Competition: Sky Bet League One
Dates: Saturday 18 – Sunday 19 April 2026
Number of Fixtures: 12
Leyton Orient: HOME vs Rotherham (Saturday, 3:00pm)
Lincoln travel to Stevenage with the division’s title potentially on the line. The top six is a six-team scramble with Luton, Plymouth and Huddersfield still in the mix on 63-64 points. And at the bottom, Exeter’s survival cliff-edge and Wimbledon’s fight against the drop make for two of the weekend’s most charged afternoons. Twelve fixtures. A lot of tables rewritten by Sunday night.
IMPORTANT — THIS IS NOT AN EV POST
This preview shows the ML model’s top-call probability for every fixture. The model picks the outcome with the highest probability. That is not the same thing as an EV selection.
EV selections (our Heinz / Yankee posts) are picks where the model’s probability is materially higher than the market’s implied probability, after minimum-EV and minimum-probability filters. A lot of the top calls below will not be EV selections. Treat everything here as data commentary, not a betting tip.
Gameweek 44 — Full Fixture Preview
All 12 Fixtures — Head to Head, Form & Historical Positions
League One - Matchday 44 Preview
Season 2025-26 | Powered by 6 seasons of historical data
Bolton3rd
Huddersfield8thxGF: 7.7 | xGA: 4.0 (+3.7)
xGF: 7.7 | xGA: 5.3 (+2.4)
16 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Barnsley12th
Bradford4thxGF: 3.9 | xGA: 8.8 (-4.8)
xGF: 4.2 | xGA: 7.1 (-3.0)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Reading10th
Cardiff2ndxGF: 6.1 | xGA: 4.8 (+1.3)
xGF: 5.7 | xGA: 5.1 (+0.6)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
AFC Wimbledon20th
Plymouth9thxGF: 3.5 | xGA: 6.4 (-2.9)
xGF: 11.5 | xGA: 3.0 (+8.5)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Northampton24th
Doncaster15thxGF: 3.6 | xGA: 9.2 (-5.6)
xGF: 10.4 | xGA: 5.7 (+4.7)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Wycombe11th
Blackpool19thxGF: 8.5 | xGA: 6.3 (+2.2)
xGF: 8.3 | xGA: 4.4 (+3.9)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Exeter City21st
Stockport County5thxGF: 7.6 | xGA: 4.2 (+3.3)
xGF: 5.8 | xGA: 4.4 (+1.4)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Stevenage6th
Lincoln1stxGF: 5.6 | xGA: 6.0 (-0.5)
xGF: 9.9 | xGA: 7.0 (+2.9)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Leyton Orient17th
Rotherham23rdxGF: 5.3 | xGA: 7.6 (-2.2)
xGF: 7.3 | xGA: 8.3 (-1.1)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Mansfield Town14th
Luton7thxGF: 6.8 | xGA: 5.6 (+1.2)
xGF: 7.1 | xGA: 10.0 (-2.9)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Peterborough16th
Burton Albion18thxGF: 5.6 | xGA: 10.3 (-4.8)
xGF: 2.7 | xGA: 7.9 (-5.2)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Port Vale22nd
Wigan13thxGF: 6.5 | xGA: 8.3 (-1.7)
xGF: 4.6 | xGA: 9.7 (-5.0)
18 Oct 2025 - 2025-26
Matchday 44 - Historical Insights
Playoff Race: Teams in 6th place at matchday 44 have averaged 74 points historically.
Relegation Battle: Teams in 22nd at matchday 44 have averaged 40 points historically.
Leyton Orient at Matchday 44:
- 2024-25: 6th with 72 pts → Finished 6th
- 2023-24: 11th with 62 pts → Finished 12th
Current League One Table
League One Table
League One
Updated: 17 Apr 2026, 1:49 PM
Leyton Orient at Matchday 44 — Through The Years
Leyton Orient Historical Comparison
Historical Position Comparison
Leyton Orient at Matchday 44
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 (now) | 17th | 51 | -9 | - |
| 2024-25 | 6th | 72 | +20 | 6th |
| 2023-24 | 11th | 62 | -3 | 12th |
Data from recent League One seasons
Key Storylines This Week
What to Watch For
- Lincoln at Stevenage — title in sight: Lincoln sit on 93 points, 11 clear of Cardiff. A win at Broadhall Way edges them towards a title few predicted at the start of the season. Stevenage in 6th will not be rolling over — they still need points to lock down a play-off place. The model, interestingly, has Lincoln at only 40.6% despite their run — a reminder the underlying stats are closer than the table suggests.
- Playoff shape — Bolton, Bradford, Stockport, Stevenage, Luton, Plymouth: Six teams fighting for four play-off berths behind Cardiff’s auto-promo place. Bolton-Huddersfield is the marquee Saturday 11:30 clash — win and Bolton all but lock down 3rd. Lose and Bradford (away at Barnsley) have a chance to jump them.
- Relegation — Exeter’s cliff edge: Exeter (21st, 47 pts) host Stockport with survival on the line. The model gives Stockport a 53.8% away win; the bookmaker has them at 1.90. Wimbledon (20th, 50 pts) face a similar ask against Plymouth. If either host loses, their margin for error across the remaining games shrinks to nearly nothing.
League One Top Scorers
Top Scorers Heading into Gameweek 44
League One Top Scorers
Top Assists
Top Assist Providers
League One Top Assists
Head to Head
Stevenage vs Lincoln
Last 5 league meetings
| Date | Home | Score | Away | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2025 2025-26 | Lincoln | 1 - 0 | Stevenage | - |
| 04 Jan 2025 2024-25 | Lincoln | 0 - 0 | Stevenage | - |
| 31 Aug 2024 2024-25 | Stevenage | 0 - 1 | Lincoln | - |
| 02 Mar 2024 2023-24 | Lincoln | 0 - 0 | Stevenage | - |
| 18 Nov 2023 2023-24 | Stevenage | 1 - 0 | Lincoln | - |
Recent Form Comparison
Form Comparison - Last 6 Games
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lincoln | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 16 | WDWWWW |
| 2 | Stevenage | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 10 | LWDWWL |
Stevenage - Recent Results
Lincoln - Recent Results
Goals by Period
Stevenage - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Lincoln - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
BTP Verdict
The model gives Lincoln 40.6%, the draw 31.2%, and Stevenage 28.2% — the flattest three-way split in the whole round. No landslide call either way. We lean toward a Lincoln win with the draw a live second option — Stevenage tend not to lose at home, Lincoln tend to win everything.
Leyton Orient vs Rotherham — Saturday, 3:00pm
The Opposition: Rotherham sit 22nd on 37 points — six wins all season and one of the league’s two sub-40-point sides. Their relegation has been building all year; the question for them is whether they can still pick the occasional scalp off a complacent home team.
Key Battle: Orient’s pace in the final third against a defence that has conceded 65 goals. Rotherham’s back line has struggled particularly with direct runners. Orient’s width and transitions should be the decisive lever here.
What We Think: Orient are safe at 17th but have history this season of dropping points against bottom-side opposition. Model gives them 55.2% at home — a comfortable but not overwhelming confidence. A controlled 2–0 feels right on form.
Head to Head
Leyton Orient vs Rotherham
Last 3 league meetings
| Date | Home | Score | Away | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2025 2025-26 | Rotherham | 1 - 0 | Leyton Orient | - |
| 04 Mar 2025 2024-25 | Rotherham | 1 - 0 | Leyton Orient | - |
| 22 Oct 2024 2024-25 | Leyton Orient | 1 - 0 | Rotherham | - |
Recent Form Comparison
Form Comparison - Last 6 Games
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | WDDLLD |
| 2 | Rotherham | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 15 | -14 | 1 | LLDLLL |
Leyton Orient - Recent Results
Rotherham - Recent Results
Goals by Period
Leyton Orient - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Rotherham - Goals by Time Period 2025/2026
Leyton Orient Recent Form
Leyton Orient - Recent League Form
Player to Watch
Dominic Ballard — Leyton Orient
Ballard has been one of Orient’s most reliable attacking threats this season. Against a Rotherham backline that has leaked direct goals, the opportunity for a vertical run-in is unusually large. The radar captures how much Orient’s forward output has travelled through him in recent matches.
Dominic Ballard
Leyton Orient • F • 2025-2026 Season
BTP Verdict
Orient should win this. At home, against a relegation-bound side that has been cutting adrift, with their own place secure and pressure low — it’s a game a mid-table team in form closes out. We say 2–0.
BTP Predictions — Gameweek 44
Final Thoughts
By Saturday evening, two of the biggest questions of the League One season could be functionally settled. Lincoln could be mathematically champions. Exeter could be a relegation point or two away from nearly confirmed. The playoff picture, though, will remain open — at this level, six teams are still competing for four places, and three weekends remain.
Best case for Leyton Orient: win at home, stress-free 90 minutes, end-of-season run positions Orient well for 2026/27 planning.
Worst case: drop home points to a side with nothing to play for, and the season ends with a dispiriting whimper.
Leyton Orient Upcoming Fixtures
Next Fixtures
Leyton Orient - Upcoming League Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Leyton Orient | Rotherham |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Blackpool | Leyton Orient |
| 02 May 2026 | Leyton Orient | Burton Albion |
Top-call probability ≠ EV selection.
The bars below show the model’s probability for each outcome. An EV selection is the subset where the model’s probability exceeds the market’s implied probability by our threshold and clears a minimum absolute probability floor. Many of the top calls below are not EV picks — the two outputs answer different questions.
Whole-Season Model Scorecard — League One 2025/26
📊 How the Model Has Done
TOP-CALL HITS
11 / 45
24% — last 4 rounds
DRAW ACCURACY
40%
2 of 5 draw calls
WEAK SPOT
19%
Away calls: 5 of 27
Hit rate by predicted outcome
Hit rate by matchday
Four rounds in a row of improvement — small sample, but the trend line is heading the right way.
What this tells us: the League One model is most accurate when it calls a draw (40%), which is unusual for a probability-argmax model and mirrors a property specific to League One — it’s a draw-heavy division. Home calls are close to baseline (31%). Away calls are well below (19%), which is the dominant sample and the main reason the overall 24% number looks low. The improvement across the last four rounds (14% → 18% → 25% → 36%) is the most encouraging signal in the small-sample data.
Fixture-By-Fixture — Model Probability for GW44
Bolton vs Huddersfield
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
55.8% Bolton — a confident home call for a team pushing for automatic-adjacent finishes. Huddersfield are 9th but still have a mathematical shot at the top six, so this is not a dead-rubber away trip. Expect both ends of the pitch to be busy.
Barnsley vs Bradford
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
56.2% Bradford — the model’s most confident call of the weekend. Bradford sit 4th on 71 points. Barnsley are 12th and drifting. The model views this as a genuine mismatch despite Oakwell’s historical difficulty for visitors.
Reading vs Cardiff
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
47.2% Reading — a surprising call given Cardiff sit 2nd and Reading 10th. The model seems to be reading Reading’s home form stronger than the table suggests. Worth watching as a stress test of the model vs market view.
Wycombe vs Blackpool
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
56.0% Wycombe. Blackpool have been dire on the road all season (19th overall). Wycombe at home against bottom-half travellers has been a dependable quadrant of the table this year.
Exeter City vs Stockport County
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
53.8% Stockport away. Exeter’s relegation battle meets Stockport’s top-six push. A cliff-edge fixture for the hosts — if they lose here, the margin for error across the remaining games effectively disappears.
Stevenage vs Lincoln
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
40.6% Lincoln, 31.2% draw, 28.2% Stevenage — the flattest three-way split of the weekend. Reflects that Stevenage’s home record is better than the table gap suggests, and Lincoln’s numbers are not quite as dominant as the 93-point total implies. No runaway call.
AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
50.4% Plymouth. A relegation-vs-playoff clash where the stakes skew the model’s read toward the visitors. Wimbledon are in genuine trouble, but have home-advantage and desperation going for them.
Leyton Orient vs Rotherham
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
55.2% Orient at home against the league’s second-weakest side. Draw at 29.4% is notably high — reflects Rotherham’s ability to frustrate despite their record. Still, a clean home call.
Northampton vs Doncaster
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
35.0% Doncaster narrowly top-calls over Northampton 34.2% — a nearly 3-way-even split. Market priced similarly. One of those fixtures where the model and market agree the game is close enough that it is basically a coin-flip.
Mansfield Town vs Luton
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
41.4% Mansfield with the draw at 40.4% — effectively co-favourite. Luton’s drop from the Premier League continues to be complicated, and Mansfield’s mid-table comfort produces unpredictable results like this.
Peterborough vs Burton Albion
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
43.8% Peterborough at home. Both sides are mid-to-bottom half; neither has much to play for. A routine home call in a fixture the stakes do not elevate.
Port Vale vs Wigan
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
41.4% Wigan away — a relegation-vs-comfortable-mid clash where the model reads Wigan as the stronger side despite nearly identical form. Port Vale sit 23rd in genuine survival trouble.
🤖 Model Notes — GW44
Six of twelve top calls are home wins this week — a more balanced distribution than the Championship round. The most interesting pattern: the model’s “signature fixture” this matchday is Bradford away at Barnsley (56.2%) — the single most confident call in either division. If that lands, it is the kind of away-team pick the model is built to find. If it misses badly, the 19%-on-away tally gets another unhelpful data point.
Four draws on the League One card are priced above 3.50 — but only Mansfield v Luton crosses into territory where the model shares the market’s “this could go any way” view. Whether any of those clear our EV thresholds is a question for the EV-specific Heinz post, not this preview.
Model: Random Forest (leagueone_goals_v1), trained on League One historical data. Full methodology.
Check back after the weekend for our Gameweek 44 League One review with match reports, updated standings, and a fresh scorecard on how these calls landed.
