rather than a comfortable one. Strip the draw out and it’s nearly a coin-flip between the two sides.
Match Prediction
Model vs Market
The market has shortened Leicester sharply since the opening lines and now prices them as clear favourites. The model disagrees.
EV ratio = model probability ÷ implied probability. Values above 1.0 mean the model thinks the outcome is more likely than the price suggests.
An EV of 1.41 on the Hull win is the largest positive disagreement on tonight’s Championship card. Worth noting both ways: the gap is real, but the model doesn’t know who’s injured, suspended, or whether either dressing room is in the right emotional place for a must-win night. Those are gaps a data model won’t close.
How has the model been doing?
Across the current Championship season, the model’s outcome accuracy reads 21 correct from 62 predictions (34%). Home / draw / away split of where the calls have and haven’t landed:
Prediction Breakdown (2025)
The Verdict
Model: goals_logreg_v1_cal (calibrated logistic regression with player-quality features). Odds reflect Bet365’s kickoff-market price fetched at 12:00 BST today. BeyondThePrem does not provide betting advice; value calls are presented for analytical interest only.
