Matchday 6 is seven fixtures across the weekend — one on the Saturday and six on the Sunday. Both of our models call a home win in five of the seven and an away win in the other two, and this week they agree on every one of them — in Matchday 4 they picked opposite winners on three. Manchester City have won all five and Chelsea have conceded one goal all season. What the card does not offer is a close one: the narrowest split anywhere is 20.9 percentage points.
Gameweek 6 – Stats & Historical Data
All Fixtures — Head to Head, Form & Historical Positions
Wsl - Matchday 6 Preview
Season 2026-27 | Powered by 6 seasons of historical data
Arsenal W7th
Birmingham City W12thxGF: 7.8 | xGA: 1.3 (+6.4)
xGF: 4.3 | xGA: 6.0 (-1.8)
17 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Chelsea W1st
Tottenham Hotspur W4thxGF: 11.0 | xGA: 3.0 (+8.0)
xGF: 4.4 | xGA: 5.7 (-1.4)
18 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Crystal Palace W13th
West Ham W10thxGF: 2.7 | xGA: 7.4 (-4.7)
xGF: 4.8 | xGA: 3.7 (+1.1)
18 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Aston Villa W9th
Liverpool W11thxGF: 2.8 | xGA: 4.6 (-1.8)
xGF: 3.4 | xGA: 4.6 (-1.3)
18 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Charlton Athletic W14th
Manchester United W5thxGF: 1.3 | xGA: 9.5 (-8.2)
xGF: 4.0 | xGA: 3.5 (+0.6)
18 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
London City Lionesses3rd
Everton W8thxGF: 8.0 | xGA: 4.6 (+3.4)
xGF: 1.8 | xGA: 4.2 (-2.3)
18 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Manchester City W2nd
Brighton W6thxGF: 6.0 | xGA: 5.3 (+0.7)
xGF: 5.3 | xGA: 4.0 (+1.2)
18 Oct 2026 - 2026-27
Matchday 6 - Historical Insights
Playoff Race: Teams in 6th place at matchday 6 have averaged 10 points historically.
Current WSL Table
WSL Table
Women's Super League
Updated: 03 Nov 2026, 11:49 AM
Key Storylines This Week
What to Watch For
- The two models agree on all seven: The probability bars are wsl_lr_v2_cal and the scorelines come from wsl_poisson_v1, a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles correction. They are separate models with separate inputs, and in Matchday 4 they picked opposite winners on three of the seven. This week they pick the same side in all seven. That is not the models becoming more certain — it is a card with fewer genuinely close fixtures on it.
- A perfect record, and one goal conceded: Manchester City have won all five and scored sixteen. Chelsea have thirteen points from five, and have conceded one goal in the whole season so far — fewer than anyone else in the division, and nobody else is close. They are the only two sides still unbeaten. At the other end Charlton Athletic have lost all five.
- The closest call is still twenty points wide: Crystal Palace v West Ham is the narrowest split on the card and the models still separate them by 20.9 percentage points. The firmest call is 81.7%. A division where the closest fixture is twenty points apart is telling you something about the spread of the league rather than about this particular weekend: the gaps here are real and the models are not hedging them.
WSL Top Scorers
Top Scorers Heading into Gameweek 6 — on three goals, five players are level and one is shown
Top Assists — 2026/27 season
Top Assist Providers
WSL Top Assists
Head to Head
We hold thirteen meetings between these two; the twelve most recent are below.
Chelsea W vs Tottenham Hotspur W
Last 12 league meetings
| Date | Home | Score | Away | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 2026-27 | Chelsea W | 6 - 2 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 2.3 - 1.2 |
| 08 Feb 2026 2025-26 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 0 - 2 | Chelsea W | - |
| 12 Oct 2025 2025-26 | Chelsea W | 1 - 0 | Tottenham Hotspur W | - |
| 04 May 2025 2024-25 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 0 - 1 | Chelsea W | - |
| 20 Oct 2024 2024-25 | Chelsea W | 5 - 2 | Tottenham Hotspur W | - |
| 15 May 2024 2023-24 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 0 - 1 | Chelsea W | - |
| 01 Oct 2023 2023-24 | Chelsea W | 2 - 1 | Tottenham Hotspur W | - |
| 05 Feb 2023 2022-23 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 2 - 3 | Chelsea W | - |
| 20 Nov 2022 2022-23 | Chelsea W | 3 - 0 | Tottenham Hotspur W | - |
| 28 Apr 2022 2021-22 | Chelsea W | 2 - 1 | Tottenham Hotspur W | - |
| 24 Apr 2022 2021-22 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 1 - 3 | Chelsea W | - |
| 05 May 2021 2020-21 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 0 - 2 | Chelsea W | - |
Recent Form Comparison — this season
Form Comparison - Last 6 Games
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 3 | +18 | 18 | WWWWWW |
| 2 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 9 | WWLLLW |
Chelsea W - Recent Results
Tottenham Hotspur W - Recent Results
This Season at a Glance
Chelsea W
WSL 2026/2027 Season Summary
Overall
Home
Away
xG Analysis
Based on 8 matches with xG data
Overperforming xG by 16.0 goals - clinical finishing or some luck involved.
Tottenham Hotspur W
WSL 2026/2027 Season Summary
Overall
Home
Away
xG Analysis
Based on 8 matches with xG data
Overperforming xG by 18.6 goals - clinical finishing or some luck involved.
Goals by Period — 2026/27 season
Chelsea W - Goals by Time Period 2026/2027
Tottenham Hotspur W - Goals by Time Period 2026/2027
Historical Position at Matchday 6
Historical Position Comparison
Chelsea W - Sunday 18th October 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 (now) | 1st | 22 | +23 | - |
| 2025-26 | 1st | 16 | +9 | 2nd |
| 2024-25 | 1st | 18 | +18 | 1st |
| 2023-24 | 1st | 16 | +14 | 1st |
| 2022-23 | 3rd | 15 | +9 | 1st |
| 2021-22 | 2nd | 15 | +13 | 1st |
| 2020-21 | 1st | 26 | +26 | 1st |
| 2019-20 | 2nd | 22 | +16 | 2nd |
Historical Position Comparison
Tottenham Hotspur W - Sunday 18th October 2026
| Season | Pos | Pts | GD | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 (now) | 4th | 13 | +6 | - |
| 2025-26 | 4th | 12 | +0 | 5th |
| 2024-25 | 7th | 7 | -2 | 11th |
| 2023-24 | 4th | 11 | +5 | 6th |
| 2022-23 | 6th | 9 | +2 | 9th |
| 2021-22 | 3rd | 13 | +4 | 5th |
| 2020-21 | 7th | 9 | -10 | 8th |
| 2019-20 | 6th | 13 | -3 | 6th |
Player to Watch
Victoria Pelova — Tottenham Hotspur W
Victoria Pelova has five goals this season for Tottenham Hotspur, five of the sixteen they have scored. Chelsea have conceded one in five.
Radar: 2026/27 season data, 5 rounds in.
Victoria Pelova
Tottenham Hotspur W • 2026-2027 Season
BTP Verdict
The number worth reading here is the margin rather than the score: the models put 61% on this finishing within a goal, and the likeliest scorelines are 1-0 10%, 2-1 10%, 1-1 10%. The head-to-head is as one-sided as a head-to-head gets, and the models are not shown it: head-to-head is not one of their inputs, so the 63.9% comes from form, goals and player-quality signals instead. What it turns on is whether Tottenham’s sixteen goals can get past a defence that has conceded one.
Manchester City have won all five
Manchester City have fifteen points from five matches, sixteen scored and six conceded, and they are the only club in the division yet to drop a point. They beat Arsenal 4-2 in Matchday 5 and host Brighton on Sunday, where the models make them 81.7% — the firmest call of the round.
Chelsea have conceded one goal all season
Chelsea have played five, won four, drawn one and conceded one. No one else in the division has conceded fewer than four. They host Tottenham, who have scored sixteen across their opening five matches but conceded six at home to London City in the last round. One of those two records gives way on Sunday.
Charlton Athletic are still looking for a first point
Charlton Athletic have lost all five, scored two and conceded fifteen. They came up through the promotion play-off and have no WSL league record in our data before this season, and the models give them 29.2% at home to Manchester United on Sunday. Aston Villa and Birmingham City are the other two clubs still without a win, though both have points on the board.
Matchday 5 produced twenty-eight goals in seven
Matchday 5 returned four home wins, one draw and two away wins, and twenty-eight goals across the seven. London City won 6-1 at Tottenham, the highest-scoring match of the round, and Brighton beat Charlton Athletic 5-1. Across the season the division has produced 111 goals in thirty-five matches. This is a high-scoring league and the scorelines reflect it.
Player Watchlist
Three players to keep an eye on this weekend.
- Khadija Shaw (Manchester City W) — Five goals from Manchester City W’s five matches, five of the sixteen they have scored.
- Océane Hurtre (Birmingham City W) — Five goals from Birmingham City W’s five matches, five of the seven they have scored.
- Victoria Pelova (Tottenham Hotspur W) — Five goals from Tottenham Hotspur W’s five matches, five of the sixteen they have scored.
BTP Predictions — Gameweek 6
Final Thoughts
Seven fixtures, five home calls and two away, and the two models agreeing on every one of them, two rounds after they split on three. Manchester City are perfect, Chelsea have conceded one goal, and Charlton Athletic are still without a point. Read the margins rather than the scorelines.
Arsenal W vs Birmingham City W
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Arsenal W, at 61.4% / 16.9% / 21.7% home, draw and away. It puts 62% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-0 11%, 1-1 10%, 2-1 10%, none of them close to certain.
Chelsea W vs Tottenham Hotspur W
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Chelsea W, at 63.9% / 9.2% / 26.9% home, draw and away. It puts 61% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-0 10%, 2-1 10%, 1-1 10%, none of them close to certain.
Crystal Palace W vs West Ham W
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Crystal Palace W, at 52.8% / 15.3% / 31.9% home, draw and away. It puts 65% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 1-0 11%, 1-1 10%, 2-1 9%, none of them close to certain.
Aston Villa W vs Liverpool W
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Liverpool W, at 29.2% / 10.1% / 60.7% home, draw and away. It puts 59% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 0-1 12%, 0-2 10%, 1-2 10%, none of them close to certain.
Charlton Athletic W vs Manchester United W
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Manchester United W, at 29.2% / 15.6% / 55.2% home, draw and away. It puts 54% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 0-1 11%, 0-2 11%, 1-2 10%, none of them close to certain.
London City Lionesses vs Everton W
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is London City Lionesses, at 78.9% / 17.7% / 3.4% home, draw and away. It puts 48% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 2-0 10%, 1-0 10%, 2-1 10%, none of them close to certain.
Manchester City W vs Brighton W
📊 ML Probability
Match Prediction
The model’s most likely outcome is Manchester City W, at 81.7% / 12.9% / 5.4% home, draw and away. It puts 44% on the match finishing within a goal; the likeliest scorelines are 2-0 11%, 1-0 9%, 3-0 9%, none of them close to certain.
🤖 Model Notes — GW6
Two models run on every fixture. The probability bars are wsl_lr_v2_cal, a calibrated logistic regression; the scorelines come from wsl_poisson_v1, a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction. They have separate inputs and can pick opposite winners — in Matchday 4 they did so on three of the seven — and this round they agree on all seven. Expected goals are not shown anywhere on this page: the provider has published them for exactly one match in this division’s history, which supports no comparison between two sides, so the section is removed rather than filled with a gap.
Model: Platt-calibrated Logistic Regression with position-segmented, z-scored player features (wsl_lr_v2_cal, deployed 27 May 2026). Trained on WSL seasons 2020/21–2024/25. Supersedes wsl_lr_v1_cal — v2 walk-forward log-loss on 2024/25 holdout is ~6.6% lower than v1’s 0.9683. Companion Poisson + Dixon-Coles goals model (wsl_poisson_v1, deployed 5 Aug 2026, ρ=+0.084) drives scoreline grids: 25/26 walk-forward log-loss 0.909 vs naive 1.040 (+12.6%). Full methodology here.
Check back after the weekend for our full Gameweek 6 WSL review with match reports and updated standings!
