What’s On It

The winner secures a place in the Championship for 2026-27. Stockport have not been in the second tier for 24 years. The financial step-up from League One to the Championship, while not as vast as the Premier League gap, brings a significant increase in broadcast and commercial revenue. For both clubs, this is a transformative opportunity. Bolton return to Wembley for the second time in two years, having lost the 2024 final to Oxford. Stockport’s trajectory from non-league to the cusp of the Championship represents one of English football’s more striking recent arcs. The winner will join automatically promoted Lincoln and Cardiff in the second tier.

The model headline

The LR cal model treats Wembley as a home fixture for Bolton (API convention) and gives Bolton 46.1% / draw 18.3% / Stockport 35.7%. Reverse the home/away and rerun the same model and the call flips: Stockport 43.6% / draw 19.9% / Bolton 36.5%. Averaging the two for a venue-symmetric reading lands at Bolton 41.3% / draw 19.1% / Stockport 39.6% — no clear favourite at result level, level on the night between the two sides, with an unusually low draw share. The Poisson grid is closer to even at 44.3 / 24.9 / 30.8 and is less venue-biased. The conditional-modal scoreline remains Bolton 1-0, but the contest is closer than the API-default reading suggests.

The Final League One Table 2025-26

Lincoln (103 pts) and Cardiff (91 pts) up automatically. Stockport finished 3rd (77 pts), Bolton 5th (75 pts) — separated by 2 points and qualifying on goal difference over 6th-placed Stevenage.

Bolton’s Road

Bolton, seeded fifth, reached Wembley with a 2-0 aggregate win over Bradford. In the first leg at home, Amario Cozier-Duberry scored the only goal in a 1-0 win. The second leg at Valley Parade was also 1-0, with substitute Xavier Simons scoring an 81st-minute winner. Simons, who had been in and out of the starting XI, was praised by manager Steven Schumacher: ‘He’s found himself sometimes out of starting XIs or matchday squads but he’s a model pro, he’s done absolutely everything properly all the time, every single day.’ Simons himself said: ‘Nothing’s been given to me in football terms and I’ve had to work hard for everything. It’s nice for the rewards to pay off but the job’s not done yet.’ Bolton’s regular season ended with a wobble — just two wins in their final ten league games, including a 2-3 home defeat to Luton on the final day. That poor run dropped them to fifth, but their underlying numbers remained strong, with the best xG difference in the play-off field at +8.99. Schumacher noted the intensity of the season: ‘I think every game’s intense, I don’t think there’s been one this year where I can sit back and relax.’ The semi-final aggregate was secured with two clean sheets, a testament to their defensive organisation despite the late-season form dip.

Stockport County’s Road

Stockport, the third seed, swept past Stevenage 3-0 on aggregate. The first leg at the Lamex Stadium was decided by a 94th-minute winner from Ben Osborn. The second leg at Edgeley Park was more emphatic: Louie Barry opened the scoring in the 14th minute and Kyle Wootton doubled the lead in the 28th. Manager Dave Challinor reflected on the journey: ‘I remember saying when we were in the National League that everything for me was about being an English Football League manager. To be able to say what I’m saying now is unthinkable from where I was sort of five years ago.’ Challinor also noted the statistical paradox: ‘If you want to look at what statistics look like, we’ve got no chance of getting promoted out of these play-offs because we’ve lost to Bradford twice, we’ve lost to Stevenage twice, we’ve beat Bolton on the first game of the season, when we were probably a little bit fortunate, and we drew away.’ Stockport went into the play-offs on a strong recent run — four wins in their last six competitive matches including both semi-final legs — and their semi-final performances were clinical despite conceding higher xG in the second leg. Stevenage manager Alex Revell acknowledged Stockport’s quality: ‘We’re all gutted, absolutely gutted, and it’s going to take us a little while to get over it, but Stockport were here last year.’ Challinor’s experience of seven promotions across 16 seasons underpins Stockport’s composure in high-stakes matches.

Form & Expected Goals

Bolton finished the regular season with the strongest expected goal difference in the play-off field at +8.99, compared to Stockport’s +0.93. However, Bolton’s form was patchy — only two wins in their final ten league games — while Stockport won three of their last five. Bolton’s home record was exceptional (13 wins, 8 draws, 2 losses) but their away form was middling (6 wins, 10 draws, 7 losses). Wembley is neutral, removing that home advantage. The opening-day fixture between the two sides at Edgeley Park saw almost identical xG (1.02 vs 1.01) but Stockport won 2-0, a pattern of finishing that has defined the head-to-head. Bolton’s xG supremacy is built on a strong defence (11.8 xGA, best in the play-off field) and efficient attack (20.7 xGF), while Stockport’s numbers are closer to par. The contrast between Bolton’s process-driven strength and Stockport’s results-oriented resilience is the central tactical question. Stockport’s xGD of +0.93 is modest, but their actual goal difference of +13 reflects an ability to outperform expectations. Bolton’s xGD of +8.99 is the best in the play-off field — ahead of Cardiff’s +8.8 (auto-promoted). Lincoln, who topped the table on 103 points, posted a curiously negative xGD of -3.2 — a major regression-watch story for next season.

Form compare — last six

Rolling xG — 10-match window

Home vs away split — season-long

Tactical Preview

Bolton’s set-piece threat, led by centre-back Eoin Toal, could be decisive against a Stockport side that has conceded 58 goals. In midfield, the contest between Bolton’s Josh Sheehan (7.26 rating) and Stockport’s Oliver Norwood (7.60 rating, the highest in either squad) will be pivotal. Norwood’s experience from Sheffield United’s Championship promotion adds a calm head. Wembley’s neutral venue means Bolton cannot rely on their formidable home record, levelling the tactical playing field. Stockport’s approach under Challinor is pragmatic, often ceding possession but remaining compact, as seen in the semi-final second leg where Stevenage had higher xG but failed to score. Bolton, by contrast, will look to dominate the ball and create chances through Cozier-Duberry’s creativity and Burstow’s movement. The battle on the flanks, where Jack Diamond and Cozier-Duberry operate, could be decisive. Bolton’s midfield trio of Sheehan, Dempsey, and Erhahon provides a solid base, while Stockport’s Norwood and Osborn offer a blend of creativity and industry. The defensive records are similar: Bolton conceded 52 goals, Stockport 58, but Bolton’s xGA of 11.8 is significantly better than Stockport’s 17.9, suggesting Bolton’s defence may be more sustainable.

xG scatter — fixture-by-fixture

Each dot is a league fixture: xG produced (x-axis) against xG conceded (y-axis). Below the diagonal = outperformed underlying numbers in that game.

Key Players

For Bolton, top scorer Mason Burstow (12 goals) leads the line, supported by chief creator Amario Cozier-Duberry (8 goals, 10 assists), who scored in the semi-final first leg. Johnny Kenny has been efficient with 6 goals in just 13 appearances. Xavier Simons, the semi-final second-leg hero, provides a midfield spark. Josh Sheehan anchors the engine room with a 7.26 rating. For Stockport, Kyle Wootton is the top scorer with 18 goals, including the semi-final second-leg decider. Oliver Norwood, with 7 goals and 11 assists, is the creative heartbeat. Ben Osborn scored the late winner in the first leg and assisted the opener in the second. Louie Barry, on loan from Aston Villa, has 3 goals in just 220 minutes of action, offering a potent cameo threat. Corey Addai’s goalkeeping was crucial in the semi-finals, making fine saves to keep Stevenage out. Bolton’s defensive options include Chris Forino, who expressed excitement before the semi-finals: ‘I can only speak for myself, but no. I think it’s not nerves, it’s excitement. I think you want to play in games like this, games where there’s something on the line. I’m excited.’ Stockport’s Adama Sidibeh and Odin Bailey provide additional attacking depth.

Mason Burstow — recent form (Bolton, 12 league goals)

Kyle Wootton — recent form (Stockport, 18 league goals)

BTP Watch — Amario Cozier-Duberry

Bolton’s chief creator — 8 goals + 10 assists from midfield, rating 7.12, with the SF1 winner against Bradford to his name.

Head to Head

Stockport hold a clear psychological edge this season, going unbeaten in two meetings: a 2-0 win on the opening day at Edgeley Park and a 2-2 draw at Bolton in April. The opening-day result was particularly instructive — xG was almost identical (1.02 vs 1.01) but Stockport finished their chances while Bolton did not. Last season, Stockport completed a double, including a 5-0 thrashing at Edgeley. Stockport are unbeaten in the last four league meetings. The head-to-head xG aggregate this season favours Stockport on results but not on chances, underscoring the narrative of Stockport’s clinical edge. Bolton’s most recent win over Stockport is not in the database, highlighting the length of Stockport’s dominance. Challinor acknowledged the fortune in the opening-day win: ‘we’ve beat Bolton on the first game of the season, when we were probably a little bit fortunate.’ The 2-2 draw at Toughsheet in April denied Bolton three points in the title-chase finishing straight. This is the first Wembley meeting between the two clubs.

H2H — last five meetings

The Wembley Factor

Bolton return to Wembley for the second time in two years, having lost the 2024 League One play-off final 2-0 to Oxford United. That experience cuts both ways: familiarity with the occasion but also the memory of defeat. For Stockport, this is their first Wembley appearance in a Championship-deciding match. The neutral venue removes Bolton’s significant home advantage, potentially levelling the contest. Bolton’s home record (13-8-2) was among the best in the division, but their away form (6-10-7) was ordinary. Wembley, as a neutral ground, likely plays more like an away fixture for Bolton, which could blunt their usual attacking verve. Stockport’s away record (9-7-7) is better than Bolton’s, suggesting they may adapt more readily to the neutral setting. The 90,000-capacity stadium will be a new experience for many Stockport players, but Challinor’s extensive play-off experience — including finals won and lost — provides a steadying influence.

Goal-scoring trend — xG vs actual (season-long)

The Model — LR Calibration

The LR cal model is venue-aware, treating the fixture’s API-designated home side (Bolton) as the home team. On that default reading: Bolton 46.1% / draw 18.3% / Stockport 35.7% — Bolton clear favourite, just over the 45% threshold. But Wembley is a neutral venue, and the LR cal’s home-side bias is material. Re-running the model with home/away reversed flips the call: Stockport becomes the home team at 43.6% / draw 19.9% / Bolton 36.5%. The honest reading is the average of the two orientations — venue-symmetric: Bolton 41.3% / draw 19.1% / Stockport 39.6%. On that reading there is no clear favourite at result level, with the two sides effectively level on the night and an unusually low draw share. The 10pp Bolton-favouring gap disappears once the neutral-venue adjustment is applied, leaving a 1.7pp Bolton edge that is well inside the noise of a single-game prediction. The LR cal also under-predicts draws as a known L1-wide pathology; Poisson’s 24.9% is the more honest draw share.

The Model — Poisson + Dixon-Coles

The Poisson model gives Bolton a 44.3% win probability, draw 24.9%, Stockport 30.8%. The attack rates (lambda) are 1.56 for Bolton and 1.26 for Stockport, indicating a clearer attacking edge for Bolton than in some other finals. The conditional-modal scoreline, restricted to Bolton wins, is 1-0 with a probability of 0.21 within that restriction. The next most likely Bolton wins are 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The raw modal scoreline across all outcomes is 1-1 (11.7%), but the conditional-modal rule applies because LR cal favours Bolton. Both lambdas above 1.2 suggest fewer 0-0 draws than in some other play-off finals. The Poisson model’s draw probability of 24.9% is considered more accurate than LR cal’s 18.3%, given the known under-prediction issue. The expected goals totals (Bolton 1.56, Stockport 1.26) align with Bolton’s superior xG profile but also allow for a tight contest.

What the Data Disagrees On

Both models agree that Bolton are favoured, but the head-to-head record this season tells a different story. The models capture season-long form and squad quality, where Bolton’s xGD of +8.99 stands out. However, the head-to-head captures Stockport’s specific psychological hold on this fixture, with two wins and a draw in the last four meetings. The data also disagrees on the draw probability, with the LR model under-predicting it compared to Poisson. The models do not account for Stockport’s ability to win tight games against Bolton, as seen on the opening day. This tension between process (xG) and outcome (results) is the defining narrative of the final. The models also disagree on the likelihood of a high-scoring game: Poisson’s lambdas suggest a 1-0 or 2-1 outcome is most plausible, while the LR cal’s 18.3% draw implies a lower chance of a stalemate. Ultimately, the data cannot resolve whether Bolton’s underlying supremacy or Stockport’s head-to-head edge will prevail.

How has the League One model been doing?

Across the 2025-26 League One season, the LR calibration’s outcome accuracy reads 247 correct from 545 predictions (45%). Home / draw / away split of where the calls have and haven’t landed:

The Verdict

Models: goals_logreg_v1_cal (Platt-calibrated LR + player-rating features) for the 1X2 call; goals_poisson_v1 (Poisson + Dixon-Coles) for the scoreline grid. Predicted scoreline is the conditional modal — argmax over the Poisson grid restricted to cells consistent with the LR’s most-likely outcome. Probability framing: ≥45% in a three-way market = clear favourite; 35-45% with ≥8 pp gap = narrowly favoured / edge; 33-37% all three = near coin-flip.