Stockport County beat Stevenage 2-0 at Edgeley Park on Wednesday 13 May to win the League One play-off semi-final 3-0 on aggregate and book a Wembley date in the final. Louie Barry and Kyle Wootton settled the tie inside the first 30 minutes; the second half was a procession. The model had Stockport as clear favourites at 55.3% in regulation — the destination matched the lean, just earlier than the conditional-modal 1-0 scoreline suggested.
How it unfolded
The tie was effectively over inside half an hour. Stockport pressed from the first whistle; Barry forced a goal-line block from Daniel Phillips in the third minute, and won corner after corner in the opening ten. Edun’s break for the opener was the standout individual moment — three Stevenage shirts beaten on the left, advantage played, Barry curling it home from the edge of the box. Wootton’s strike fourteen minutes later put the result beyond reasonable doubt: 3-0 on aggregate, half-time, the tie won.
Stevenage tried to find a route back after the break but never threatened the comeback their position required. Their best moment came around the hour mark when Charlie Goode was denied from three yards out — Corey Addai saved with his legs, Goode could not adjust. Matt Phillips drew another save shortly after. Stockport went close at the other end through Oliver Norwood, whose long-range effort drew a strong save from Filip Marschall. Dave Challinor used his bench to manage out the closing third; both sides booked yellow cards in a niggly final fifteen minutes that never really lifted the game.
Key moments and key players
Louie Barry’s individual quality was the difference — the finish for the opener was the kind a struggling Stevenage defence had no answer for, and Stockport’s attack noticeably lost some of its bite when Barry was withdrawn for Jack Diamond just after the hour. Ben Osborn — match-winner in stoppage time at the Lamex on Saturday — assisted the opener tonight, his fingerprints all over both legs. Adetayo Edun’s left-sided running created the moment for the first goal and threatened repeatedly through the night.
For Stevenage, the absence of any sustained pressure was the story. Their best moment was a missed sitter; their second was a fierce Charlie Goode shot that flew so far over the bar it hit the digital scoreboard. Jamie Reid, who came into this leg with 14 league goals, had a quiet night on the periphery. Stevenage’s xG advantage on the night (1.19 vs 0.80) flatters them; a chunk of it came from chances they could not finish in the second half when the tie was already gone.
The model versus the result
Pre-match, the BTP model called Stockport as clear favourites in regulation at 55.3%, with Stevenage at 25.4% and a draw at 19.3%. The most likely scoreline was 1-0 Stockport.
The destination was right, the magnitude understated. A 2-0 sits inside the broader Poisson cluster of home wins (1-0, 2-1, 2-0) the model leans towards, and the conditional-modal 1-0 was bypassed via a second goal that arrived earlier than the model’s typical 60′-70′ goal-pacing would suggest. The xG of 0.80 for Stockport in a 2-goal performance is a slight finishing over-performance, but the structural call — Stockport home favourite, Stevenage upset path well-priced but unlikely — held.
Want to know what’s behind these numbers? Read our plain-English explainer: How the BTP Model Works.
Wembley awaits
Stockport reach the League One play-off final at Wembley, where they will meet the winner of Bradford City v Bolton on Thursday 14 May. Bolton carry a 1-0 lead from the first leg into Valley Parade — a single Bradford goal forces extra time, two takes them through outright in regulation. Whichever way that one falls, Stockport bring the form, the home-leg conviction, and a Barry-Wootton-Osborn axis that has dictated both nights of this tie.
📊 Pre-match preview — the model and aggregate-math read going in.
📡 Live commentary archive from the second leg — minute-by-minute timeline.
