📖 Full match narrative: Goals galore as Orient stumble and model misfires badly
ML Predictions — Matchday 44
Gameweek scorecard: 3/12 correct (25.0%).
| Kickoff | Fixture | Score | H | D | A | Model Pick | Hit? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 18 Apr 11:30 | Barnsley vs Bradford | 2-2 | 49% | 21% | 30% | Home Win medium confidence |
✗ |
| Sat 18 Apr 11:30 | Bolton vs Huddersfield | 3-3 | 48% | 18% | 34% | Home Win medium confidence |
✗ |
| Sat 18 Apr 14:00 | Leyton Orient vs Rotherham | 0-2 | 54% | 21% | 26% | Home Win medium confidence |
✗ |
| Sat 18 Apr 14:00 | Wycombe vs Blackpool | 0-1 | 56% | 24% | 20% | Home Win medium confidence |
✗ |
| Sat 18 Apr 14:00 | Northampton vs Doncaster | 1-3 | 31% | 19% | 50% | Away Win medium confidence |
✓ |
| Sat 18 Apr 14:00 | Stevenage vs Lincoln | 2-2 | 27% | 18% | 54% | Away Win medium confidence |
✗ |
| Sat 18 Apr 14:00 | AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth | 1-3 | 30% | 18% | 52% | Away Win medium confidence |
✓ |
| Sat 18 Apr 14:00 | Mansfield Town vs Luton | 2-2 | 42% | 21% | 37% | Home Win low confidence |
✗ |
| Sat 18 Apr 14:00 | Reading vs Cardiff | 1-3 | 22% | 21% | 57% | Away Win medium confidence |
✓ |
| Sat 18 Apr 14:00 | Exeter City vs Stockport County | 3-3 | 34% | 19% | 47% | Away Win medium confidence |
✗ |
| Sun 19 Apr 12:00 | Peterborough vs Burton Albion | 1-1 | 32% | 19% | 49% | Away Win medium confidence |
✗ |
| Sun 19 Apr 14:00 | Port Vale vs Wigan | 0-0 | 31% | 22% | 47% | Away Win medium confidence |
✗ |
🎯 Most confident hit: Reading vs Cardiff — model said Away Win at 57% and it came in (1-3).
🙈 Confident and wrong: Wycombe vs Blackpool — model said Home Win at 56%; actual was Away Win (0-1).
🤯 Biggest surprise: Stevenage vs Lincoln — actual outcome (Draw) only had 18% model probability.
Record since our current League One model went live
(2026-04-17):
3 correct from 12
(25.0% accuracy).
Seeds for ‘5 things we learned’ — edit as you see fit:
- Barnsley and Bradford played out a 2-2 draw, despite Barnsley being the model’s preferred outcome with a 49% probability.
- Reading suffered an unexpected defeat against Cardiff, losing 1-3, which aligned with the model’s prediction that gave Cardiff a 56.8% chance of winning.
- The model correctly predicted away wins in three matches: AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth (1-3), Northampton vs Doncaster (1-3), and Reading vs Cardiff (1-3).
- Despite the model’s confidence, Leyton Orient failed to secure a win against Rotherham, resulting in an away victory with a score of 0-2.
- The high frequency of draws this gameweek, including matches like Peterborough vs Burton Albion (1-1) and Stevenage vs Lincoln (2-2), indicates a tighter competition towards the end of the season, potentially affecting promotion and relegation scenarios.
