Lincoln 1–1 Southampton

🏟️ Sincil Bank

Lincoln needed an 87th-minute M. Ladefoged equaliser to rescue a point after Welington had put Southampton in front just before the break. It was no more than the hosts’ 2.27 xG deserved, Southampton finishing with 0.77, but the late goal still left Lincoln with only five points from five games. Southampton made it back-to-back 1-1 away draws and now have four points after their deduction, with three of their five played away. The pattern of away draws is not yet a problem, but it is starting to look like a habit.

⚽ Goals: Welington (44′), M. Ladefoged (87′)

Key Moment: Ladefoged’s late leveller at Sincil Bank denied Southampton an away win their underlying numbers did not support.

What It Means: Lincoln stop a two-match winless run becoming three, while Southampton stay on four points after their deduction.

Stoke City 4–0 Charlton

🏟️ bet365 Stadium

Stoke City blew Charlton away with four first-half goals. Justin Devenny opened from the penalty spot in the 15th minute and added a fourth in the 41st, with Ethan Galbraith and George Hirst also scoring as Stoke struck four times inside 26 first-half minutes. The xG edge of 2.14 to 0.61 reflected a dominant display, and a late introduction for Jack McGlynn added to a positive afternoon. Charlton suffered a first league defeat of the season and lost their early momentum, while Stoke now have back-to-back wins and six points after a terrible start.

⚽ Goals: Justin Devenny (15′ pen), Ethan Galbraith (22′), George Hirst (25′), Justin Devenny (41′)

Key Moment: Hirst’s goal in the 25th minute made it 3-0 and left Charlton with no route back before the break.

What It Means: Stoke move to six points with two straight wins, while Charlton are handed their first league defeat.

Preston 2–1 Blackburn

🏟️ Deepdale

Callum Lang’s early double gave Preston a first win of the season in a lively Lancashire derby at Deepdale. He struck in the ninth and 27th minutes, and although a Stanley Mills own goal pulled Blackburn back to 2-1 six minutes after the interval, the hosts saw the match out. Preston finished with 2.19 xG to Blackburn’s 1.09, so the margin was fair. Blackburn are now winless in three and stuck on five points, while Preston have ended a run of four straight defeats.

⚽ Goals: Callum Lang (9′), Callum Lang (27′), Stanley Mills (51′ og)

Key Moment: Lang’s second goal in the 27th minute gave Preston a cushion they never quite surrendered.

What It Means: Preston get their first win of the season; Blackburn remain on five points and without a win in three.

Burnley 1–2 Bristol City

🏟️ Turf Moor

Burnley’s difficult start continued as Bristol City came from behind to win 2-1 at Turf Moor. Aaron Ramsey had given the hosts a 56th-minute lead, but Robert Dickie levelled in the 82nd and Yu Hirakawa won it in the 90th. Burnley’s 0.26 xG was the more concerning figure: they barely troubled the visitors and have now gone five games without a win. Bristol City made it three straight wins and 10 points, while Burnley remain on two points and need to find a way to turn second-half positions into results.

⚽ Goals: Aaron Ramsey (56′), Robert Dickie (82′), Yu Hirakawa (90′)

Key Moment: Hirakawa’s 90th-minute winner capped a late Bristol City comeback and deepened Burnley’s early-season gloom.

What It Means: Bristol City stretch their winning run to three games; Burnley are still winless in five.

West Brom 1–0 Watford

🏟️ The Hawthorns

West Brom edged Watford 1-0 at The Hawthorns despite the visitors shading the xG count 1.26 to 1.14. J. Morgan’s 36th-minute goal proved the only score, and Albion protected the lead well enough thereafter. It was a third win in five for West Brom, taking them to 10 points, while Watford have now lost two in a row and are winless in four. The home side’s efficiency was the difference on a day when both teams looked capable of scoring, but only one took the chance that mattered.

⚽ Goals: J. Morgan (36′)

Key Moment: Morgan’s first-half goal allowed West Brom to defend a lead against the run of the underlying numbers.

What It Means: West Brom reach 10 points with their third win, while Watford fall to a second straight defeat.

Portsmouth 2–0 Cardiff

🏟️ Fratton Park

Portsmouth returned to winning ways with a 2-0 home success over Cardiff. Conor Shaughnessy put Portsmouth ahead after 31 minutes and Marko Milovanović added the second seven minutes after the restart. The xG margin of 2.07 to 1.37 suggested a relatively comfortable afternoon, and Cardiff rarely looked like ending a winless run that now spans five matches. Portsmouth move to six points, while Cardiff remain on three and are still searching for a first league victory of the season.

⚽ Goals: Conor Shaughnessy (31′), Marko Milovanović (52′)

Key Moment: Milovanović’s goal early in the second half gave Portsmouth breathing space and ended the contest.

What It Means: Portsmouth stop two straight defeats with a second win of the campaign, while Cardiff’s winless run reaches five.

Millwall 4–0 Bolton

🏟️ The Den

Millwall put a stop to their two-match losing run with a 4-0 thumping of Bolton at The Den. Caleb Taylor’s 38th-minute opener set the platform, and the game was wrapped up late as Lyndon Dykes struck twice in five minutes before Camiel Neghli added a fourth in the 90th. The xG count of 2.65 to 0.95 reflected Millwall’s superiority, though the late flurry made the scoreline harder than Bolton’s second-half performance deserved. Millwall are now on nine points, while Bolton have lost three in a row and are winless in four.

⚽ Goals: Caleb Taylor (38′), Lyndon Dykes (83′), Lyndon Dykes (88′), Camiel Neghli (90′)

Key Moment: Dykes’s first goal in the 83rd minute made the win safe and broke Bolton’s resistance.

What It Means: Millwall bounce back to nine points, while Bolton fall to a third successive defeat.

QPR 0–1 Middlesbrough

🏟️ Loftus Road Stadium

Middlesbrough left Loftus Road with a 1-0 win thanks to Will Lankshear’s 20th-minute goal. The visitors were good value for the result, finishing with 2.53 xG to QPR’s 1.03 and and created chances repeatedly against a stretched home defence. QPR had won their previous two but never found the rhythm that carried them through those matches. Middlesbrough are now unbeaten in three and on 10 points, while QPR also remain on 10 but have lost for the first time this season.

⚽ Goals: Will Lankshear (20′)

Key Moment: Lankshear’s early strike was enough, Middlesbrough holding the lead for the remaining 70 minutes.

What It Means: Middlesbrough move to 10 points with an unbeaten run of three, while QPR’s momentum stalls.

West Ham 3–0 Derby

🏟️ London Stadium

West Ham turned in the most complete performance of the round with a 3-0 win over Derby at the London Stadium. Joël Piroe set the tone after six minutes, and late goals from E. Austbö and Mohamadou Kanté underlined the scale of the home side’s dominance. Derby were out-chanced 3.79 to 0.11 on xG, the widest margin of the gameweek. West Ham have now won two in a row and move to eight points, while Derby’s brief uplift from their previous win was checked emphatically.

⚽ Goals: Joël Piroe (6′), E. Austbö (87′), Mohamadou Kanté (90′)

Key Moment: Piroe’s sixth-minute goal gave West Ham a lead they never looked like losing.

What It Means: West Ham’s second straight win takes them to eight points, while Derby remain on four.

Sheffield Utd 1–3 Norwich

🏟️ Bramall Lane

Sheffield United’s unbeaten start was ended by a lively Norwich City at Bramall Lane. Anthony Musaba gave Norwich an eighth-minute lead, Patrick Bamford hauled United level in the 23rd, but Mohamed Touré restored the visitors’ advantage a minute before half-time and Mathias Kvistgaarden added a third just after the hour. Norwich’s 3.04 xG to 0.79 showed the win was no smash-and-grab. The result leaves both sides on six points, with United tasting a first league defeat and Norwich continuing their topsy-turvy start.

⚽ Goals: Anthony Musaba (8′), Patrick Bamford (23′), Mohamed Touré (44′), Mathias Kvistgaarden (62′)

Key Moment: Touré’s goal just before half-time put Norwich back in front after Sheffield United had levelled.

What It Means: Norwich claim a second win and six points, while Sheffield United lose their unbeaten record.

Swansea 0–0 Wrexham

🏟️ Swansea.com Stadium

Swansea and Wrexham could not find a goal in a tight goalless draw at the Swansea.com Stadium. The hosts shaded xG 0.74 to 0.67, but neither side created enough to deserve more than a point. Swansea remain unbeaten through five and have conceded only one goal, while Wrexham kept another clean sheet after their 3-0 win at Millwall. It was a result that does more for Wrexham’s defensive confidence than for Swansea’s attacking rhythm, though both managers will take the solidity.

⚽ Goals: No scorers recorded

Key Moment: The final whistle preserved a goalless draw in which both defences were rarely forced into sustained mistakes.

What It Means: Swansea stay unbeaten with 11 points, while Wrexham move to six with a second consecutive clean sheet on the road.

⭐ Match of the Round: Birmingham 2–2 Wolves

🏟️ St. Andrew’s @ Knighthead Park

St Andrew’s delivered a four-goal first half as Birmingham and Wolves drew 2-2. Fer López put Wolves in front inside three minutes, Jay Stansfield levelled for Birmingham at 22, Ladislav Krejčí restored the visitors’ lead at 31, and Jackson Tchatchoua’s own goal five minutes later made sure the sides went in level. Wolves shaded xG 1.95 to 1.41, but Birmingham could not find a winner after the break, though Wolves finished with the better xG. The point keeps Blues unbeaten through five, albeit with one win and four draws, while Wolves are without a win in two.

⚽ Goals: Fer López (3′), Jay Stansfield (22′), Ladislav Krejčí (31′), Jackson Tchatchoua (36′ og)

Key Moment: Tchatchoua’s own goal in the 36th minute completed the scoring before half-time and ensured Wolves could not protect the lead they had twice held.

What It Means: Birmingham extend their unbeaten run to five but now have four draws from five; Wolves move to eight points and will view the away point as a reasonable result after a difficult second half.

⭐ Player of the Week: Justin Devenny (Stoke City)

Devenny set the tone for Stoke’s first-half demolition of Charlton with a 15th-minute penalty and added his second goal in the 41st. Both his goals came inside the first 41 minutes, and Stoke led 4-0 at the interval — all four of their goals scored in the first half.

🎯 Goal of the Week

Fer López (Wolves) vs Birmingham — López opened the scoring at St Andrew’s inside three minutes with an early piece of invention, and and Wolves’ most incisive moment of the derby.

💪 Performance of the Week

West Ham‘s 3-0 against Derby — West Ham produced the most one-sided display of the round at the London Stadium, out-chancing Derby 3.79 to 0.11 on xG and scoring through Joël Piroe, E. Austbö and Mohamadou Kanté.

Still Waiting for a Win

Burnley — winless in five and on two points after a 2-1 home defeat to Bristol City in which they managed 0.26 xG, the lowest figure any home side recorded in the round. They led and conceded the winner late.

⚽ Championship Top Scorers

👀 Key Fixtures Next Week

• Southampton vs Swansea (Tue 08 Sep 19:45)
• Cardiff vs Stoke City (Tue 08 Sep 19:45)
• Blackburn vs Sheffield Utd (Tue 08 Sep 19:45)
• Watford vs Preston (Tue 08 Sep 19:45)
• Wrexham vs Burnley (Tue 08 Sep 19:45)
• Bolton vs West Ham (Tue 08 Sep 20:00)
• Derby vs West Brom (Wed 09 Sep 19:45)
• Norwich vs Birmingham (Wed 09 Sep 19:45)

🔮 Predictions Review

Correct Results: 4/12

Correct Scores: 0/12

Model Record: 41/103 (39.8%) since 2026-04-14 — spans 2025/26 and 2026/27

Best Call: The model’s best call was Stoke City to beat Charlton at home, a 4-0 result that landed despite only 40.5% pre-match confidence.

Worst Call: The biggest miss was Lincoln vs Southampton: the model backed an away win at 60.4% confidence, but it finished 1-1.

The model hit four of 12 this week and failed to identify any of the three draws, with all four of its away picks failing as home sides responded; its cumulative record since April remains just under 40%.

📚 Five Things We Learned

1. Stoke’s four first-half goals against Charlton showed what their attack can do after three straight losses to start, but it also exposed how brittle Charlton can be on the road.
2. Norwich’s 3.04 xG at Bramall Lane ended Sheffield United’s unbeaten start, yet the same side lost to a previously winless Stoke City a week earlier.
3. Bristol City are the division’s form side with three straight wins after coming from behind at Burnley, while Burnley’s 0.26 xG at home makes a two-point start look entirely earned.
4. West Ham’s 3.79 xG against Derby’s 0.11 was the round’s biggest mismatch and suggests their front line is close to full output.
5. Lincoln out-shot Southampton on xG 2.27-0.77 but needed a late Ladefoged equaliser, a reminder that chance creation does not always turn into points.